You have to imagine the Big Ten offices in Rosemont, Illinois, were happy Sunday afternoon when the latest AP Top 25 poll was released. Not only was Oregon still on top, receiving every single first-place vote, but Ohio State was right behind them. In fourth was Penn State, and in fifth, causing millions around the globe to rub their eyes in disbelief, was Indiana.
The Hoosiers played arguably their worst game of the season on Saturday, but thanks to losses elsewhere and likely some remaining brand recognition with Michigan, the they climbed three spots to No. 5.
Four teams in the top five is typically the kind of poll placement reserved for the SEC. But with Ole Miss taking down Georgia, leaving only two SEC teams (No. 3 Texas and No. 6 Tennessee) with fewer than two losses, cannibalism has overtaken the southeast. Unfortunately, while this gives Big Ten fans some reason to puff their chests and decry the death of the SEC, I don't know that I'd get too loud.
Things look great for the Big Ten at the moment, but even with the current standings, I don't think it's crazy to foresee an outcome that includes five SEC teams in the College Football Playoff field and only three from the Big Ten. It may not be the likely outcome, but it's possible. How?
Let's take a look at the Big Ten Playoff Doomsday Scenario.
First of all, while it's fun to point out that the Big Ten has four of the top five teams in the poll, do you know how many other Big Ten teams are ranked? Zip. Zero. Nada. There is a giant chasm between the top of the league and everybody else. Meanwhile, the SEC has nine (56% of the league) ranked. Now, you can scream about SEC bias, and while there's certainly some truth to it, there's also a lot of copium.
The reason so many SEC teams remain ranked is because while they've lost games, they've also won games against the other ranked teams, and beating good teams keeps you ranked. The top four Big Ten teams? They're a combined 36-2, and both losses came to one another. The four are a combined 22-0 against the other 14 teams in the conference. Making matters worse, those 22 wins have come by an average of 22.64 points per game. They are not only beating them, they're blowing them out, and it's not one team carrying all that weight. Penn State's average margin of victory is the smallest -- and it's 15.4 points. Everybody point and laugh at Penn State! It's only beating them by a little more than two touchdowns!
This could matter quite a bit when it comes to fighting for at-large bids among teams from other conferences. Who you lose to matters, but who you beat matters a lot, too. For the sake of this exercise, I played out the rest of the Big Ten season, and here's what the standings could look like should home teams hold serve most of the time (I didn't go through every single tiebreaker, so the order may not be exact).
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record |
|---|---|---|
1. Oregon | 12-0 | 9-0 |
2. Ohio State | 11-1 | 8-1 |
2. Indiana | 11-1 | 8-1 |
4. Penn State | 10-2 | 7-2 |
5. Iowa | 7-5 | 5-4 |
5. Minnesota | 7-5 | 5-4 |
5. Illinois | 7-5 | 5-4 |
8. Michigan | 6-6 | 4-5 |
6-6 | 4-5 | |
8. UCLA | 6-6 | 4-5 |
8. Washington | 6-6 | 4-5 |
8. Wisconsin | 6-6 | 4-5 |
13. Maryland | 6-6 | 3-6 |
13. Nebraska | 6-6 | 3-6 |
13. Rutgers | 6-6 | 3-6 |
13. Northwestern | 5-7 | 3-6 |
13. USC | 5-7 | 3-6 |
18. Purdue | 1-11 | 0-9 |
In this case, Oregon and Ohio State would play in the Big Ten Championship Game because Indiana's sole loss was to Ohio State. Penn State's second loss came on the road against Minnesota. You can argue it's not likely to happen, but I'd counter by pointing out that, again, Penn State hasn't been as dominant against the rest of the league as the other three, and the game is in Minneapolis. The Nittany Lions have played only three road games all year and trailed at halftime against both USC and Wisconsin. What if they're unable to dig out of an early hole against a Minnesota team that also beat USC and whose only home loss came in a two-point loss to North Carolina to open the season? Maybe it isn't likely, but it certainly isn't impossible.
Playing it forward, let's say Oregon beats Ohio State again to win the league and earn a bye. At 11-2, with both losses to Oregon, I don't see a scenario where Ohio State is left out, both for its resume and because I don't think the CFP committee will punish conference championship game losers too harshly.
