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Why are bettors fading Caitlin Clark for WNBA ROY?
Caitlin Clark is the heavy favorite to take home WNBA Rookie of the Year honors, but bettors are putting their money elsewhere.
When the 2024 WNBA season began, there was little doubt about the player with the highest expectations as a rookie: No. 1 pick Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever.
The top Rookie of the Year candidates
After a record-breaking college career at Iowa, Clark was established as the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year at sportsbooks (opened at -650 at BetMGM, for example) and has been the odds-on favorite to win the award all season. Clark’s odds even climbed to -3000 at some books after Los Angeles Sparks rookie Cameron Brink’s season-ending injury last month.
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Brink had opened with the second-best odds to Clark, but recently Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese has been making a push up the odds board. Reese opened north of 30-1 at online sportsbooks to win the award, but now has a WNBA-record 13 consecutive games with a double-double. Reese was named the WNBA Rookie of the Month for June and is now the clear second choice for ROY (+380 at FanDuel Sportsbook). The former LSU Tiger is currently leading the WNBA in rebounding.
“Voters’ mindset”
Both rookies are putting up historic numbers. But remember, “any time you have an awards market, you have to try to account for the voters’ mindset,” Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics Sportsbook, said in a release. “If Clark and Reese continue to shine, the key tiebreaker in voters’ minds will likely be which rookie makes it to the playoffs. The Fever and Sky are both in the mix for the final two playoff spots, but the Sky have a much tougher schedule going forward.”
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Among WNBA Rookie of the Year wagers at Fanatics Sportsbook, Reese now has 57.5% of the bets and more than 81% of the total dollars wagered, more than 13 times the number of bets that Clark has amassed. Part of that also has to do with the big odds offered on Reese versus the very small payout for bettors from a wager on Clark.
“As popular as Clark is, a lot of bettors just don’t like to lay that heavy of a price and she’s been -1000 or shorter for the award for a lot of the season,” Meyers noted. “Instead, they’ll opt for popular long shots with potential for bigger payouts. Just look at Clark – she doesn’t have much Rookie of the Year interest as a huge favorite, however, she’s received the second-most tickets and handle for MVP when she’s been +1000 or longer nearly the entire time this market has been up.”
Other oddsmakers didn’t seem too concerned with Reese’s rise, though, as one bookmaker I reached out to said that Reese had “zero chance” to win the award, even though her odds had moved from 32-1 to +300.
Clark and Reese by the numbers
Clark is averaging 16 points, 5.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game on 39.1% shooting on the season. Reese goes for 13.9 points and 11.7 rebounds per game on 41% shooting from the field. The two competitors will be on the same side for the WNBA All-Star game on July 20 in Phoenix.
Currently, Reese has the highest share of bet count (66%) and handle (62%) to win ROY. Clark has the second most handle at 22%. Clark is currently -700 in the full field market and Reese is currently +380. Clark opened the season at -700 and Reese opened at +3000.
In the Clark vs. the field market FanDuel Sportsbook has available, the field is taking 90% of the bets and 79% of handle.
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It should be an interesting race to follow, but unless Reese can help her team to the playoffs instead of Clark or put up more points, it’s very likely Clark’s award to lose.