The No. 3 Baylor Bears will be seeking the first national championship in school history on Monday night when they take on the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in the 2021 NCAA Tournament National Championship Game. The Bears (27-2) hammered second-seeded Houston 78-59 in the semifinals Saturday night, and a defensive approach bolstered by elite outside shooting has them in the title game for the first time since 1948. The Bulldogs (31-0) also are seeking their first title after finishing as runner-up in 2017, and they are the highest-scoring team in Division I. They would be the first undefeated national champion in 45 years.
Tip-off from Lucas Oil Stadium is set for 9:20 p.m. ET on CBS. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 4.5-point favorites in its latest Baylor vs. Gonzaga odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 159.5. Before making any Gonzaga vs. Baylor picks, check out the Gonzaga vs. Baylor prediction and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. Baylor in the national championship of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Baylor vs. Gonzaga:
- Baylor vs. Gonzaga spread: Gonzaga -4.5
- Baylor vs. Gonzaga over-under: 159.5 points
- Baylor vs. Gonzaga money line: Gonzaga -200, Baylor +175
- BAY: The Bears have had four different leading scorers in the five NCAA Tournament games
- ZAGS: F Drew Timme is averaging 25 points over the past four games
Why Gonzaga can cover
Gonzaga is 4-1 against the spread in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, failing to cover only in Saturday's 93-90 overtime heart-stopper against UCLA. The Zags are the nation's top offensive team, averaging NCAA highs in scoring (92.1) and shooting percentage (55.1). They are scoring 89.2 and shooting 54.6 in the tournament and have hit 39.1 percent from 3-point range. The offense is led by Timme and freshman guard Jalen Suggs, and all five starters scored in double figures, and four shot better than 50 percent, in Saturday night's victory.
Timme leads the team in scoring (19.2) and rebounds (7.1), while Suggs adds 14.1 points and leads the Zags with 4.6 assists. They are a tough combination, but opponents also have to deal with guard Joel Ayayi, who scored 22 points Saturday, and forward Corey Kispert, who averages 18.8 points and hits 44.5 percent from 3-point range. Andrew Nembhard scores 9.2 points and adds 4.4 assists for a team that averages 18.3 per game (second in NCAA). Four starters average at least five boards as the Bulldogs outrebound opponents by eight per contest.
Why Baylor can cover
Baylor is 19-10 against the spread overall this season and just crushed the nation's top-ranked shooting and No. 2 scoring defense by 19 points. Guards Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague lead a formidable offense in its own right, with the Bears scoring more than 84 points per game. They lead the nation in 3-point shooting at almost 42 percent, and Butler hit four of his six tries Saturday. He averages a team-high 16.6 points and shoots 41.5 percent from beyond the arc, and he also contributes 4.7 assists and two steals per game.
Mitchell averages 14 points, a team-high 5.5 assists and two steals while shooting 45.3 percent from outside. He hounds shooters and forces turnovers and was named the national Defensive Player of the Year last week. The Bears have caused 26 turnovers in the past two games and lead the nation in steals (9.0) and forced turnovers (17). Butler scored a team-high 17 Saturday, while Mitchell had 12 points and 11 assists. Five Bears scored in double figures and Baylor shot 52 percent, well over the national-best 37.3 percent the Houston defense allowed coming in.
How to make Baylor vs. Gonzaga picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 164 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Gonzaga vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