But are Indiana and Penn State certainties? What if Indiana's loss to Ohio State was by 21 points or more? If so, the Hoosiers are 11-1 and have looked impressive, but they were blown out by the Buckeyes (the committee typically doesn't like blowout losses), and their best win is Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, UCLA or Washington. I'll let you pick. They're all 6-6. Indiana won't have a win against a team with a winning record in this scenario.
Penn State is 10-2 with a home loss to Ohio State and a road loss to Minnesota. Its best win is either a home win over 7-5 Illinois or perhaps a road win over West Virginia, depending on how the Mountaineers finish. Again, you can withstand losses if they're to good teams, but you need strong wins to balance them out.
But what about what's happening everywhere else?
Notre Dame wins out and is 11-1, it's in. Boise State wins the Mountain West and gets the Group of Five bid. Those are two of the eight at-large spots gone. Six are left. What happens in the Big 12 if Colorado and BYU reach the Big 12 Championship Game and Coach Prime knocks off a 12-0 BYU? Colorado gets the Big 12's auto-berth, but would the committee really leave a 12-1 BYU out of the playoff if its sole loss was in the conference title game? Again, I don't think the committee will punish teams for losing conference championship games the way they do regular season games, and BYU would still have two wins over ranked teams -- SMU and Kansas State (and maybe a third if Arizona State finishes strong). So BYU is in. There are five at-large bids left.
In the ACC, what happens if Clemson and SMU win out and Miami loses its regular-season finale at Syracuse? We then get the Mustangs and Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson wins to get the ACC's auto bid and SMU falls to 11-2 with losses to a 12-1 BYU and an 11-2 ACC champion. It has a win over a ranked Louisville squad as well as wins over a Duke team that might be 8-4 and a TCU team that could finish with seven or eight wins, too.
As for the SEC, there are far too many permutations to work out here, but long story short, the league could have roughly a billion two-loss teams with a case to make and impressive resumes.
I immediately believe that, in this scenario, Penn State would be out. Its second loss to Minnesota and lack of an impressive win would doom it when comparing its resume to SMU and a host of different two-loss SEC teams. I don't believe Indiana would suffer the same fate. While the Hoosiers wouldn't have a win to hang their hats on, it's hard for me to believe the committee would leave an 11-1 Big Ten team out of the 12-team field. That said, the committee left an undefeated ACC champion out of the playoff last year in favor of an SEC team, so I can't say there isn't a slight chance Indiana would be omitted.
For example, what happens if Indiana's resume (blowout loss to Ohio State, no impressive wins) is compared to a 10-2 Georgia (losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, wins over SEC champion Texas, ACC champion Clemson and Tennessee)? Can you say with a high level of confidence the committee would roll with the Hoosiers in that scenario? I sure can't.
As unlikely as this all might be -- hypotheticals are fun! -- the fact remains it's all still possible. At the end of the day, I believe the Big Ten will get three teams into the playoff at a minimum and will get four in more times than not.
But nothing is guaranteed. Yes, it's nice to have four of the top five, but when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture, I'd rather have nine of the top 25.
Stop coaching scared
NO GOOD 😱
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 9, 2024
Purdue misses the 21-yard field goal attempt pic.twitter.com/477Mc7hlKN
I did not watch much of Ohio State's 45-0 win over Purdue last week because it was quickly apparent we weren't going to see the most hilarious possible outcome of the weekend in Columbus, Ohio. However, I did see something that made me want to throw my remote control at my television.
After Ohio State took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, Purdue responded with what would be its most impressive drive of the day. The Boilermakers went 72 yards in 11 plays against one of the best defenses in the country. Sadly, facing a fourth-and-goal at the 3-yard line, Ryan Walters made a choice that made my brain explode.
On the road, with what might be his team's best chance to score a touchdown all day, he sent the field goal team out. It was an awful choice, and not just because the kicker missed the 21-yard attempt! When you're a 38-point underdog, and you're already down 7-0, you aren't getting back into the game with a damn field goal. You can beat inferior competition with field goals, but you can't beat superior opponents with them.
It was an awful choice, and one Sherrone Moore made with Michigan later in the day.
Michigan trailed Indiana 17-3 at halftime and then opened the second half with a punt. It seemed like the game might be over, but Michigan's defense intercepted Kurtis Rourke's first pass on the ensuing drive to set the Wolverines up with the ball at the Indiana 7-yard line. Four plays later, Moore sent Dominic Zvada out to kick a 22-yard field goal. He made it to cut the lead to 17-6, but it was still an awful decision.
