The No. 1 seed Baylor Bears could not be better prepared for their all-Texas 2021 Final Four matchup against the second-seeded Houston Cougars on Saturday in Indianapolis. The Bears (26-2) played more than half of their games (15) against 11 schools who advanced to the NCAA Tournament 2021, and Saturday's matchup against the sixth-ranked Cougars (28-3) marks the eighth time in 11 games that they are facing a Top 25 opponent. Baylor also is riding a 22-game non-conference winning streak but is up against a red-hot opponent in Houston that is bidding for its 12th consecutive victory.
Tip-off at Lucas Oil Stadium is set for 5:14 p.m. ET on CBS. The winner advances to the national championship game on Monday to play either Gonzaga or UCLA. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bears as five-point favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 135 in the latest Baylor vs. Houston odds. Before locking in any Houston vs. Baylor picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Houston in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Houston vs. Baylor:
- Baylor vs. Houston spread: Baylor -5
- Baylor vs. Houston over-under: 135 points
- Baylor vs. Houston money line: Baylor -230; Houston +190
- BAY: The Bears are 4-0 against AP top-10 teams this season
- HOU: The Cougars have won 11 straight neutral-site games
Why Baylor can cover
Houston needs a big game out of leading scorer Quentin Grimes so expect the Bears to assign Davion Mitchell to guard him. Mitchell was voted the top defender in the Big 12 Conference and earned a bigger honor when he was named the Naismith Trophy Defensive Player of the Year on Friday. Nicknamed "Off Night" for his ability to shut down an opponent, Mitchell is averaging 2.0 steals in the NCAA Tournament and held Arkansas leading scorer Moses Moody to 2-of-10 shooting in the Elite Eight.
Aside from his stellar defense, Mitchell also averages 14.0 points, a team-high 5.3 assists and shoots 52.3 percent from the floor for the Bears. He is a big reason why Baylor is forcing 17.3 turnovers per game and has committed a total of only 10 miscues over the past three contests. Backcourt mate Jared Butler, the team's top scorer (16.5 points) and a finalist for the Wooden Award as the country's top player, also averages 2.0 steals to go along with 4.8 assists.
Why Houston can cover
Grimes, Marcus Sasser and DeJon Jarreau are 1-2-3 on the Cougars in scoring, averaging a combined 42.3 points, but their contributions do not stop there. In the last three games, the trio has averaged 42.0 points while filling up the stat sheet with 50 rebounds, 30 assists and 17 steals between them. Grimes, averaging 18.0 points both overall and in the NCAAs, has scored at least 13 points in 13 consecutive games, including seven with at least 20.
Grimes has been on a 3-point shooting roll since the start of the American Athletic Conference Tournament, hitting 47.7 percent from behind the arc (31 of 65) over his last seven games. Houston is giving itself ample 3-point opportunities due to its strong work on the backboards, holding a rebounding margin of plus-45 in the tournament. Senior forward Justin Gorham has come up big in that department, collecting 10 rebounds in each of the last two games.
How to make Houston vs. Baylor picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 148 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Baylor vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
