TCU and Kansas State match up on Wednesday evening in Kansas City. The battle represents the first game of the 2021 Big 12 Tournament, with plenty on the line. Top-seeded Baylor awaits the winner in the next round. TCU and Kansas State split a pair of regular season meetings, with the Wildcats winning most recently on Feb. 20 in Manhattan.
Tip-off is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Kansas City. William Hill Sportsbook lists TCU as a 3.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 126.5 in the latest TCU vs. Kansas State odds. Before you make any Kansas State vs. TCU picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned over $400 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on TCU vs. Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Kansas State vs. TCU:
- TCU vs. Kansas State spread: TCU -3.5
- TCU vs. Kansas State over-under: 126.5 points
- TCU vs. Kansas State money line: TCU -170, Kansas State +145
- TCU: The Horned Frogs are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
- KSU: The Wildcats are 5-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why TCU can cover
The Horned Frogs are led by one of the Big 12's best scorers in junior guard RJ Nembhard. Nembhard is averaging 15.9 points per game, ranking in the top five of the conference, and he keys an offense that is capable of strong efficiency in this matchup. TCU's offense can also be aided by Kansas State's struggles, as the Wildcats finished dead-last in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed (53.6 percent) this season. Kansas State also struggled to create havoc, landing in last place in the Big 12 in both block rate (3.5 percent) and steal rate (7.2 percent), which could take pressure off TCU's offense.
On the other end, Kansas State was the worst offensive team in conference play, posting an adjusted offensive efficiency of just 88.4, and the Wildcats were at the bottom of the Big 12 in shooting efficiency and turnover rate.
Why Kansas State can cover
Kansas State is playing its best basketball of the season, with TCU stumbling down the stretch. On top of that, the Wildcats have a few strengths offensively, posting a 29.8 percent offensive rebound rate and leading the Big 12 in assisting on 55.9 percent of their field goals in conference games. TCU allows opponents to shoot 50.8 percent on two-point attempts this season, and there are avenues to the rim against the Horned Frogs.
Kansas State is above-average in creating turnovers, forcing a giveaway on 19.0 percent of defensive possessions, and TCU has a poor turnover rate on both ends of the floor. The Wildcats are also a solid defensive rebounding team, ranking second in the conference during Big 12 play, and Kansas State could benefit from TCU's struggles at the free throw line, with the Horned Frogs making only 67.6 percent at the charity stripe this season.
How to make Kansas State vs. TCU picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 132 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins TCU vs. Kansas State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
