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USATSI

Coaches across college basketball need to take a step back, literally, and dial down the calisthenics.

For far too long many of them have paid little heed to the coaching box, a 28-foot-long area that runs parallel to, and extends past, the bench. It's commonplace to see coaches stride onto the floor as if it's their territory, even though it's not. On Saturday, we saw one of the more egregious violations when Shaka Smart did this.

I admit the whole thing looks hilarious, but at the same time, um, hello? At minimum, Smart should have been sanctioned with a warning.

"Clearly a coaching box warning," one official told CBS Sports. "By rule, coaches outside the box get one warning and it is recorded in the score book."

Smart's spectacle came close to technical foul territory, too. Instead, nothing was issued. And that's the problem. Refs seldom keep coaches in check in this realm, even when they literally cross the line. There's a case that Smart's positioning induced Creighton's Baylor Scheierman to halt himself from continuing to move toward the corner.    

Here's how the rule book reads. 

Class B Technical Foul (1 shot, unsportsmanlike conduct)

Rule 4, Section 15, Article 3b: A Class B technical foul is an infraction of the rules that neither involves contact with an opponent, nor causes contact with an opponent, and falls below the limit of an unsportsmanlike act.

Also:

Class B Technical Foul (1 shot, coach delay)
Rule 4, Section 10, Article 1b, 1: Bench personnel entering the playing court before player activity has been terminated, which prevents the ball from promptly being made live or prevents continuous action. Penalty: No warning for this action, Class B Technical Foul.

If this was a one-off incident, I wouldn't be leading the Court Report with it. Coaches — consciously or subconsciously — stepping onto the floor has become strangely part of game flow. I reached out to some college officiating sources to get more input about why college hoops has evolved to the point where coaches are on the floor all too frequently. Not all responded. Those who did asked not to be identified. 

"I love Shaka, and if I would've T'ed him up for this, he would've been like, 'You're right,'" one veteran official said. "Some others wouldn't have responded that way."

Smart is as active a coach as you'll find on the court, but he's far from the only line-stepper. Buzz Williams, Bruce Pearl, Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, Eric Musselman and many others have long skirted on their occasional borderline game interference. A year ago, Kermit Davis was helping Ole Miss play 6-on-5. This is hysterically flagrant.

Oh, I've got more. Last February, Northwestern's Chris Collins grabbed Purdue's Fletcher Loyer. Earlier that season, Southern's coach was practically the inspiration for Shaka's enthusiastic help defense. If you think this is a new trend, keep in mind: John Calipari has twice received technical fouls for coaching-box violations in the NCAA Tournament, one of them while at UMass in the '90s. He's still getting in trouble for it these days.

Next week will mark 10 years to the day that Tom Crean did this.

In 2014, the Wall Street Journal dedicated a story to coaches' bad hardwood habits, but it hardly reduced infractions. There have been "points of emphasis" in the ensuing years, but it's been a farce.

"Can't be on the floor," a veteran in the officiating space said. "Can't make a travesty of the game. Simple rule: 'Don't be an idiot.'" 

When called out, coaches will often fall back on the fib of telling refs they were caught up in the moment and didn't realize their positioning. As one source on the coaches' side told me: "Any coach who tells you they don't know where they are is full of s---. We are so obsessed with teaching position and with footwork."

It seems to be getting worse. 

"I would say the past two years, for sure, there has not been that much of a focus or emphasis on bench decorum, which includes not just the conduct of the coach but the location of the coach," another officiating source said. "It's a problem. Fans have fun with it, but it's a problem. The rule book, in the NCAA's defense, there are a multitude of ways for this to be addressed. If it's ignored, shame on the officials."

No one in a position of power has demanded accountability. It's on officials for not calling it and on the coordinators of officials in these leagues for not getting their refs in check. The more this happens, the more it will keep happening. At some point, it's going to cost a team in a huge moment and be an embarrassment. 

"It comes down to the courage of officials," one source said. "Coaches are going to look for every advantage, and if they're not penalized, it's just reinforced. From an official's perspective, it's just easier to do nothing."

How damning is that quote?   

At minimum, Smart's interference should have been a warning. Even a 1-shot Class B technical would not have been out of bounds — which is where the coach should have been to begin with.   

Mountain West trending toward big March showing

The Court Report won't be waiting until March — or even the second week of 2024 — to shine a bright light on the Mountain West. The league is making major strides (even without adding Oregon State and Washington State for the near future). Almost two years ago, the Mountain West got four NCAA bids after a six-year run of being a one- or two-bid league. That wound up meaning jack. 

The MW went 0-4 in the 2021 NCAAs, extending a terrible, decade-long display that saw the conference win just three Big Dance matchups over a 10-year span. The league lacked legitimacy as a multi-bid conference.

Last year, that began to change. The MW again got four bids, but San Diego State saved the league's bacon (after Boise State, Utah State and Nevada went winless again) when the Aztecs made the national championship game. That SDSU run has energized the conference to a tremendous first eight weeks of the 2023-24 campaign. 

