In the spirit of the 2022-23 college basketball season getting underway, I contemplated indulging myself with a vanilla bold predictions story as a primer. But, you know what? That's too generic. It gives me enough wiggle room to say some crazy things, and if they don't come to fruition, well, then I can always use the shield of saying it was a bold predictions post ... so get off my lawn!
Nuh-uh. I'm not letting myself off the hook that easy. Step onto my lawn and apply the pressure.
So, bold predictions is the call here -- with a twist: Ten predictions that seem bold but which I actually believe. Some are bold, sure. In fact, most of these are going to seem bold. But I actually believe them. I stand by them. They aren't just hot takes I threw into the oven for 10 minutes and scorched. They are takes I have curated, nurtured and harbored throughout the offseason. They are takes for which I want you to hold me accountable. I stand by them. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow medium-well.
But, they won't be wrong. Because these bold predictions ... well, some may seem bold to the average person. And maybe they are a bit. But they're also guaranteed to be 100% right. I'm going to say them with my chest and with some conviction. I'm going to speak them into existence. These aren't debate-show level takes; they are evidence-based, nuanced opinions that will soon be proven factual. Feelings may be hurt, norms will be shattered and forecasting models will be a shambles in the process. But that's the price I'm willing to pay to give you the real, unfiltered goods on what will go down this college basketball season.
1. Timme over Tshiebwe for NPOY
History says repeating as National Player of the Year in college basketball is virtually unheard of. Hasn't happened in four decades. A lot has to go right during a season -- health, team success, battling whatever statistical regression to the mean that may well be coming -- so I'm taking Gonzaga big man Drew Timme over Kentucky big man Oscar Tshiebwe (the reigning player of the year) to win NPOY honors this season.
Timme will be the clear alpha on a Zags team that lost Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard, and the competition for production doesn't seem as strong this year as it was last year. Julian Strawther should be in line for a starring role, sophomores Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman may make big leaps and transfer Efton Reid should have his own role in the frontcourt. But Timme is the dude and will be the dude. Should be a lock for averaging 20 points and eight boards per night on a Zags team that can again be a No. 1 seed.
There's also -- last but maybe actually most importantly -- the matter of Tshiebwe's health. Tshiebwe underwent a knee procedure in the preseason that UK coach John Calipari has tried his darndest to downplay, but Calipari himself said he'd be stunned if he played in the season-opener; there's no firm timetable on when he will be back to full strength. Even if he's cleared to return in, say, two weeks, there's a real chance he winds up spending the first month or two trying to ease into his role as the Wildcats' do-everything big. With his stock trending down, I'll take Timme's guaranteed production over some injury uncertainty with Tshiebwe.
2. SEC finishes No. 1 in KenPom's ratings
The Big Ten and the Big 12 -- mostly the Big 12 but sometimes the Big Ten -- have taken turns dominating KenPom's metrics that rank each conference by adjusted efficiency margin. In fact, for the SEC it has been two decades since it was No. 1 in KenPom's conference ratings metrics. That was pre-realignment the first time. I think it upsets that trend and summits the rankings this season.
Kentucky (spoiler alert!) will I think be this year's champion behind a No. 1-seed caliber roster. Tennessee and Arkansas have the goods to be top-10 teams. Auburn, Alabama and Florida could be ranked all season and carry respect for the league's middle. The middle to bottom of the league carries some questions -- Texas A&M is probably a tourney-caliber team, I think, but new coaches at LSU, Mississippi State and Florida raise some uncertainty -- but overall this is a very healthy league top to bottom.
3. Baylor > Texas > Kansas in the Big 12
Kansas demands your respect, but it does not demand your obedience. Just because it has dominated the Big 12 and won the natty last season does not mean that we should just blindly tap them in as Big 12 frontrunners. That team lost a lot as stars David McCormack, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun have departed. My on-a-limb belief in the Big 12 this year is that Baylor will be the class of the conference, not Kansas, and Texas will be its next challenger followed by the Jayhawks. Chris Beard had a just-OK debut season in Austin, but he brings back Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen and added transfer Tyrese Hunter, among others, to make up a roster that could be one of the best in the country. All in on the Beard experience in Year 2.
