The No. 1 overall seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament lived up to the billing in its opening game. The Gonzaga Bulldogs throttled Norfolk State by a 43-point margin, advancing in the March Madness bracket to the second round and maintaining a 27-0 record for the season. Gonzaga will face a stiffer test in its second contest against Lon Kruger and the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma, representing the Big 12, advanced with a competitive win over Missouri in the opening round. The Sooners (16-10) will be without second-leading scorer De'Vion Harmon (COVID-19) in this matchup.
Hinkle Fieldhouse will host this 2:40 p.m. ET tip on CBS. The latest Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma odds from William Hill Sportsbook list the Bulldogs as 14.5-point favorites, while the over-under is set at 154.5 -- the highest total of any Monday NCAA Tournament game. Before making any Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga:
- Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma spread: Gonzaga -14.5
- Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma over-under: 154.5 points
- Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma money line: Gonzaga -1600, Oklahoma +850
- ZAGS: The Bulldogs are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
- OU: The Sooners are 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why Gonzaga can cover
The Bulldogs are virtually unstoppable on the offensive end. Gonzaga leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, with a country-leading mark in 2-point shooting (63.8 percent) and a very strong 3-point mark of 37.3 percent. The Bulldogs should be able to take advantage of an Oklahoma defense that ranks 269th in 3-point shooting allowed at 35.7 percent. Beyond its shooting efficiency, Gonzaga avoids turnovers very well, issuing a giveaway on only 16.1 percent of possessions, and the Bulldogs are above-average in offensive rebounding, free throw creation and avoiding blocked shots.
On the opposite end, Gonzaga isn't quite as good, but the Bulldogs are still a top-10 defensive squad in the country. They are excellent on the defensive glass, grabbing 77.1 percent of available rebounds, and opponents are shooting just 46.1 percent from two-point range and 32.5 percent from 3-point land against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs also own an outstanding 11.0 percent steal rate, and they are a top-50 team at keeping opponents off the free throw line. Oklahoma ranks outside the top 225 nationally in free throw creation rate.
Why Oklahoma can cover
The Sooners are above-average on both ends of the floor, and that balance is key against Gonzaga. Senior guard Austin Reaves leads the offense in averaging 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Oklahoma is also elite in the area of ball security, turning the ball over on only 15.5 percent of possessions, and the Sooners are a very potent free throw shooting team, converting 74.7 percent of their shots. The Sooners are also above-average in 2-point shooting (50.3 percent), and Gonzaga has a mild weakness in protecting the rim, including a meager 7.1 percent block rate.
Defensively, Oklahoma is a top-15 in preventing free throw attempts, and that helps to bolster its overall efficiency. The Sooners are also excellent in 2-point defense, allowing only 45.9 percent, and that is critical against Gonzaga's effective offense. Lon Kruger's team also has strong metrics in block rate (9.3 percent) and steal rate (10.4 percent), with the potential to create havoc defensively.
How to make Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 158 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