The Mountain West is pacing to one of its three best seasons in its 25-year history. Because of its strength at the top, the MW is more likely than not to have more NCAA bids this year than the Pac-12 and the ACC. 

On Tuesday night, 13th-ranked Colorado State (13-1) beat New Mexico (12-2) in the league's first high-profile tilt of 2024. This was just days removed from SDSU winning at Gonzaga, pulling off only the 17th victory by an opponent in McCarthey Athletic Center history. It was the first time in 173 games Gonzaga lost by double digits at The Kennel.

At the top of the Mountain West sit SDSU, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State. They all carry 11 or more wins and are a combined 62-7. All five are top-40 in the NET and top-45 at KenPom. That's better strength at the top than the ACC, Big East and Pac-12. Critically, none of those teams have taken a bad loss. Its collective nonconference win percentage is .730, fourth-best nationally. And at 9-4, Boise State is still a worthy foe and a team capable of entering the at-large conversation. Those six teams are 21-11 in the top two quadrants and none have lost a Q3 or Q4 game. 

What's more, the Mountain West is the only league to have every team above .500 in non-con competition. This is reducing the number of Quad 3/4 games the league slate will provide, which is a tide to lift the Mountain West's boats. 

Folks, this is going to be a four-bid league, minimum. The most likely scenario, according to BartTorvik.com, is five bids (a 46.5% possibility, with a better chance at six bids than three). If five happens, it would match 2013 for the most in one year in MW history. This March, it won't just be SDSU getting wins in the big bracket. The league is primed for a major moment.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL: NOV 06 Cal State Fullerton at San Diego State
The Mountain West has been uplifted by studs like SDSU's Jaedon LeDee. Tony Ding/USATSI

Updated power-conference predictions

Beyond the Mountain West, with intra-league play fully upon us, let's see what's changed in the Big Six since my October forecast ...

ACC

Preseason pick: Duke | Today's pick: Duke
I was tempted to pick the 11-1 Clemson Tigers (ranked 16th this week), but too much data is in favor of Duke to not stick with the Blue Devils for now. They get lowly Louisville and Notre Dame twice. Clemson and Wake look like NCAA Tournament teams, but Duke only has to face each once. It only has to deal with Virginia once, and that game will be at home. Plus, Duke still narrowly projects as the best team in the ACC. This is the toughest choice of the six leagues, IMO. 

Big East

Preseason pick: Marquette | Today's pick: Marquette
I am not allowing myself the out of picking a split champion, though it's easy to envision UConn sharing the regular-season crown with MU. I will stay with Marquette, my preseason No. 2 team, especially if you tell me Shaka's gonna continue to crouch and get some occasional help defense in. Donovan Clingan's health at UConn, Creighton being the least effective turnover team in the country and Villanova's variance make Marquette the safest pick.

Big 12

Preseason pick: Kansas | Today's pick: Kansas
Still the sensible pick, but it's the best league by far, so Kansas is no automatic champ this season. Undefeated Houston has been rated No. 1 in predictive metrics for more than a month. BYU is top-five and Baylor has the roster to challenge for the title. The Big 12 is must-see on a nightly basis. Because it's on an 18-game schedule, it's the last power conference to begin league play. That gets going Saturday.

Big Ten

Preseason pick: Purdue | Today's pick: Purdue
The easiest of the Big Six to pick. The Boilermakers are more likely to win the league by three games than by one. Zach Edey's NPOY lead is casual and comfortable. Purdue just wrapped up its third consecutive undefeated nonconference slate, just the third time in the past 50 years a team went three straight seasons without losing a regular-season non-con affair (Syracuse, 2010-12; Duke 1992-94).

Pac-12

Preseason pick: Arizona | Today's pick: Arizona
Colorado is a strong No. 2 here. And, after Arizona's Sunday loss at Stanford (6-6), the Buffaloes should be viewed as a viable contender to win the conference in its final season of existence as we know it. Will stick with the Wildcats to avoid any other baffling losses. USC and UCLA were in the 2- and 3-hole for me back in October. They're both 6-7 and pacing to miss the NCAAs in the same year for the fourth time since 2010.

SEC

Preseason pick: Texas A&M | Today's pick: Tennessee
I believed in A&M because of its 25-win season and returning almost every contributing piece. I'll shift off the Aggies now, though I'll note A&M started 6-5 last season before going 19-5 the rest of the way. The Vols were my No. 2 choice in October. Due to their tenacious defense, quality foul shooting and across-the-board veteran representation, give me Rick Barnes to win his second regular-season SEC championship.

@ me

The Court Report's weekly mailbag! Find me on X/Twitter or Bluesky and drop a Q anytime.

📬 Robert via Bluesky: Which football-driven realignment situation will be hurt most starting next year? Which will be helped most?

Let's put a 10-year time frame on this and guess on situations as of January 2034. The starting point/perch is key. Cal may well continue to be bad in the ACC, but it's already bad. I think UCLA is in danger of losing its place and being the biggest loser that fals furthest. Mick Cronin's public criticisms of the school's NIL situation don't inspire confidence moving forward. If I can loop in this season's adjustments, I maintain Houston will be the biggest beneficiary. It's a perfect fit for the Big 12 in many ways and should be a relevant program even after Kelvin Sampson retires later this decade.

