From the moment Canelo Alvarez announced interest in moving up two weight divisions to challenge light heavyweight titleholder Sergey Kovalev, fans and critics began the exciting task of attempting to handicap how the fight might play out.
Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs), the unified middleweight champion and biggest star in the sport globally, will headline the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday without the added benefit of a catchweight when he faces the much bigger Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) for the WBO title.
The daring nature of Alvarez's decision did nothing but add to his growing legacy as a star fighter willing to take on the most difficult challenges available to him. The fact that he's the fresher fighter at 29, in his physical prime, also helped the Mexican star to being tabbed as the betting favorite by oddsmakers against Kovalev.
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The key question becomes whether Kovalev, the 36-year-old Russian native, has anything more than a puncher's chance to make Alvarez regret the decision. Let's take a closer look at why Kovalev has the makings to be a very live dog on Saturday and what will need to go his way in order to get there.
1."The Krusher" is a boxer first. Although Kovalev originally built his name as a hard-punching destroyer, he has been anything but a reckless slugger throughout his trio of title runs. It may have taken a 12-round showcase of his boxing skills against Bernard Hopkins in 2014 for anyone to realize such a point, but Kovalev is a largely responsible boxer who relies on an accurate and powerful jab to set up his right hand. Yes, he has a career filled with highlight-reel stoppages, but it's Kovalev's craft that have saved him in some of his biggest wins, including a decision over Eleider Alvarez in February just six months after Alvarez knocked Kovalev out to take his title. The same thing happened in August when Kovalev bounced back from nearly being stopped by the hulking Anthony Yarde only to steady the ship with his jab and box his way into a comeback finish.
What that means against Canelo is that this isn't your typical pairing of quicker, younger boxer moving up to face an aging slugger (think Manny Pacquiao-Antonio Margarito in 2010). Kovalev will need to establish his jab early and use it as a weapon to discipline Alvarez. Yes, Kovalev has his vulnerabilities. From an aversion to the body to a reputation as a front-runner with a shaky chin, he simply wouldn't be in this position to make a career-high payday against Alvarez if Kovalev wasn't compromised so much by age and exposure. But Kovalev is certainly skilled enough to have a shot at setting up his power shots, especially if he can use his jab to position Alvarez in an attempt to cut off the ring.
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2. Kovalev finally has peace and harmony in his corner. If a fighter's relationship with his trainer is never more important than at the beginning and end of his career, then Kovalev's twilight pairing with the kind of calming voice in Hall of Famer Buddy McGirt is a match made in heaven. Not only does McGirt have history resurrecting the latter careers of fighters including the late Arturo Gatti, he has proven to be a voice that Kovalev can finally trust and one that has encouraged him to be smarter. This is admittedly new territory for Kovalev, whose broken road of fighter-trainer flings include being thrown out of Abel Sanchez's camp for bad behavior and seeing his lengthy run with John David Jackson end in a messy public divorce. Kovalev claimed he virtually trained himself for many years and wasn't willing to listen to the instructions of his corner. Even the experiment of bringing in the Russian speaking Abror Tursunpulatov in recent years to guide him ended badly. Either by wisdom or necessity, Kovalev has found new life by listening to McGirt and the positive effect of their relationship was shown when McGirt threatened to stop the fight against Yarde and challenged Kovalev to figure a way out. Both of Kovalev's losses to former pound-for-pound king Andre Ward were marred by late fades and an inability to make adjustments. Don't underestimate just how valuable McGirt can be against Alvarez now that he has secured Kovalev's respect.
3. Wait a second … is this daring to be great or daring to be reckless? You can poll fans, critics, media members, DAZN executives, Alvarez's promoter in Golden Boy and they would tell you that they both expected and hoped he would be fighting Gennadiy Golovkin this week in a third meeting of their all-action feud. The negative press created by Alvarez's decision to spurn GGG -- mostly, it seemed, out of dislike for his bitter rival -- was quickly put to rest by Alvarez's decision to make such a bold move in seeking out Kovalev. But how much of said decision was made in haste as a way to put out an obvious fire? And while Alvarez surely did the right thing in terms of pleasing fans and earning respect by not leaning on his A-side advantages and forcing Kovalev to compromise himself further with a catchweight, was the move necessarily a smart one?
Alvarez was so bold in seeking out Kovalev that it's not wrong to pause for a second and question whether his confidence in this case is bordering just a bit on recklessness, especially since he told media members in last week's conference call he wouldn't shy away from one day facing unified light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev if the fight presented itself. Let's not forget it wasn't so long ago that Alvarez lingered at his preferred catchweight of 155 pounds and was considered a small middleweight who took two full years of waiting Golovkin out before finally moving up. Now, without first testing himself at the new weight, he's going to face a skilled finisher in Kovalev? It makes for great drama, for sure. But Alvarez's one-off at super middleweight last December in a demolition of secondary titleholder (and gun shy) Rocky Fielding wasn't necessarily an introduction to what absorbing top-shelf light heavyweight power will feel like. Any combination of Alvarez's chin not proving itself to be sturdy enough at 175 pounds or his middleweight power not carrying as easily could open the door for Kovalev to thrive.
4. What happens in Kovalev goes for broke? Technically, on paper, this is a 12-round title fight. But is there a scenario, save for Kovalev scoring a handful of early knockdowns, in which one can be confident that anyone is capable of earning a decision against Alvarez in Las Vegas? Considering his track record of getting the benefit of the doubt time and time again in close fights, it's a worthy conversation. So what happens if Kovalev, knowing his history of fading late and knowledgable enough to realize his vulnerability to body shots will only increase as the fight rolls on, decides to be the bigger man from the opening bell and play the short game? Instead of a 12-round fight, what if Kovalev enters with the mindset of going six as hard as he possibly can in an effort to match power with the smaller Alvarez? It's a scenario that certainly brings an equal amount of danger upon himself considering the gap in defensive prowess between he and the shifty Alvarez. But it's also a scenario in which Kovalev might have the best chance of winning. Does he have it in him to enter into a firefight in the early rounds? That's a question that only Kovalev can answer.
