The opening weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and if you love upsets and Cinderella stories, you didn't have the best time. Sure, you saw Yale knock off analytical darling and national title dark horse Auburn, and you'll always remember Jack Gohlke flame-throwing Kentucky into oblivion. But, for the most part, the first four days were chalk.
That's not to say there weren't exciting games. There were a few, actually. Still, the team that was expected to win won most of first- and second-round games.
| Team | Record | ATS | Avg. MOV |
|---|---|---|---|
Favorite by Seed | 35-13 | 28-20 | 10.31 |
The good news is we're left with what could be an incredible run from here to the national championship game in Glendale, Arizona. The benefit of all the best teams emerging from the first weekend is that all the best teams in college basketball will be featured for the final four rounds. This is how I prefer my NCAA Tournament.
A few fun upsets early are fine, and while I'm a sucker for a deep Cinderella run like everybody else, for the most part, I want the best of the best going at it. Plus, if we squint our eyes hard enough, NC State kind of looks like a Cinderella. Sure, it's from a power conference and has won the NCAA Tournament twice, but it did need to win five straight games to even earn a place in the Big Dance and has kept on winning.
The Wolfpack are also a Cinderella when comparing their rating to the rest of the Sweet 16 field. While KenPom rankings aren't the end-all-be-all of college basketball, they're a useful tool for determining which teams have the best chance to continue winning. If we look at KenPom rankings from before the tournament began, NC State was ranked 56th. No other team in the Sweet 16 ranked lower than Clemson at 36th. The other 14 programs ranked 19th or higher.
In other words, while teams like No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue have looked dominant, this tournament is anybody's for the taking. Just look at the point spreads for the Sweet 16 matchups.
The biggest favorite on the board is UConn, which is an 11-point favorite over No. 5 seed San Diego State in a rematch of last year's national title game. Aside from that, only one other Sweet 16 matchup features a spread of more than two possessions; No. 2 seed Arizona is a 7-point favorite over No. 6 seed Clemson.
The average spread for the eight games is 5.4 points. That's two possessions in games that will feature anywhere between 60 and 75 possessions. For the rest of the dance, we're essentially dealing with a series of coin flips. Anything can happen, and that will continue to be the case into the Elite Eight, Final Four and national title game.
No, the first weekend didn't bring as much insanity as you wanted. But the next two weekends? Strap in because it's going to be a wild, bumpy ride.