Gary Parrish retired his weekly Poll Attacks column a few years ago, but it could be revived on a whim almost any week of the season because of stupidity like this. Some AP Top 25 voters take their responsibility seriously. Others have rhythmic oversights that devalue the weekly rankings. Additionally, Gonzaga remains ranked (24th), while San Diego State is on the outside looking in after winning at GU. There is actually no case whatsoever to rank Gonzaga ahead of San Diego State as of the first week of 2024. Embarrassing for the voting collective. 

📬 Jay via Bluesky: Curious on your thoughts about the reason for so many "bad" losses so far across the country, regardless of high, mid, or low major. I've seen a lot of results that you wouldn't think happen a few years ago (i.e McNeese beating Michigan, Furman losing to D-II Anderson).

I don't have a Wonka-like machine to scrape the specific data necessary to confirm this suspicion. To me, this doesn't feel like an outlier year when it comes to egregious upsets. I do think the top 15-20 teams this season are a tick down from the average in the past five years, however. 

📬 Marcus via Bluesky: Is there any weird correlation between a team's record on Jan. 1 and where they end up in the tournament?

There is not. The NCAA Tournament is too random of a results generator to draw any significant relationships with a team's Jan. 1 record, other than being .500 or worse this far into a season means essentially zero chance of winning it all. Beyond that, in postseason league play, there is no correlation between winning or losing in your conference tournament with ONE exception: There has never been an NCAA champion that lost its first conference tournament game.

📬 Ryan via Bluesky: You can travel back in time to tell 2014 Matt one thing about the state of college basketball in 2024. What is it?

On Jan. 3, 2014, I was in my fourth season covering college basketball for CBS. Ten years ago today, I was writing things like, "Right now you can make the argument Syracuse is the best team in the country" and "the Leadership Council proposed all college basketball players sit a year, no matter what, following a transfer." 

May as well have been the Jurassic Era. 

This is a good question with so many possible answers. I'm trying to think about the thing that would've excited 2014 Me the most about what was to come. If I simply told Younger Me," You don't think a 16 is going to beat a 1 anytime soon, but not only will it happen in the next decade, you'll see it twice. And one of those defeats will lead to one of the greatest redemption stories in the sport's history." That would've given me a real jolt, because I didn't think we'd see a 16-over-1 for decades. It certainly would pique my interest more than all of the haranguing fallout from the 2017 FBI scandal that took six years to resolve. 

Norlander's news + nuggets

• If you tried to stay offline for most of the past week, well, I don't begrudge you. It's good for the mind to unplug now and then. That said, here's one final push on my look back at 2023 in college basketball. 
• The Christmas break provided a fun Big East subplot. UConn won at home over St. John's on Dec. 23. A few days later, Rick Pitino promised he'll schedule SJU's home tilt vs. UConn in 2024-25 at Carnesecca Arena, not Madison Square Garden. Dan Hurley understands — and said St. John's is "punching up" because it's obviously not at UConn's level. He didn't say it to be insulting, he was just stating facts after being asked a question. Oh, by the way: UConn vs. St. John's in the Garden this season will go down Feb. 3.
• Dayton (10-2) plays at Davidson tonight at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, which means DaRon Holmes II time. The best player in the A-10 is averaging 17.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.3 blocks. The only player with at least 25 blocks, 25 dunks and 25 assists, according to UD. He doesn't shoot a lot of 3s, but he's making 43.5% of them. As multi-faceted a big man as the sport can claim.
• Alabama may well be a featured team in a Court Report later this month; top-five in many a metric despite an 8-5 record. How does that happen? One major reason is obviously the schedule. The Crimson Tide's opponents have a collective record of 121-53. That .695 win percentage for its opponents is the highest in D-I. 
• Gonzaga is 28th at KenPom. This past week marked the first time it was 20th or worse in six-plus years. It hasn't been 30th or worse since March 2016. GU fans reading this truly understand how good it's been for more than half a decade. A step back was inevitable.
• Most missed Stanford's 3-point barrage Sunday (16 for 25) that led to an eye-popping 100-82 win over Arizona. No school was happier to see Arizona move on from Sean Miller than Stanford. Miller went 19-1 vs. the Cardinal while at U of A. Now? Jerod Haase is now 4-2 against the Wildcats. Amazingly, Stanford and Arizona are the only two schools to log a victory over an AP top-five opponent three years running.
• This past weekend was the coming-out party for Oregon freshman Jackson Shelstad. The CBS Sports Freshman of the Week had a combined 41 points on 14-of-25 shooting in the Ducks' wins over USC and UCLA. Shelstad has grown into a borderline top-10 frosh and could be the decider in whether Oregon has an NCAA bid in its 2024 future. 
• Portland State has developed a flair for the dramatic. The school recently published this montage of its five — yes, five — buzzer beaters in 2023. (It has me wondering: What school has gone the longest since its last buzzer beater?) PSU's game-deciding buckets came in a variety of styles and distances, three of them this season. Let's carry this mojo into 2024, people.