CBS Sports' annual Hot Seat Rankings are here, and it's time ask: Are they a curse or a mere curiosity? When two-thirds of the coaches named eventually lose their jobs, perhaps it's a bit of both.
Since the end of the 2016 season, 35 names have appeared on our preseason Hot Seat Rankings rated as either 4s (start improving now) or 5s (win or be fired). Of those, 23 have been fired or resigned under pressure (65.7%). In the Power Five alone, the hit rate is 66.6% (14 of 21). Take that to Las Vegas, and they'll accuse you of counting cards.
That list of 35 includes Kevin Sumlin, who was fired twice in that five-year period from both Texas A&M and Arizona. Randy Edsall appeared four straight years (2018-21) before leaving UConn by mutual decision in the first week of September 2021, days after saying he would retire at the end of the season. Clay Helton appeared three straight years from 2019-21 before becoming the first coach fired last season.
Ed Orgeron appeared in 2018, won a national championship in 2019, reappeared in 2021 and was fired last October. That was less than two seasons after winning it all. Manny Diaz's hot seat cooled off considerably from 2020 to 2021, yet the candidacy of Mario Cristobal proved too much to handle for his uneven tenure at Miami.
So, take heed. If you need an indicator of the tenuousness of this profession, take this: The 30 coaching changes entering the 2022 college football season are the most in at least 15 years -- 2007 when Nick Saban arrived at Alabama.
That suggests a certain amount of stability for this season. There have been 72 FBS coaching changes in the last three years. Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, South Florida, Washington and Washington State have changed coaches twice.
So, what openings might there be entering 2023? Plenty, potentially.
Last year, five of the nine coaches on this short list were fired, while two remain on the hot seat (Nebraska's Scott Frost, Arizona State's Herm Edwards), one cooled his seat down (UTEP's Dana Dimel) and one found his way completely off it (Michigan's Jim Harbaugh).
Below is our ratings key showing how the 131 FBS coaches sort out. There are eight on the proverbial Hot Seat entering the season with another 16 starting to feel the heat.
| Rating | What it means | Coaches |
|---|---|---|
5 | Win or be fired | 2 |
4 | Start improving now | 6 |
3 | Pressure is mounting | 16 |
2 | All good ... for now | 28 |
1 | Safe and secure | 55 |
0 | Untouchable | 24 |
That leads us to the annual Hot Seat Rankings and the eight Power Five coaches that need to figure out a way to cool things down before 2022 comes to a close. Check out our complete set of 2022 Hot Seat Rankings for ratings of all 131 FBS coaches entering the season.
2022 Hot Seat: Now or never
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Scott Frost | 5 | All that is lacking is a formal letter notifying Frost that he'd better win this season or be fired. There was an embarrassing NCAA investigation that resulted in minor penalties. He fired four assistant coaches and agreed to restructure his contract. Oh, and there's that 3-9 record last season, the worst of Frosty's four campaigns at his alma mater. The .341 winning percentage is the lowest for a Nebraska coach since Bill Jennings (1957-61). Frost is a good guy who was destined for greatness at his school ... until he wasn't. That makes this the No. 1 hot seat to monitor. 2021 rating: 5 |
 | Herm Edwards | 5 | It's safe to say the NFL model experiment by athletic director Ray Anderson was just that -- an experiment. Edwards is 25-18 as CEO-coach, not bad but not good when combined with a languishing NCAA investigation over prospects reportedly brought in during the COVID-19 dead period. President Michael Crow has backed Edwards, instead blaming departed assistants for the alleged wrongdoing. In the wake, several players transferred. This season has the look of Edwards' last. At 68, he isn't going to be around for whatever the realignment future holds. The school would have been wise to take a postseason ban to start the rebuild. 2021 rating: 4 |
 | Bryan Harsin | 4 | Harsin is a decent man and good coach, but he was the latest to go through the Auburn Churn that seems to impact every Tigers coach eventually. For a couple of weeks in February, it looked like Harsin had lost his job. In the end, it was JABA -- Just Auburn Being Auburn. Something tells me, none of it would have happened had Auburn been able to hold against Alabama. Both coordinators have been replaced, but RB Tank Bigsby is back. By now, Harsin has to know you're only as good as your next game at Auburn where job security is written in invisible ink. 2021 rating: 2 |
