Last season, Teddy Allen was the leading scorer for a Nebraska program that won just seven games. Meanwhile, New Mexico State was following up a Western Athletic Conference championship season with a 12-8 campaign that ended without a NCAA Tournament appearance for a second straight year. After Allen transferred to Las Cruces, both he and the Aggies benefited in a big way, and New Mexico State now has an opportunity to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the early 1990's. In order to do that, they must take down Arkansas in the 2022 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. The Razorbacks finished the regular season ranked as the 17th team in the nation.
Tipoff from Buffalo, N.Y., at the KeyBank Center is set for 8:40 p.m. ET, and the Razorbacks are just 4-3 in all neutral site games this season. The Razorbacks are the 6.5-point favorites in the latest Arkansas vs. New Mexico State odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook and the over-under is set at 138 total points. Before making any New Mexico State vs. Arkansas picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Arkansas vs. New Mexico State and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for New Mexico State vs. Arkansas:
- Arkansas vs. New Mexico State spread: Arkansas -6.5
- Arkansas vs. New Mexico State over-under: 138.5 points
- Arkansas vs. New Mexico State money line: Arkansas -300, New Mexico State +240
- NMSU: 5-0 overall and against the spread as an underdog in 2021-22
- ARK: The Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS as a favorite in last five games
Why Arkansas can cover
The SEC was one of the strongest conferences top-to-bottom in all of college basketball this season, and Arkansas finished with a 13-5 record in league play, just behind other top programs Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Razorbacks are far from the most efficient program in the country, but they have found ways to win in spite of their flaws, and play strong enough defense to stay competitive. Arkansas plays with the 35th-highest offensive pace in all of college basketball, and averages nearly 72 possessions per 40 minutes of play.
The Aggies are a tough defensive program, but Arkansas wins with its volume on offense rather than its precision. Arkansas also shoots just over 30 percent as a team from beyond the 3-point line, but only takes shots from downtown on 34.3 percent of its possessions. The Razorbacks should have the edge down low, keyed by sophomore forward Jaylin Williams, who averages 10.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. Williams finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds in the win against Vermont on Thursday.
Why New Mexico State can cover
By the numbers, Arkansas seems to be winning games in spite of itself. The Razorbacks have made less than 43 percent of their shots in three of their last four games, have shot an abysmal 29.5 percent from beyond the 3-point line during that stretch, and have turned the ball over as many times as they have made an assist. That could spell disaster against a New Mexico State side that has held opponents to shoot just 38 percent from the field and come away with just 5.3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game during the same stretch.
Allen finished as the top scorer in the Western Athletic Conference, but his 19.9 points per game this season is competitive with the nation's top scorers regardless of conference. His 6.1 total win shares was first in the league as well, and he has an offensive usage rate of 30.1 percent. Allen is now on his third Division I program and has finally found a home, so his motivation will be crucial for the Aggies on Saturday.
How to make New Mexico State vs. Arkansas picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 144 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
Who wins Arkansas vs. New Mexico State? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
