I love the Big Ten West since its inception in the 2014 season, and not just because it helped eliminate the Legends and Leaders monikers for the divisions, though that certainly didn't hurt. No, what I loved then and love now was seeing so many like-minded schools thrown together with plenty of regional rivals butting heads against one another every season to see which one would emerge from the scrum at the end.
Sure, you could argue that the Big Ten's geographical divisions left the league unbalanced, and it'd be an easy argument to make because you'd be right. They did and do. The three most powerful Big Ten programs are in the East, but that never bothered me much. I enjoy watching those three have to go at it every season just as much as I enjoy the slopfest that the West can be
But while the West has never been as powerful as the East, it was never quite as bad as many painted it to be. Well, at least that used to be the case.
The 2023 season will be the final year before the Big Ten eliminates divisions ahead of the great western expansion as the conference adds USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington and jumbles all 18 schools into one giant division. In its final season, the Big Ten West is leaning hard into the stereotypes that have dogged it since its inception.
It has never been as inept offensively as in 2023, nor has it been as weak overall. There have been years when the West didn't score a lot of points but at least won plenty of games against teams from the East or other Power Five leagues. That's not the case this year. No, it looks as if the division will go out with a whimper this year.
A couple of weeks after I donned a radiation suit and dug into Iowa's offensive output, I put it back on and dug into the division as a whole. What I found was as frightening as you'd expect.
| Season | Points per game | Yards per game | Yards per play | Points per drive | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 22.8 | 340.0 | 5.2 | 1.79 | 41.4% |
2022 | 22.9 | 352.6 | 5.2 | 1.79 | 41.2% |
2021 | 24.1 | 366.3 | 5.4 | 1.89 | 41.3% |
2020 | 25.5 | 370.2 | 5.3 | 2.02 | 42.7% |
2019 | 27.5 | 382.0 | 5.5 | 2.06 | 42.0% |
2018 | 28.6 | 405.8 | 5.8 | 2.14 | 43.2% |
2017 | 25.9 | 363.2 | 5.4 | 1.90 | 40.7% |
2016 | 25.7 | 364.7 | 5.3 | 1.93 | 40.5% |
2015 | 25.9 | 377.2 | 5.2 | No Data | No Data |
2014 | 29.0 | 393.7 | 5.6 | No Data | No Data |
Our database doesn't include some of the advanced statistics for the 2014 and 2015 seasons, and while I could've done more research to do the math myself, I didn't think it was worth the effort. The results from the seasons we do have paint a clear picture.
If the stats aren't bad enough, look at the win-loss record.
| Season | Win% vs B1G East | Win% vs P5 Noncon |
|---|---|---|
2023 | .250 | .250 |
2022 | .364 | .429 |
2021 | .455 | .571 |
2020 | .467 | 1.000* |
2019 | .455 | .429 |
2018 | .455 | .556 |
2017 | .364 | .667 |
2016 | .500 | .667 |
*only played two nonconference games due to COVID restrictions
Want to know the worst part? While the division hasn't always been great, at least there's been drama. If you look at those tables you see the division isn't much different than it was in 2022, but at least four teams had a chance to win it in the final weeks last year!
This Saturday's game between Wisconsin and Iowa might wrap it up before Halloween. A Wisconsin win would improve the Badgers to 3-0 in the Big Ten and nobody else in the West would have fewer than two losses. That would give the Badgers a two-game lead on everybody and effectively a three-game lead on Iowa and Purdue thanks to the tie-breaker. Sure, the Badgers might lose a game or two down the stretch, but is there anybody else in the division you'd trust not to keep losing games?
I don't.
Michigan is only getting more efficient
No. 2️⃣ delivers on the second play of the game.
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 7, 2023
Will Johnson's Pick-6 gets things started tonight in Minneapolis.@Willj1228 x @UMichFootball
📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/ZVaYdsQrb4
I wrote about Michigan's dominance last week, and the Wolverines seemed only to grow more efficient in their destruction of Minnesota on Saturday. The Wolverines won 52-10 while running only 56 plays on offense. Through three quarters they had 45 points on 44 plays, averaging more than a point per play. Two pick sixes played a part in that, but it's still a remarkable statistic.
Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck's description of the Wolverines during his postgame press conference summed it up pretty well.
"First and foremost, congratulations to Michigan," said Fleck. "They're as good as advertised. I said this on the radio a second ago: I think they're the best football team I've seen in 11 years of being a head coach. I've never seen a football team like that, that deep. I'm not sure if this is true, but I was told this walking off the field I think they traveled 75 people and maybe played like 74 of them. I don't know.
"I mean, they're one of the deepest teams, one of the best teams, one of the biggest teams, fastest teams, strongest teams and they do not make mistakes. They are truly like a boa constrictor and they do not beat themselves. They're very good at each position. They're very aligned with everything that they do. They know who they are and they go and execute that game plan. There were times they did it it at will tonight."
I can't disagree with a word the man said. This team is so ruthlessly efficient that it's boring to watch. They suck all the drama out of every game from the first snap. We can talk about the schedule until the cows come home, but I don't know how you can pick anybody else to win the Big Ten based on what you've seen so far.
Gut Reads of the Week
Every week I pick every Big Ten game against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers, just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
Iowa at Wisconsin: Again, if Wisconsin wins this game it wraps up the West for all intents and purposes, and I fully expect the Badgers to win. That said, I don't think Luke Fickell's team looks anything like he envisions. The Dairy Raid offense looks like it was left on the counter a little too long. While the Badgers have moments on offense, they're inconsistent and struggled to put up points last week against Rutgers. They should struggle again against Iowa. Do not overlook Tanner Mordecai's tendency to put the ball in danger against an Iowa team that consistently forces QBs to put the ball in danger. This game should be every bit as ugly as you'd expect, which makes asking the Badgers to cover 10 points a big ask. Iowa +10
- Indiana at No. 2 Michigan -- Michigan -34
- No. 3 Ohio State at Purdue -- Purdue +19.5
- Michigan State at Rutgers -- Michigan State +5.5
- UMass at No. 6 Penn State -- UMass +43
- Illinois at Maryland -- Maryland -14
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 8-10-1
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 7, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned more than $2,000 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons -- and find out.