 | Dino Babers | 4 | Things are actually looking up for Cuse, which won at Virginia Tech before going 0-3 to end the season and miss a bowl game for the seventh time in eight seasons. Sean Tucker rushed for almost 1,500 yards and became an All-American. At one time, Babers was one of the nation's brightest spread offense minds. Now, only one of his six Syracuse teams have finished above eighth in ACC scoring. AD John Wildhack says Babers is not on the hot seat. That was before the ACC freaked out amid conference realignment. Winning just became more important for a league stuck in quicksand financially. 2021 rating: 3 |
 | Geoff Collins | 4 | Collins' plan was to make this Atlanta's team: the fun, unique midway point between Clemson and Alabama. Something went wrong. The Yellow Jackets are 9-25 in Collins' three seasons. He has beaten just seven Power Five teams during. There were three losses last year by 30+ points. Complicating matters was losing leading rusher/kickoff returner Jahmyr Gibbs to Alabama in the transfer portal. Entering Year 4, there is loads of work to do. 2021 rating: 2 |
 | Willie Taggart | 4 | An embarrassing and potentially career-defining trial has to put Taggart on the brink. He settled with one of his former Oregon players who sued the coach and his former strength coach after being hospitalized. Taggart admitted to his drills at Oregon being excessive but not punitive. Taggart, 45, hasn't held a job for more than two years since 2015, and he's seven games below .500 in his career. The 2021 season ended with a four-game losing streak, and the staff has been redone. On either side of his 7-5 season at Oregon are a 40-45 record at Western Kentucky and South Florida plus a 19-23 record at Florida State and FAU. 2021 rating: 2 |
 | Jake Spavital | 4 | Spavital made headlines last year when he went with an all-transfer portal approach in recruiting. It worked to a degree with the wins doubling from two to four, but the Bobcats haven't had a winning season since 2014. That indicates the administration has patience, but how long will it last? The Sun Belt got a whole lot better in 2022 when it expanded. 2021 rating: 3 |
 | Marcus Arroyo | 4 | It's probably not fair to judge Arroyo on a head-coaching career that started with COVID-19 in 2020. But 2-16 after two seasons stands out for all the wrong seasons. The Rebels have had two winning records this century and none in the last eight years. There is added pressure with the AD who hired Arroyo away from Oregon now settled in at Missouri. Plus, UNLV plays in one of the best venues in the country, the Raiders' still-new Allegiant Stadium. 2021 rating: 2 |
Check out the full set of 2022 Hot Seat Rankings for all 131 FBS coaches.
2022 Hot Seat: Getting warmer
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Mike Norvell | 3 | Norvell could -- perhaps should -- be fully on the hot seat after going 8-13 in his first two seasons. He just not there yet. Not with his work ethic and positive outlook. In fact, he has done an admirable job trying to restore a culture at FSU. A win over Miami helped during a 5-7 season. The administration isn't in any mood to make a change after having to get rid of Taggart after two seasons. Support staff has been added. Norvell went heavy into the transfer portal and put all his faith in QB Travis Jordan, 5-2 in his last seven starts. The offensive line -- horrid under Taggart -- has to get better. If things fall back after a few weeks, we can have another hot seat discussion during our midseason updates. 2021 rating: 1 |
 | Karl Dorrell | 3 | The one thing you can't be in college football is boring. And CU is booorrring. A surprise 4-2 debut season during COVID-19 was followed with Dorrell going 4-8 in Year 2. The offense was epically bad, finishing second-worst in total offense and in the bottom 10 in gains of at least 10, 20 and 30 yards. Dorrell was a surprise hire after the loss of Mel Tucker, joining the Buffaloes after being the Dolphins' wide receivers cocah. CU may not have the money or willingness to can Dorrell after three seasons, but times have changed. Whatever happens going forward, Colorado is going to play in an at least an altered conference with different expectations and perhaps less revenue. Even more reason why it can't be boring. 2021 rating: 1 |
 | Jeff Scott | 3 | Scott has beaten one FBS team in two seasons (3-18). He is 0-11 on the road. Clemson's former co-offensive coordinator needs to win now in a Group of Five powerhouse conference that has become unforgiving (the American). Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and UCF (at least) have better programs. Now, Scott faces of the jump of trying to go from 2-10 to bowl eligibility. He got a two-year extension in January to 2026. When CBS Sports contacted him, USF AD Mike Kelly was adamant Scott was safe for at least the next two seasons. Scott's transfer class was among the best in the country. A new indoor facility and (planned) on-campus stadium also helps. 2021 rating: 1 |
Check out the full set of 2022 Hot Seat Rankings for all 131 FBS coaches.
