Entering a pivotal weekend of Big Ten action, there are four teams with one loss or fewer in the league standings, each of whom are still in prime position to claim a spot in the Dec. 7 conference championship game on CBS. But sorting out the conference race is a bit more complex now that the Big Ten is an 18-team super conference with no divisions.
In fact, there's still a scenario in which three teams are left standing unbeaten at the season's end, which would leave a team with a perfect record on the outside looking in for the Big Ten Championship Game. Other potential scenarios include a four-way tie for first among one-loss teams and a three-way tie for second among one-loss teams.
Those are just a few of the virtually endless possibilities in the race for spots in the Big Ten title game entering the season's final month. If the frontrunner quartet of Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana start suddenly suffering losses, there's a group of five teams with two losses in league play that are also technically still alive.
As Week 10 action arrives — and hopefully brings more clarity — let's take a look at how the Big Ten tiebreaker possibilities are shaping up. But first, here's the breakdown of how ties will be settled:
- The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
- The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
- The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.
Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios
Four-way tie for first
One chaos scenario involves Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana each concluding the regular season with one conference loss and records of 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten). It would require:
- Oregon to lose one game in November
- Ohio State winning out with victories over both Indiana and Penn State
- Indiana and Penn State winning the rest of their games not against Ohio State
In that case, the first tiebreaker among the four teams would be head-to-head record among the tied teams. As a result, Oregon would take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game since they would have the following records in head-to-head play:
- Oregon: 1-0 (win over Ohio State)
- Ohio State: 2-1 (wins over Indiana/Penn State and a loss to Oregon)
- Penn State: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
- Indiana: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
While missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game would be disheartening on some level for the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers, they would each be well-positioned to make the CFP, especially since their lone losses would be against a strong Ohio State team.
Three-way tie for first
What if Oregon, Penn State and Indiana each win out and are 12-0 (9-0 Big Ten)? Well, the first thing you can expect is a lot of heat on Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who would have lost to both the Nittany Lions and the Hoosiers, which would eliminate the Buckeyes from the conference race and CFP picture.
But this is a scenario that would require going deeper down the tiebreaker list. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record of the teams involved. None of Oregon, Indiana or Penn State play each other, so that's off the table. From there, the teams would be compared based on record against all common conference opponents. But if they're all unbeaten, then they would all be tied on that front as well.
In that case, it would go to comparing the teams based on the cumulative conference winning percentage of all their conference opponents. The most likely outcome in that scenario would be an Oregon vs. Penn State matchup in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana would be the most likely to be left out because the Hoosiers' league schedule appears to be the weakest of the three entering November.
Three-way tie for second
Oregon faces a relatively manageable November schedule and should be favored by more than a touchdown in every game. If the Ducks win out, they are in with no questions asked.
In that scenario, however, there is still potential for a three-way tie in second place. How?
- Oregon wins out
- Ohio State wins out, beating Penn State and Indiana
- Penn State and Indiana each win the rest of their games, aside from when they play Ohio State
In that case, the Buckeyes would make the title game, rematching with Oregon, because of their 2-0 head-to-head record against Penn State and Indiana in the group of tied teams.
Cleanest scenarios
In one of the cleanest possible scenarios, Oregon would win out and secure its spot in the Big Ten Championship Game by virtue of an undefeated conference record. Then, one of the following scenarios would transpire:
Scenario A: Oregon vs. Penn State in Big Ten Championship Game
- Penn State wins out
- Indiana loses to Ohio State (or anyone else)
Scenario B: Oregon vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game
- Ohio State (or anyone else) beats Penn State
- Indiana wins out
Either of those scenarios would be clean enough to mitigate the need for any tiebreakers. However, the discourse around the College Football Playoff candidacy of a two-loss Ohio State team would make for uproarious debate heading into CFP selection day.
Big Ten contender résumés
Oregon (5-0)
Wins: UCLA (1-4), Michigan State (2-3), Ohio State (3-1), Purdue (0-4), Illinois (3-2)
Remaining: Michigan (3-2), Maryland (1-4), Wisconsin (3-2), Washington (2-3)
Indiana (5-0)
Wins: UCLA (1-4), Maryland (1-4), Northwestern (1-4), Nebraska (2-3), Washington (2-3),
Remaining: Michigan State (2-3), Michigan (3-2), Ohio State (3-1), Purdue (0-4)
Penn State (4-0)
Wins: Illinois (3-2), UCLA (1-4), USC (2-4), Wisconsin (3-2)
Remaining: Ohio State (3-1), Washington (2-3), Purdue (0-4), Minnesota (3-2), Maryland (1-4)
Ohio State (3-1)
Wins: Michigan State (2-3), Iowa (3-2), Nebraska (2-3)
Loss: Oregon (5-0)
Remaining: Penn State (4-0), Purdue (0-4), Northwestern (1-4), Indiana (5-0), Michigan (3-2)