The Wolverines should've gone for it. If they score, it's suddenly 17-10. Let's not forget that after kicking the field goal, Michigan cut Indiana's lead to 17-15 early in the fourth but failed to get the 2-point conversion. They wouldn't have needed a 2-point conversion had they scored the touchdown earlier.
And if they'd failed to get the touchdown earlier, they'd have still lost the game just like they did by kicking the field goal.
Spend the money, Michigan
Aside from my anger with the coaching decisions made by Michigan in its 20-15 loss to Indiana, there was another thought I couldn't get out of my head. I don't pay close attention to recruiting during the season because there's far too much else going on, but I have caught wind of the Bryce Underwood rumors.
For those who don't know, Underwood is the No. 1 player in the 2025 recruiting class. He's a five-star QB currently committed to LSU whom my Cover 3 Podcast co-host Bud Elliott -- somebody who knows this stuff far better than most people on the planet -- says is the closest thing he's seen to Cam Newton in high school since Cam Newton.
Underwood is a native of Belleville, Michigan, and there are whispers that the Wolverines are looking to flip him from LSU, and they may do so. I have no idea if they will. What I do know is that Michigan had better force Underwood to turn down a ridiculous amount of NIL money because the Wolverines desperately need a quarterback.
As I watched the Wolverines flail against the Hoosiers, I saw an Indiana team that took a quarterback who had proven himself worthy in the MAC against a Michigan team with three quarterbacks who should all be playing in the MAC.
Until Michigan changes that, it'll be a middling Big Ten team no matter how often Sherrone Moore kicks field goals when he shouldn't or lets the clock run before finally calling a timeout.
Iowa hates travel
Iowa lost to UCLA on the road 20-17 Friday night, dropping the Hawkeyes to 1-3 on the road this season. I was struck with the notion that Iowa's defense seems to drop off considerably away from home, so I looked into the numbers afterward to confirm if this is the case.
It is. Here's a comparison of the Iowa defense at home versus on the road.
| Iowa Defense | Success rate | Points per possession | Explosive play rate | EPA per pass | EPA per rush | Yards per play | Missed tackle rate | Negative play rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At Home | 65.2% | 0.80 | 7.76% | 0.23 | 0.23 | 4.5 | 8.9% | 34.1% |
On Road | 55.9% | 2.30 | 13.91% | 0.00 | -0.12 | 5.9 | 15.6% | 23.3% |
That's a pretty significant change in performance, isn't it? Of course, some of that is skewed by playing Ohio State on the road because Ohio State is pretty good, and one game can skew a small sample size. Still, even when we take the Ohio State game out of the equation, there is a stark difference.
| Iowa Defense | Success rate | Points per possession | Explosive play rate | EPA per pass | EPA per rush | Yards per play | Missed tackle rate | Negative play rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At Home | 65.2% | 0.80 | 7.76% | 0.23 | 0.23 | 4.5 | 8.9% | 34.1% |
On Road (w/o Ohio St) | 57.2% | 2.00 | 14.43% | 0.07 | -0.12 | 5.8 | 17.2% | 25.4% |
What's going on here? Is it jet lag? Do Iowa players run faster and tackle better when spending the previous evening in the comfort of their own beds? It's not unusual for teams to perform worse on the road than at home, but you don't typically see such a large difference in performance.
Random stat visual of the week
You want to be on the bottom right here. Ohio State's done so well in the red zone on both sides of the ball that it skews the overall chart because Indiana, Iowa, Oregon and Penn State have all been above average on both sides too.
Still, it's another example of the divide that exists in the Big Ten this season.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.
All Big Ten college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin: Oregon has been running roughshod over every Big Ten team not named Ohio State, and I don't know how likely we'll see anything different this weekend. The Badgers had a nice run against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, but those three are a combined 4-14 in Big Ten play. They've lost two straight since. The Ducks are yet to beat a Big Ten team not named Ohio State by fewer than 21 points, and that includes three road games already. Oregon -14
UCLA at Washington -- Washington -3.5
No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern -- Northwestern +29.5
Michigan State at Illinois -- Illinois -2.5
No. 6 Penn State at Purdue -- Penn State -28.5
Nebraska at USC -- USC -9
Rutgers at Maryland -- Rutgers +6.5
Last Week: 2-4
Season: 53-47-1
