Selection Sunday is officially in our rearview and the glorious 68-team bracket for this year's NCAA Tournament is set, which means you've probably stumbled upon this page to gather intel as you make your picks. The good news is that you've landed in the right place. The bad news is that you've now all but officially guaranteed yourself a perfect bracket in the South Regional thanks to my expertise, thus you may be shunned from your friend group after embarrassing everyone else in your bracket pool this year. You're welcome and I'm sorry in advance. Don't say you weren't forewarned.
There's always a chance for madness in March, but the odds of mayhem feels particularly high in the South Regional, which makes picking this bracket tricky. No. 1 seed Houston is the betting favorite to emerge from the bracket and land in the Final Four, but this pod is stacked with stars from the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Marquette and Nebraska, positioning a potential dark horse to emerge from this regional.
Smart money will be on the top-seeded team in Houston. I won't go as far as to lobby against them, but for my money, Duke and Kentucky -- the No. 3 and No. 4 seed in this regional, respectively -- got excellent draws and will be trendy picks to come out of this regional. There's also No. 2 seed Marquette quietly lurking at the bottom of the bracket with star guard Tyler Kolek, the NCAA's leader in assists per game who missed all of the Big East Tournament with an oblique injury, expected to return to action this week.
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Let's break down the South Regional further as the opening games of the 2024 NCAA Tournament approach. Be sure to check out all the betting lines for every game the next few days right here to help as you fill out your bracket.
Best first-round game
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M: Opening odds have Nebraska as just a 2-point favorite in this one over a Texas A&M team that has won five of its last six and made a strong showing in the SEC Tournament. The shot-making of Nebraska will be put to the test against a Texas A&M team that rolls deep at the guard spot and plays with a competitive edge every night. Aggies guard Wade Taylor IV might be the best player in this game and has breakout tournament star written all over him.
Top potential matchup
(1) Houston vs. (4) Duke: Talk about a contrast in styles. (To be fair, Houston vs. anyone is always a contrast in styles, but I digress.) The Cougars kill you with physicality, defense and second-chance points, and Duke wins by running up the score and shooting it at an elite clip. Houston's gameplan in this potential matchup would be fascinating and likely center around pushing Duke off the 3-point line. The game of chess between these two coaches tactically would be marvelous.
Upset lock of the regional
(12) James Madison over (5) Wisconsin: Wisconsin's run through the Big Ten Tournament was fueled in part by some uncharacteristically good shooting from 3-point range. That's where JMU's defense in particular has been effective. The Dukes get after you defensively and have a wealth of older, experienced players who will be up for the moment. The Badgers will get all they can handle here.
Cinderella team that will surprise
(14) Oakland: Oakland is a great story -- coach Greg Kampe has the Golden Grizzlies dancing for the fourth time in school history and for the first time since 2011 -- and let's be honest here, shall we? Its draw isn't exactly one that scares you away. Kentucky has looked different this season than the last few seasons, but the Wildcats lost to No. 15 seed Saint Peter's two years ago and has failed to reach the second round of the tournament three years and counting. If this winds up being a close one with four minutes to go, it will shock no one.
Team that will make a far-too-early exit
(5) Wisconsin: For as bullish as I am about Wisconsin's prospects after an encouraging stay at the Big Ten Tournament, I'm equally as bearish about the matchup it draws with James Madison. The Dukes beat Michigan State early in the season and were among the best all season in the Sun Belt save for a loss at Southern Miss and a pair of slips vs. Appalachian State. Wisconsin could make it to the Final Four or get bounced in the first round and neither result would surprise me, but the likelihood of the latter happening feels higher than the former by a good bit.
Six players to watch
- Jamal Shead, Houston: Shead won Big 12 Player of the Year and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors for a Houston team that won the Big 12 regular season in its first year in the league. He's a defensive dynamo who serves as the heart of the Cougars.
- Keisei Tominaga, Nebraska: The Cornhuskers play a fun and free-flowing offense that features Tominaga prominently and helps him shine doing what he does best: launching from distance. He shot 37.2% from 3-point range this season and scored 30, 23 and 18 points in his three final games leading into the NCAAs.
- Tyler Kolek, Marquette: College basketball's leader in assists per game this season, Kolek has missed the last three weeks as he nurses an oblique injury that cost him the end of the regular season and all of the Big East Tournament. Coach Shaka Smart said Kolek is expected to be available on Friday, and that gives the Golden Eagles a chance to have one of the most impactful players in the entire sport back on the floor for them.
- Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: On a loaded Kentucky team flush with future NBA talent, Sheppard has averaged 12.8 points and shot 52.5% from 3-point range primarily coming off the bench for the Wildcats. He's a playmaker on both ends of the floor who is near-automatic from long range.
- AJ Storr, Wisconsin: Wisconsin made an unlikely run all the way to the Big Ten Tournament title game behind Storr's star power. He averaged 22.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game for the Badgers in four games across four days, and took the reins as their most potent and reliable playmaker when they needed it most. He and Chucky Hepburn look to be peaking at the right time.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke: Filipowski leads Duke in points and rebounds while dishing out nearly three assists per game and shooting 35% from 3-point range. He's the catalyst that drives Duke's offense, and his versatility is in part what makes the Blue Devils and their offensive attack so potent.
South Regional winner
(4) Duke: A loss to North Carolina in the regular-season finale and a loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament opener isn't the way you'd want a talented Duke team to enter the NCAA Tournament. But I've seen enough from this Blue Devils team to believe it has the resilience to bust through. Filipowski is an elite inside-out presence, and the guard rotation of Jared McCain, Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor are liable to go nuclear on any given night with a diverse skill set among the trio. They'll need to play big in a potential matchup vs. Houston and show toughness we've not frequently seen from them, but their finesse, skill and firepower on offense is enough to make me think Duke wins this regional in an upset.
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