Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be a game-time decision when the Crimson Tide take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss. Tagovailoa returned from a surgical procedure on his right ankle to play in last week's showdown against LSU, but he was clearly not 100 percent in the 46-41 loss. If he cannot play, Mac Jones will start. The Crimson Tide (8-1, 5-1 in SEC), who are No. 5 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, need a win to keep their national title hopes alive. Alabama is 4-1 against the spread in its last five road games against a team with a losing home record. Meanwhile the Bulldogs (4-5, 2-4) have lost four of their last five games. Kickoff is noon ET. The Crimson Tide are 18.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 60. Before making any Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, see the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen huge returns. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters Week 12 of the 2019 season on a strong run, going 109-75 on all its top-rated college football picks this season. Anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has dialed in on Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also has a strong against the spread pick that cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. Visit SportsLine now to see the pick.
The model has considered that Alabama has dominated unranked opponents under coach Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide have won 89 consecutive games against unranked teams, the longest streak in FBS history. They have not lost to such a team since the 2007 season, Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's average margin of victory during the streak is 31.8 points.
It has also factored in that the Crimson Tide have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank third in the country in scoring offense (47.8 points a game) and eighth in total offense (510.4 yards per game). Even without Tagovailoa against Arkansas, Alabama rolled up 48 points and 459 yards in a blowout win.
But just because the Crimson Tide have the edge on paper does not guarantee they will cover the Alabama vs. Mississippi State spread on Saturday.
Prior to Mississippi State's bye week, the Bulldogs had a record-setting performance in their win over Arkansas. They set school records for total yards (640) and rushing yards (460) in an SEC game. In addition, quarterback Tommy Stevens passed for 172 yards and two touchdowns and had chunk plays of 27, 33 and 42 yards.
Mississippi State also has one of the most productive running backs in the country, Kylin Hill. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound junior leads the SEC and ranks 11th in the country in rushing yards per game at 114.1. He is coming off a career-high 234 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Razorbacks and was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Week.
So who wins Mississippi State vs. Alabama? And which side of the spread can you bank on in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Alabama spread to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,000 on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