4. Two Arkansas freshmen earn All-America honors
No. 1 overall recruit Nick Smith is going to be locked into a big role with preseason No. 10 Arkansas from Day 1, but he won't be the only rookie difference-maker on this Razorbacks roster. Birdies in Fayetteville are chirping LOUD about the potential of five-star freshman Anthony Black, too. Black drew comps to Cade Cunningham coming out of high school with the size, skill and lead-guard combo ability to really help round this roster out in a necessary way. Both will be studs, and both, I predict, wind up as All-Americans by season's end.
5. Patrick Ewing ousted after Georgetown implodes
How "bold" this one is might be up for debate. Georgetown lost its final 21 games to close last season and finished with its lowest season-long win total since the 1930s (6). It'll be hard to part ways with Patrick Ewing, a Hoyas legend who personifies Georgetown, but it will be necessary. He may earn more time if the Hoyas turn it around this season, but Georgetown is expected to be the worst or second-worst team (again) in the Big East this season. Writing is on the wall here. Even a laughably soft schedule for the Hoyas won't save Ewing's job. If they go 6-25 again, or worse, it won't even flicker as a surprise on the radar.
6. Jordan 'Jelly' Walker leads the country in scoring
UAB might be a tourney team for a second consecutive season, and if it is, it will be in large part because of coach Andy Kennedy's willingness to feature Jordan "Jelly" Walker. The senior microwave is a walking bucket who averaged a career-high 20.3 points per game last year in his first season with the Blazers after transferring in from Tulane. An uptick in role and production is in order, too, so it's not unreasonable to think he could drop 25 a game and go nuclear. It's Jelly season, and it's time everyone recognize Walker for what he is: one of the most fun stars in the entire sport.
7. Only one No. 1 seed makes the Final Four
At least two No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 times since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985, including four of the last six tournaments. But the 2023 NCAA Tournament will throw us multiple curveballs. The only No. 1 seed to survive and advance their way to the Final Four will be Kentucky, while fellow No. 1 seeds Baylor, North Carolina and Gonzaga drop out earlier than expected. (My Final Four picks, for posterity, are here.)
8. UConn earns highest tourney seed since last Calhoun title
Legally, I am obligated to inform you that I have officially gone full stan for Dan Hurley and UConn this season and I don't care who knows it. All-in. Will be a challenger to Creighton in the Big East and the clear No. 2 in the league ahead of Villanova. Is it bold? Based on how my colleagues see things, maybe. But do I believe it? Absolutely.
I'm willing to double down on my Huskies love by going as far as to say they will either tie or best their highest NCAA Tournament seed since their last Jim Calhoun championship (they were a 3 seed and won it in 2011). To quote the legend Nelson Knapke: Adama Sanogo? Dog. Andre Jackson Jr? Dog. Oh, and Dan Hurley? He's a dog, too.
This roster is stacked, this coaching staff is arguably the best in the Big East and its prospects for this season are way, way higher than anyone is willing to admit.
9. Kris Murray fully breaks out as a junior
In his second season with the Iowa program, Keegan Murray became one of the most productive players in college hoops and a lottery pick after showing signs as a freshman of potential stardom. Now his brother, Kris, is in line to take a similar trajectory to the top of the college hoops ladder. His 9.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season don't pop off the page, but he was very steady down the stretch and generated first-round buzz in the draft process before returning to school.
I hear you, I hear you: But Kyle, "fully breaks out" is just a cop-out cliche. Fair. My prediction: He averages 19.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game for Iowa, earns All-American honors and is clearly a top-10 player in the sport. Boom.
10. Keyonte George is best freshman
The aforementioned duo of Nick Smith and Anthony Black will be great. The Duke trio of Dereck Lively, Dariq Whitehead and Kyle Filipowski will all be huge factors. Combo guards Cason Wallace and Amari Bailey will be studs for Kentucky and UCLA, respectively. But no freshman will be better or more productive than Baylor rookie Keyonte George. He walks into a program that does a great job of featuring its guards and desperately needs someone to step up in the backcourt next to Adam Flagler. George is a firecracker scorer who can pop off any night and has top-five pick potential, but the way Baylor uses him this season as a scorer and creator will separate him as the clear alpha in a loaded freshman class.
