A horrible thing happened to Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy this weekend: He became the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. With USC's Caleb Williams having two consecutive rough performances and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. looking ordinary as the Huskies survived Arizona State, McCarthy became the favorite to win the sport's most prestigious individual award at sportsbooks across the land.
The man who was +2200 to win it a few weeks ago now sits around +250.
So now, like Williams, Penix, and every other Heisman favorite before him, fans and analysts alike will tune in to his every movement and wait until he makes a single mistake so they can flock to the next favorite.
As a Heisman voter, I'm not allowed to disclose my vote before the winner is announced, and that's not a problem for me because I don't know who's getting my vote. I won't know until I'm filling out my ballot. I'm one of those freaks who likes to let the entire season play out before coming to a conclusion. So, I'm not here to tell you if I am voting for McCarthy or anybody else. I'm here to explain why J.J. McCarthy could win the Heisman this season. Why he could avoid the backlash of being imperfect.
While anybody who follows college football knows Michigan has dominated teams all season, most outside the Big Ten have paid little attention to the Wolverines. While some talk about Michigan's schedule being overblown, it's true the Wolverines haven't had the kind of marquee matchup to garner national attention yet. The last the country at large remembers of McCarthy he was throwing two pick sixes in a semifinal loss to TCU. It was a terrible way for a promising season -- which included a four-touchdown performance against Ohio State -- to end.
What most haven't seen yet is that McCarthy has improved in 2023 because Michigan is trying something wild and innovative: it's developing him as a player.
Dart. pic.twitter.com/SUs4QwWs7g
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) October 22, 2023
One of my million pet peeves about modern college football is that we see QBs come to campus more polished than ever before. Thanks to personal coaches and camps, the 18-year-old walking into the dorm for the first time has a better grasp on playing the position than guys did even a decade ago. The problem is we also have a lot of offensive gurus in the sport who then take these kids and put them into a system that doesn't help them improve.
"You're not great at reading defenses? That's fine, we'll only have a primary read on this play, and if it's not there, run."
It's hard to blame the coaches because some are so good at scheming up open receivers that it works. However, while you can coach to a player's strengths and avoid his weaknesses, you should still try to address those weaknesses to make them the best player possible. It legitimately bothers me to see ultra-talented kids arrive as freshmen, show a ton of promise and then leave college three seasons later as the same player they were when they showed up. All they've really done is added 10-15 pounds of lean muscle.
McCarthy was a five-star prospect out of high school who arrived to Michigan with a lot of strengths and plenty of weaknesses. Last year, Michigan rolled McCarthy out of the pocket and used play action often because that's when McCarthy was at his best. He was not nearly as good dropping back, staying in the pocket and firing the ball down the field.
He's a lot better at it this year, though! McCarthy, Jim Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore and QB coach Kirk Campbell all deserve a lot of credit for diagnosing and working to fix the problem. Look at this table for an idea of how much improvement there's been by season.
| J.J. McCarthy | Passing Eff. | Yards per attempt | TD% | INT% | 1st Down% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 Overall | 155.0 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 35.4 |
2023 Overall | 199.1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 51.5 |
2022 Play Action | 220.0 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 50.0 |
2023 Play Action | 242.3 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 63.6 |
2022 No Play Action | 131.3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 30.5 |
2023 No Play Action | 184.1 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 47.6 |
2022 Out of pocket | 159.1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 39.7 |
2023 Out of pocket | 298.5 | 13.7 | 30.4 | 4.3 | 65.2 |
2022 In pocket | 149.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 33.7 |
2023 In pocket | 176.6 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 48.2 |
McCarthy has developed into a more complete QB, and that's why he has a chance to win the Heisman and why Michigan is a legitimate national title contender. Yes, there are plenty of questions left to answer. It's possible McCarthy could have a bad game against Penn State or Ohio State, both of whom boast elite defenses that would give every starting QB in the country fits.
But thanks to McCarthy's development as a player, J.J. and the Wolverines are better equipped to deal with any problem yet to come their way. I wish more programs would follow suit.
Don't look now but...
Nebraska is back! OK, Nebraska isn't back, but the improvement the Cornhuskers have shown over the last month-plus has flown far below the radar. I don't know if it's that we're all so focused on how bad the Big Ten West is -- especially Iowa's offense -- but after beating Northwestern 17-9 Saturday the Huskers have won four of their last five. They're 4-3 on the season and control their destiny in the Big Ten West.
That's right, the Huskers could win the division. There's even a chance they could be 7-3 before facing Wisconsin on the road the weekend before Thanksgiving.
Scott Frost didn't get to a bowl game in any of his four seasons, but Matt Rhule might end the bowl drought in Year 1, and he's going to do it with an offense that's very banged up and relying on inexperienced players. How did this happen? Well, the Big Ten West being bad hasn't hurt. But unlike Frost, who seemed more than happy to bang his head into a concrete wall repeatedly in hopes the wall would break, Rhule quickly saw a problem and fixed it.
Jeff Sims was the transfer QB that would help keep the program afloat ... until he wasn't. After struggling mightily and killing the Huskers with costly turnovers in his first two starts, Rhule switched to Heinrich Haarbert against Northern Illinois.
There's nothing about Haarberg's game that I'd describe as pretty, but he's been effective enough. Ironically, Nebraska's offense looks more like Tom Osborne's I-Option than anything the Huskers have run since. Granted, Haarberg is more former Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch than Tommie Frazier, but what works, works.
Nebraska is taking care of the football on offense and playing good defense. I doubt it's the long-term plan, but it's working well enough right now.
Stat of the week
There's been plenty of talk about James Franklin and Penn State's struggles against top-10 teams, but how about we talk about Ohio State's dominance of them? The Buckeyes improved to 23-8 against top-10 teams over the last 10 years when they beat Penn State last Saturday.
Here's a look at how that stacks up to the winningest programs in the sport against anybody in that time.
| Team | Winning Percentage L10 seasons |
|---|---|
.903 | |
Ohio State | .895 |
.864 | |
.837 | |
.792 | |
Ohio State vs top-10 teams | .742 |
Gut reads of the week
Every week I pick every Big Ten game against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers, just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
No. 3 Ohio State at Wisconsin: Ohio State overcame Penn State, but the problems on offense remain. The possible return of Emeka Egbuka and TreVeyon Henderson certainly wouldn't hurt, but even at full strength, this team has had trouble running the ball. Kyle McCord looks great when Marvin Harrison Jr. makes plays, but he's been inconsistent. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a lot of kinks to work out on offense but remains pretty solid on defense. With the game at Camp Randall and the spread over two touchdowns, I have to think the Badgers keep it respectable. Wisconsin +14.5
- Indiana at No. 10 Penn State -- Indiana +32
- Maryland at Northwestern -- Maryland -13.5
- Michigan State at Minnesota -- Minnesota -7
- Purdue at Nebraska -- Purdue +2.5
Last Week: 1-5
OveraLOL: 12-18-1
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 9, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons -- and find out.
