The circumstances are eerily similar, but the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide hope for a different result Saturday night when they host the Texas A&M Aggies. The SEC West foes were in identical spots entering last year's meeting, almost exactly a year ago, with Bama 5-0 and ranked No. 1 and A&M at 3-2. The Aggies pulled off a huge 41-38 upset in prime time, but that one was at Kyle Field. The Tide will try to return the favor under the bright lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in this one. They moved back to No. 1 after beating No. 20 Arkansas 49-26 on the road last Saturday, a game that seemed in doubt until the Tide dominated the fourth quarter. Georgia struggled against Missouri, providing an opening for Bama to surge back to the top. The Aggies dropped out of the rankings, as they followed consecutive victories against ranked teams with a 42-24 loss to Mississippi State last weekend.
Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide have won and covered at least a 40-point spread in all three home games this season. They are 24-point favorites in the latest Texas A&M vs. Alabama odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under for total points is set at 48. Saturday's game can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+ with their must-have Premium plan.
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And before making any Alabama vs. Texas A&M picks or bets, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Texas A&M vs. Alabama and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Alabama vs. Texas A&M:
- Alabama vs. Texas A&M spread: Alabama -24
- Alabama vs. Texas A&M over/under: 48 points
- Alabama vs. Texas A&M money line: Aggies +1250, Crimson Tide -2800
- TAMU: It is 10-7 ATS in road games under Jimbo Fisher (since 2018)
- ALA: It is 54-49 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Saban (since 2007)
- Texas A&M vs. Alabama picks: See picks here
- Alabama vs. Texas A&M streaming: Paramount+
Why Alabama can cover
Alabama is 4-1 against the spread this season, and teams have had a lot of trouble keeping up. The Tide have the highest point differential in FBS at plus-187, as they score 48.4 points per game (fourth-highest) while allowing just 11 (fifth-lowest). Bryce Young's shoulder injury is a concern, but A&M isn't exactly solid at QB either, and Alabama has far more talent on both sides of the ball. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 206 yards last week, averaging 11.4 yards per carry. The Aggies defense is allowing 170 yards per game on the ground (99th).
Backup quarterback Jalen Milroe stepped in after Bryce Young injured his shoulder last week and rushed for 91 yards. The Tide are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 at home, and Nick Saban is 29-0 straight-up in October home games. The Alabama offense ranks in the top five in the nation in total yards (530 per game) and scoring (48.4 points) while A&M is outside the top 100 (336 yards, 21.8 points). Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. finished fifth in Heisman voting last year (Young won it), and he has nine tackles for loss, including five sacks, both top five in FBS.
Why Texas A&M can cover
Texas A&M was an 18.5-point home underdog last season, and while it is on the road this time, the Tide could be without Young (shoulder, questionable). The Aggies have QB questions of their own, but they are likely to rely on defense and the running game. Starter Max Johnson has a thumb injury, and backup QB Haynes King struggled last week, but running back Devon Achane has been a bright spot for the Aggies. He is 23rd in the nation in rushing with 466 yards, and he averages 5.8 per carry. He had 34 yards on seven carries in a backup role in last year's game.
The Aggies had two takeaways in the victory last year, and they have five this season, four of them fumble recoveries. The A&M defense allows fewer than 18 points per game (22nd in FBS) and yields just 188 passing yards (30th). The team has one of the nation's most experienced secondaries, with preseason All-American Antonio Johnson and fourth-year starter Demani Richardson manning the safety spots. The Aggies have beaten a top-five team in consecutive seasons, also knocking off No. 4 Florida in 2020. They are 4-1 ATS after a loss since 2020.
How to make Texas A&M vs. Alabama picks
The model has simulated the Alabama vs. Texas A&M matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is projecting Over on the point total, saying the teams will combine for 52 points. The model also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's CFB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins the Texas A&M vs. Alabama matchup on Saturday night? And which side of the spread is hitting almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Texas A&M spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model that has been crushing its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
