It felt like a marriage doomed from the start.
When Luke Fickell took the Wisconsin job at the end of the 2022 season and announced Phil Longo as his offensive coordinator hire, much was made of the new Dairy Raid offense. Longo had success at North Carolina and produced two NFL quarterbacks, as well as pro receivers and running backs, running a spread offense that led to a lot of explosive plays and points. The hope was that he'd bring the same success to Wisconsin.
He didn't. Wisconsin announced Longo's firing Sunday following their close loss to Oregon.
| 2024 Wisconsin Offense in B1G Play | Stat (Rank of 18) |
|---|---|
Points per drive | 2.00 (9th) |
Success rate | 40.8% (10th) |
EPA per play | -0.03 (12th) |
Explosive play rate | 10.4% (16th) |
Score rate | 32.6% (11th) |
Red zone drive rate | 29.1% (11th) |
Before it became clear it wasn't working, while there was still the early Dairy Raid excitement, underneath it all was the lingering question of whether it work in Madison? This was a program that emerged from a decades-long stretch of anonymity under Barry Alvarez in the early 1990s and found an identity built on being tougher than you were. It was a program built on the big beefy boys of Wisconsin along the trenches, and sometimes even larger running backs, grinding you into dust. When Alvarez left, Bret Bielema carried on the tradition. But when Bielema left for Arkansas, Wisconsin did the jilted ex thing and went a different direction with Gary Andersen.
As with most rebound relationships, it was over quickly, and in came Paul Chryst, a former Wisconsin QB who had served as offensive coordinator under Bielema. Chryst was a return to the norm, which made the Fickell splash and Longo hire even more noticeable once Chryst was shown the door.
What seemed oddest about it all is that it never felt like Fickell was totally bought into the idea himself, which made the Longo hire awkward to begin with. Cracks began to appear in the foundation as early as last season, and this year rumors of disconnect between the two coaches only grew louder. So, in that sense, the news that Longo was fired didn't come as much of a surprise, even if the timing caught some off guard.
Of course, while Fickell and Longo may not have seen eye-to-eye on everything, they're far from the only coaches working together who can say that. In the end, the results doomed Longo.
While it may not be fair to pin the blame for Wisconsin's offensive woes solely on Longo, considering starting QB Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the season in the Alabama game, the situation is the situation. Wisconsin's defense did everything you could ask of it to give the team a chance to pull off a huge upset and give Fickell his first statement win against the No. 1 team in the country on Saturday night. The offense did nothing to help, and I wonder if that's what proved to be the final straw for Fickell.
The offense failing to help against Oregon wasn't a new development. The Van Dyke injury matters, but Braedyn Locke was starting his seventh game and there's been little progress made in his development. In fact, things have mostly gone backward after Locke performed well enough in wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, but he's offered little in three straight losses against much tougher competition. Against Oregon, Locke was 12-of-28 passing for 96 yards, and 43 of those 96 yards came on one completion to Vinny Anthony.
| Braedyn Locke as starter | Record | Passing efficiency | Completion rate | Passing yards | Yards per attempt | TD rate | INT rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 4 starts | 3-1 | 142.8 | 61.5% | 939 | 8.6 | 5.5% | 4.6% |
Last 3 starts | 0-3 | 86.3 | 49.5% | 450 | 4.5 | 2.0% | 4.0% |
Which is another problem Wisconsin has dealt with: they don't have the talent. If you're not a Wisconsin fan, you probably can't name a skill position player on the offense. There's an argument to be made that Phil Longo didn't do a good enough job scheming his players open, but there's also an argument Wisconsin as a program needs to do a better job finding and recruiting players who can get themselves open.
No matter who Longo's replacement is in 2025 or what the offense's overall philosophy is, an improved roster will make a much bigger difference in the unit's ability to perform and win games.
If that happens, I'd bet Fickell and his new offensive coordinator find they have a lot more in common.
Playoff hopeful Week 12 rooting interests
Do I enjoy how much attention the College Football Playoff gets when conference races are still wide open? No. Do I understand that you do? Yes.
