Things will never be the same.
Those six words might as well define the 2024 season. Take a look around. Earthquakes haven't altered landscapes this much. Nick Saban is gone. The College Football Playoff field has tripled. It only takes $20 million to be competitive in these heady days of NIL.
College football has never been this close to being professionalized. "Success" now has a different definition. Look at the fact that if you're not one of the 34 schools in the SEC and Big Ten, you start from behind.
Those conferences have traditionally dominated the game, but that dominance has been formalized with CFP access and revenue. The Big Ten now goes coast-to-coast. The SEC is rebounding from its "slump" after missing the CFP National Championship for the first time in 10 years.
Daily state-sponsored gambling is not only a reality, it's a concern. The Alabama baseball coach was fired for his role in a betting scandal. Now more than ever, football coaches will be held accountable (by those bettors) for not covering the point spread. The NCAA last year called local police to protect a College World Series team from a threat posed by a gambler.
None of it will take the charm out of the game, however. The expanded CFP means every coach in the country can legitimately sell a shot at a national championship -- or at least playing for one.
Florida State has a chip on its shoulder the size of the panhandle after its CFP snub last season following an undefeated regular season and ACC title win.
Same for the nation's leading rusher, Ollie Gordon II. Oklahoma State's star running back led the country in rushing and wasn't invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. (Yeah, Oklahoma has a panhandle too.)
These two things can be true: Saban is not only gone, but he's probably more visible than ever in his new analyst job.
Speaking of visible, so is No. 1 Georgia. Just visible in the wrong way (we'll get to that below).
What's great about 2024 is everybody is technically allowed into the country club. Sure, some are carrying bags, some are buying rounds on the 19th hole, some are hitting 300-yard drives, some are winning the tournament.
But this new era of the CFP will compel us to watch every single snap.
Here are 24 things to watch for ahead of the 2024 college football season.
College football's 24 for 2024
1. New era for College Football Playoff: The CFP ballooning to 12 teams seemingly cures all ills. There was more money, more access. The stakeholders are banking on more interest. The CFP had to evolve if it wanted to cash in on its true potential. While the race will center around the Big Ten and SEC -- the conferences could combine for eight of the 12 berths in any given year -- the expanded playoff will force us to watch the sport more closely. On Nov. 1, there will be 20, maybe 25, teams still in CFP contention. Programs like Kansas State, Ole Miss and Arizona could be planning to host first-round playoff games. There will be more chances for career-altering injuries, too. The true contenders will have to prepare their rosters to play up to 17 games. Then, consider the possibility of opt outs. The definition of achievement will differ from school to school. Some will hang a participation banner in the indoor facility. Some will put their coach on the hot seat for not winning four postseason games in a row. Either way, it is going to be great theater.
2. Realignment: Seventeen schools changed affiliations in the biggest such upheaval in the game's history. The Pac-12 is no longer with us in its traditional form, leaving nine FBS conferences with an average of 14.5 schools each. All of it was presaged three years ago when Texas and Oklahoma decided on moving to the SEC. In the end, the game got better because there will be more big-time matchups. Contests that used to be tasty nonconference games are now do-or-die conference showdowns. Conferences have consolidated for an obvious reason: They don't want to be left behind when the inevitable split between the Haves and Have Nots occurs. Right now, there is safety in numbers.
3. Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC: The next biggest offseason question behind "Where is Taylor Swift playing next?" is the viability of the Longhorns and Sooners in the SEC. Boiling it down: Who is better prepared for the SEC? For the moment, it's Texas coming off a Big 12 title. But this is not a one-year discussion; it's a forever decision and both schools are all in. Witness Texas' on-campus SEC transition party this summer that drew 50,000 fans. The Sooners and 'Horns go into the country's best conference as perhaps the fourth- or fifth-best programs. OU may have gotten used to running the Big 12 on the field. Texas was expert at running it off the field. Now, though, the big boy pants must be worn. No excuses.
4. Georgia goes for history: One three-point loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game separates Kirby Smart from having a chance to win four national championships in a row. Still, it's almost been overshadowed that Smart and Georgia continue rule the college football world. They have the best of everything -- coach, recruiting, facilities. That begs the question why Smart can't get past the off-field traffic issues? Since a former player and staffer died in a January 2023 crash, there have been at least 25 arrests or citations for reckless driving or racing by players. Smart made news during SEC Media Days by revealing a Georgia collective has fined players a "substantial" amount for driving offenses since last year. In a unique way, that might be the best way to address this behavior in these NIL times: hit 'em in the wallet.
