The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns meet Saturday at noon ET in the 2018 Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in the history of the storied rivalry. The Longhorns (9-3) won the Red River Showdown during the regular season, 48-45, after they withstood an Oklahoma rally and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. In the latest Oklahoma vs. Texas odds, the Sooners are 9.5-point favorites. The line opened at 7.5, but money has been pouring in on Oklahoma all week. The over-under for total points scored has dropped to 78 from an opener of 79. Before you lock in your Oklahoma vs. Texas picks and predictions for the Big 12 Championship 2018, check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college football. He has had another strong year, hitting 60 percent of his spread selections for SportsLine members. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of Big 12 programs and boasts a record of 10-1 in against the spread picks involving Oklahoma or Texas.
Just last week, Nagel advised SportsLine members that Texas (-15) would struggle against Kansas as the Longhorns faced a must-win scenario in order to make the 2018 Big 12 Championship Game. The result: Texas fought off a late Kansas rally to prevail 24-17, and anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked an easy winner.
Now, he has studied Texas vs. Oklahoma from every possible angle and released a strong Big 12 Championship pick that is only available at SportsLine.
Nagel knows that Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray likely solidified his status as a Heisman Trophy finalist with perhaps his most impressive performance of the season against West Virginia last week when it mattered most. The Texas A&M transfer accounted for 478 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns. The Sooners needed all of his production to hold off the Mountaineers, who scored 56 points and saw their own Heisman candidate, Will Grier, throw for 539 yards and four touchdowns.
But Oklahoma's much-maligned defense, which ranks No. 110 in the country, also made game-changing plays with a pair of turnovers turned into touchdowns. Caleb Kelly returned a Grier fumble 10 yards for a score and a two-touchdown lead in the second quarter. Curtis Bolton did the same with a 48-yard fumble in the fourth to provide the Sooners a decisive 59-49 edge.
They will likely need another outburst in order to cover against a Texas club that has proven to be a formidable opponent under coach Tom Herman.
The Longhorns pushed Oklahoma to the wire last year, then prevailed on a game-winning field goal at the horn in Week 6 this season after the Sooners had rallied from a three-touchdown deficit.
Texas faltered with back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia by four combined points before salvaging its title hopes with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas in a three-game set of must-win contests. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger threw for 154 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for the clinching touchdown against the Jayhawks. The Longhorns' defense held Kansas to 296 total yards and kept the Jayhawks scoreless until the fourth quarter.
We can tell you Nagel is leaning toward the Under, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He has dissected this matchup and identified the critical x-factor will determine which side of the spread hits hard. He's only sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.
Who wins Oklahoma vs. Texas? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from a senior analyst who's hitting 91 percent of his picks involving these teams, and find out.