So, with four Big Ten teams still competing for a playoff spot (and the Big Ten title!) and so many more arguments about the strength of schedule, resumes, and other nebulous topics to be had, it's a good idea to give you all a handy guide to know which teams you should be rooting for this weekend and whom you should be rooting against.
It's not a perfect guide, but it's a good start, and it assumes that, you know, you win, too. But if you don't, these results could help you survive a loss.
| Team | Root For | Root Against |
|---|---|---|
Maryland (vs. Iowa), Michigan (vs. Northwestern), Michigan State (vs. Purdue), Nebraska (vs. Wisconsin), UCLA (vs. USC) | Alabama (at Oklahoma), BYU (at Arizona State), Colorado (at Kansas), Miami (vs. Wake Forest), Notre Dame (vs. Army), Ole Miss (at Florida), SMU (at Virginia), Texas (vs. Kentucky), Texas A&M (at Auburn) | |
Iowa (at Maryland), Michigan State (vs. Purdue), Nebraska (vs. Wisconsin), Penn State (at Minnesota) | Alabama (at Oklahoma), BYU (at Arizona State), Colorado (at Kansas), Miami (vs. Wake Forest), Notre Dame (vs. Army), Ole Miss (at Florida), SMU (at Virginia), Texas (vs. Kentucky), Texas A&M (at Auburn) | |
Oregon | Chaos | Anybody you want, as long as you beat Washington next week you'll be a 5-seed at worst |
Penn State | Illinois (at Rutgers), Ohio State (vs. Indiana), Purdue (at Michigan State), USC (at UCLA), West Virginia (vs. UCF), Wisconsin (at Nebraska) | Alabama (at Oklahoma), BYU (at Arizona State), Colorado (at Kansas), Miami (vs. Wake Forest), Notre Dame (vs. Army), Ole Miss (at Florida), SMU (at Virginia), Texas (vs. Kentucky), Texas A&M (at Auburn) |
B1G Meme of the Week
While we're on the subject of the playoff and how teams are discussed by the CFP Selection Committee, this seemed apropos. Stolen from a user named MysteriousEdge5643 on Reddit.
Lessons in end zone paint schemes
"When you look down and there's a pylon in front of you..."
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 16, 2024
"That's not a good sign." pic.twitter.com/DKn5dDe3VN
Perhaps the out of bounds portion of the field shouldn't be painted the same color as the end zone. Don't get me wrong, this is still very much on De'Nylon Morrissette who, who, who oughta know better, but we should always try to make it easier on the players.
Anyway, if that play doesn't summarize Purdue's entire season, perhaps this stat will help. The Boilermakers have played against four teams currently ranked in the top 10 this season. They've been outscored 195-17 in those games.
Stat of the Week
Washington just got its first sack since the Iowa game. That was on October 12.
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) November 16, 2024
Washington seems to get sacks in spurts. The Huskies had seven sacks against Eastern Michigan in their second game of the season and ended a three-game sackless stretch with six against UCLA on Friday night. That means 13 of Washington's 20 sacks on the season have come in two games.
Random Visual of the Week
You want to be on the top left here. Yes, that's right, it's better to cause negative plays (plays that result in a loss of yardage) on defense than it is to suffer them on offense. The bottom right is The Bad Place. Is it a bad sign that nearly half the league is in the bottom right quadrant? Probably, yeah!
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.
All Big Ten college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State: I do have concerns about Indiana considering they looked their worst in their win over Michigan, and Michigan is the closest thing the Hoosiers have seen to Ohio State. I say that knowing the gap between Michigan and Ohio State is quite significant. Still, while I wonder how successful the Indiana offense will be against the Buckeyes defense, I do believe the Indiana defense can cause enough problems for Ohio State's offensive line that the Hoosiers will stay in the game. Indiana +12.5
No. 24 Illinois at Rutgers -- Illinois +1.5
Iowa at Maryland -- Maryland +6
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota -- Minnesota +12.5
Northwestern at Michigan -- Michigan -12.5
Wisconsin at Nebraska -- Nebraska -2.5
USC at UCLA -- UCLA +4.5
Last Week: 5-2
Season: 58-49-1