5. Big(gest) shoes to fill: Kalen DeBoer wanted to be the guy to follow the guy at Alabama. In this case, it meant the Washington coach, who hails from South Dakota, replacing the best coach of all time. DeBoer fully embraces the implications of taking over for Saban. He is confident in his abilities. The players have bought in. DeBoer has already positioned 'Bama in the top two in the 247Sports recruiting rankings for the 2025 class. He has opened up the program to media and fans. The vibe is definitely positive. Perhaps Saban got out at the right time. What happens when 'Bama declines just a bit, goes 9-3 and gets bounced in the first round of the playoff? TBD.
6. Michigan goes for Moore: Sherrone Moore also replaced a legend. But even though Jim Harbaugh has moved on to the NFL, Coach Quirk is a gift that keeps on giving. Moore, Harbaugh's hand-picked choice to replace him, faces possible sanctions for his role in the sign-stealing scandal. Harbaugh was nailed Wednesday with a four-year show cause for his non-cooperation in the NCAA's probe into improper workouts during the COVID-19 dead period. Moore was already suspended for one game last season. Add all this into the central question: Can Michigan's former offensive coordinator be a head coach at a blueblood? Moore has had loads of experience in his seventh year with the program. Last year, he went 4-0 as acting coach while Harbaugh was suspended. The Wolverines definitely won't go 15-0 again, but given the circumstances, does Moore get a honeymoon year?
7. All or nothing at Ohio State: Cornerback Denzel Burke put it on the table during the offseason: "Natty or bust." The Buckeyes have gone all in trying to overcome the Michigan nemesis -- best transfer portal class, $20 million in NIL, new assistants. Hey, and if they happen to make a run in the playoff, that would be good, too. The priorities are clearly in place at Ohio State.
8. West Boast: The Pac-12 scattered to the realignment winds. Oregon is a budding powerhouse. UCLA and Washington have new coaches. The best of the rest are in the Big 12. No matter what, USC remains the most visible relocated West Coast program. It's been 15 years since Pete Carroll left. The school gave Lincoln Riley nine figures over 10 years, but that investment has yet to pay off. Riley begins 2024 coaching in his third league in four years. He's already dropping hints that the Trojans may need to soften the schedule. Before the team gets better, USC has to compete physically along both lines. Too often during Riley's tenure, those players have been pushed around. Riley must compete in the Big Ten and the CFP -- quickly.
9. ACC uncertainty: The nation's second-largest conference (17 teams) has Notre Dame as a partner, a billionaire sugar daddy and, oh yeah, Florida State. FSU continues its fight to get out of the league despite no guaranteed landing spot. As of this moment, the Big Ten and SEC aren't interested. The Big 12 would take the Seminoles in a second, but there might be riots in the streets of Tallahassee, Florida. We may know the direction of FSU and ACC by this time next year. For now, the football is going to be pretty good.
Thinking man's pick for 2024 champion: SMU.
10. Welcome, helmet communications: Look what Connor Stalions has done. While it's not a direct correlation, Stalions' alleged sign stealing did have some influence on the college game implementing helmet communications. Beginning this season, a player on each side of the ball will wear a helmet device that allows him to communicate with a coach before plays. The device will be shut off with 15 seconds left on the play clock. It's the same set up as the NFL, except in the college game, it won't eliminate sign stealing. Because of no-huddle offenses, teams will still be checking with the sideline where signs can be stolen. That's where the great art of sign stealing will no doubt continue.
11. Oregon State, Washington State drift out alone: The programs were cut loose like lifeboats on an open ocean when the Pac-12 dissolved. For now, the Beavers and Cougars are competing as independents while playing a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West. At stake is the programs' viability as power conference entities, which they aren't right now. The schools are sitting on a stash of about $260 million leftover from the Pac-12, but that's a finite number. Even if the schools are able to cobble together some kind of hybrid league with the best of the rest MWC and American, their days are power conference programs are likely over.
12. Heisman Watch:
- Dillion Gabriel, QB, Oregon: The Ducks will win at least 10 games -- an unwritten Heisman qualifier -- and challenge for the Big Ten title in their first season. Gabriel has an outside chance of becoming the FBS career passing leader.
- Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma State: 2,000 yards for probably the best overall team in the Big 12 is a possibility.
- Carson Beck, QB, Georgia: Waited his turn and almost quietly led the SEC in completion percentage and passing yards. If Georgia gets to the No. 1 spot in the CFP field, write Beck in with ink.
- Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss: Twenty-plus starters back for the Rebels. More will be on Dart's shoulders with star running back Quinshon Judkins going to Ohio State.
- Jalon Daniels, QB, Kansas: Kansas won nine games last year largely without him. With a healthy Daniels, look for the Jayhawks to lead the Big 12 in scoring ... and excitement.
13. Young guns: Seems like an unusually large under-40 coaching crowd is making an impression, particularly in the Big Ten where almost a quarter of the league's coaches have yet to reach their 40th birthday. These are the best in that age group.
- David Braun, 38, Northwestern: 2023 Big Ten coach of the year after being abruptly thrust into the job last summer.
- Kenny Dillingham, 34, Arizona State: The most talkative coach in ball. Must back it up after a 3-9 debut.
- Marcus Freeman, 38, Notre Dame: One of only two coaches to win at least nine in his first two seasons as Notre Dame coach.
- Alex Golesh, 39, South Florida: Tennessee's former offensive coordinator might have the Bulls positioned for the next round of realignment.
- Dan Lanning, 38, Oregon: Top-five coach nationally?
- Sean Lewis, 38, San Diego State: Raw deal at Colorado. Should do great things in Mission Valley.
- Sherrone Moore, 38, Michigan: Can the "rookie" head coach make it four in a row over Ohio State?
- Eric Morris, 37, North Texas: Promising 5-7 start for the Mike Leach disciple.
- Ryan Walters, 38, Purdue: Defensive wizard who must get better after a 4-8 debut.
14. First to go from the hot seat -- Sam Pittman, Arkansas: We know it, and he knows it. It's sort of win or else for the jovial Pittman, who is 6-11 in his last 17 games. "If you're going to get patted on the back, you're going to get punched in gut," Pittman surmised.
15. The Florida dilemma (second to go from hot seat?): The Gators have the toughest schedule in the country, and it isn't even close. Florida is playing eight opponents ranked in the top 20 of the preseason Coaches Poll. That might be the toughest schedule ever. Talk about high risk, high reward. If coach Billy Napier makes it out of that gauntlet with a bowl berth, he might get a contract extension. If he doesn't, well, see above.
16. Ferentz in winter: The second-oldest FBS coach (69) didn't get this far just punting and playing defense. Wait, actually, Kirk Ferentz did exactly that. Even with the worst offense since the Washington Generals, Iowa still won 10 games last season. With a healthy quarterback (Cade McNamara), a new offensive coordinator coordinator (Tim Lester) and a can't-be-that-bad-again attitude, the Hawkeyes could average 20 points this season. Iowa hasn't done that since 2021 and has scored as many as 20 in a Big Ten game only seven times in the last two years. If Ferentz's O is merely average this season, he'll get three more contract extensions before the bowl game.
17. Beloved video game has returned: You don't have to be told how cool it all is that "EA Sports College Football 25" has finally arrived. Players not only got $600 each from EA Sports for participating, but they made their individual rating a media days talking point. Now, they have to live up to their AI promise on the field. Look for these new features:
- The real person inside Alabama mascot Big Al? Miss Terry.
- In the advanced version, you can hear Chip Kelly calling plays inside YOUR helmet.
- Jim Harbaugh's "we-fense."
- Lane Kiffin actually gets a starting QB to transfer before kickoff with an NIL inducement.
- NIL mode: Game costs $70, agents get a 3% cut -- just like they do for player marketing contracts!
18. Coach Prime's second act: Colorado's boastful leader is more than a coach. He is a force of nature literally trailed by a posse and a band of content creators wherever he goes. In Year 2, the face of the new Big 12 now must turn CU around with his coaching chops. It was a nice September last season, but the Buffaloes finished 1-7 and were pushed around in the process. Given two years in the portal, Deion Sanders needs to prove he can coach at this level. Next question: What happens after sons Shedeur and Shilo depart following the season?
19. Bobby Petrino returns: Half of Hogs Nation already have Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino penciled in as the new coach. Sure, Pittman is on the hot seat, but even if he hangs on, Petrino's return to the scene of the, ahem, misconduct is must-see TV. The last time Petrino was in Fayetteville, Arkansas, he was wearing a neck brace and being fired for lying about his relationship with a staffer. All has been forgiven, at least at Arkansas, and Petrino is poised for a comeback for the ages at age 63.
20. Group of Five golden ticket winner: Don't forget the top-five ranked conference champions get an automatic berth in the CFP field -- and that includes the top-ranked Group of Five champ. From this view, Boise State looks like the frontrunner this year. With a new quarterback (USC transfer Malachi Nelson) and a new coach (Spencer Danielson), the Broncos are poised to win the Mountain West and earn a playoff bid. Yes, we're projecting the Mountain West is going to be the strongest Group of Five conference going forward. Now, get ready for a first-round playoff game during the third week of December at Penn State.
21. Wide open Big 12: Utah is favored, but don't bet a round of drinks at a Park City Ski Lodge on it. With the addition of the Four Corners schools, the league is looking for an identity. How about that "I don't know" emoji? One team is going to win the 16-team league and get to the playoff. More than likely, that team will do something it never has accomplished: play for a championship. Only two teams in the Big 12 -- BYU and Colorado -- have ever won national championships. That's the fewest among the Power Four.
22. Notable coordinator moves:
- Chip Kelly -- UCLA head coach to Ohio State offensive coordinator: Kelly might have more security in Columbus, Ohio, than he did in Los Angeles.
- Blake Baker -- Missouri defensive coordinator to LSU defensive coordinator: No collectives needed, Brian Kelly flat out bought the Tigers' talented coordinator out from underneath Mizzou. And it was completely legal.
- Travaris Robinson -- Alabama CB coach to Georgia co-defensive coordinator: T-Rob is one of the most talented defensive coaches in the game. Count him as another casualty of Saban's retirement. If he had stayed at 'Bama, freshman All-American Caleb Downs might still be with the Tide.
- Andy Kotelnicki -- Kansas offensive coordinator to Penn State offensive coordinator: The brains behind Kansas' offensive ascension was swept up by Penn State. Lance Leipold feared this day. Jeff Grimes will try to keep the Jayhawks offensively elite after coming over from Baylor.
- Collin Klein -- Kansas State offensive coordinator to Texas A&M offensive coordinator: Something tells me Klein, a former Wildcats star quarterback, would have been on a faster head coaching track at K-State. But when the A&M ATM calls, you have to listen.
- D'Anton Lynn -- UCLA defensive coordinator to USC defensive coordinator: Gangster move by Riley nabbing Lynn from the crosstown rival. Under Lynn, the Bruins improved from 87th to 10th in total defense
23. Names you should know in 2024: (These players must produce in some form this season.)
- Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee: The $8 Million (NIL) Man must now actually produce in his first year as the Volunteers starter.
- Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: The No. 1 wideout in the Class of 2024 is expected to produce right away. He's got plenty of competition in the Ohio State receiver room.
- D.J. Uiagalelei, QB, Florida State: Remember him? At his third school -- Clemson's biggest ACC rival -- we're still waiting for an answer. Who is exactly is this guy as a player?
- Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska: His uncle is the offensive line coach. His dad is a Huskers legend. Raiola himself turned down Georgia to come to a program that hasn't bowled since 2016. He'll be the Day 1 starter as a freshman.
- Marquez Cooper, RB, San Diego State: Leading active rusher (3,856 yards at Ball State) now at San Diego State.
- Miller Moss, QB, USC: Six touchdowns in the bowl game wasn't bad while stepping in for Caleb Williams.
- Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State: One of the most versatile players in ball, almost 2,000 total hards and 19 touchdowns last season. 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year.
- Kyron Drones, QB, Virginia Tech: Possible ACC breakout player of the year, if not the country. The offense took off after the Baylor transfer unleashed his dual-threat skills.
24. Win totals picks you can take to the bank:
- Alabama over 9.5: The Crimson Tide might take it to the wire, but DeBoer has transitioned nicely so far.
- Boise State over 9: The Broncos will be favored in at least 11 games this season.
- Colorado under 5.5: The season starts against North Dakota State, Nebraska and Colorado State. The Buffs could emerge from that stretch 0-3.
- Florida State over 9.5: The 'Noles will compete for a second straight ACC title.
- Liberty over 10.5: A lock for the Conference USA title. A playoff possibility if the Flames can go 13-0.
- LSU under 9: In Year 1 A.D. (After Daniels), the Tigers will slump. They get Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma at home. They have to win all three.
- Oklahoma under 7.5: Have you seen the schedule?
- Oregon over 10.5: This projection may hinge on the Oct. 12 game against Ohio State.
- Wyoming under 6.5: Craig Bohl leaves after a decade of steadiness. There are three Power Four opponents in the nonconference slate.
