These are the best anytime touchdown bets for Ravens vs. Steelers in Week 11

Can George Pickens continue his red hot stretch against a susceptible Ravens pass defense?

One of the best games on a jam-packed NFL Week 11 schedule is the Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not only is it one of the fiercest division rivalries in the NFL, but the winner will also claim first place in the competitive AFC North. Pittsburgh (7-2) is currently just a half-game ahead of Baltimore (7-3). 

In recent years, this matchup has almost always been a defensive slugfest, with both franchises consistently boasting one of the best defenses in the NFL. That is still the case for Pittsburgh, which is 2nd in scoring defense (16.2 points per game), 8th in total defense (302.7 yards per game), 10th in DVOA and seventh in EPA. However, the Ravens’ defense has struggled this year, especially against the pass. Baltimore leads the league in run defense, but they are dead last in passing defense, allowing 294.9 yards per game. They are also 25th in DVOA and 30th in EPA against the pass. 

The Ravens have morphed into an offense-driven team this season, as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are leading the best offense in the league by nearly every statistical measure. So one of the big questions entering this game is whether the Ravens’ offense can stay hot against the Steelers’ stout defense. If they do, can Russell Wilson and the Steelers’ offense exploit the Ravens’ passing defense enough to keep up? 

The last seven games between these teams have seen fewer than 40 points scored, and six of them have had 30 points or fewer. Sportsbooks expect a higher-scoring affair this time, with the over/under set at 48.5 points. The Steelers have won seven of the last eight games against the Ravens, and they have a better record this season, but they are still 3-point home underdogs against the spread at sportsbooks such as bet365. 

A higher-scoring game means more opportunities for anytime touchdown prop bets. This article examines the best anytime TD bets in this game, including the best betting odds for each pick at the time of publication. As always, it’s recommended to shop around for the best odds at all the best online sportsbooks before placing any bets.

Quick note on Derrick Henry

Henry has been easy money on anytime TD bets this season. He has scored a touchdown in every game, has four games with multiple touchdowns, and leads the league with 14 total touchdowns. With that type of consistency, it’s always tempting to bet on Henry, even with odds at -180 at FanDuel. Getting more than $0.50 on the dollar for a bet that seems like a mortal lock every week is still good value. 

However, the Steelers have one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing just 87.1 yards per game (4th) and 3.8 yards per carry (3rd). Even for a player as dominant as Henry has been, the low odds and the tough matchup should steer bettors towards other players in this game.

George Pickens (+140, FanDuel)

Ever since Russell Wilson took over the Steelers’ offense from Justin Fields in Week 7, George Pickens has been on fire. He is averaging 92.0 yards per game on a whopping 19.7 yards per catch and has caught two touchdowns in those three games (with a third one called back on an unrelated penalty). With Justin Fields under center for the first six games, he averaged 60.5 yards per game on 14.0 yards per catch with zero touchdowns. Now he faces a Ravens defense that is going to force Wilson to air it out, which makes Pickens a great anytime TD bet this week.

Creating explosive plays down the field has been the key to Pickens’ recent surge with Wilson. Over the last three games, he has five explosive catches (20+ yards) on 14 receptions. They have gone for totals of 44, 37, 43, 34 and 24 yards. He also drew a defensive pass interference penalty for 29 yards. 

The Ravens’ defense has allowed 45 explosive passing plays this season, tied for the most in the league. They have allowed an explosive pass on 10.1% of opponent passing plays, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. They have also allowed just seven explosive runs (10+ yards), and an explosive run rate of just 3.6%, which are both the most marks in the league by a wide margin. 

That means the Steelers’ best way to attack the Ravens is targeting Pickens on deep shots. Given the matchup and his recent production, the chances of Pickens creating an explosive play in this game are high, and it would not be surprising if he does it multiple times. If that happens, there is also a good chance he takes one of those big plays to the house. 

Of course, with his 6-3 frame, Pickens is also an excellent red zone target. He leads the Steelers with 12 red zone targets this season, including five since Wilson took over. He has a 33.3% red zone target share with Wilson under center.

The matchup with the Ravens’ pass-funnel defense creates an ideal situation for Pickens and makes him the best anytime TD bet in this game.

Jaylen Warren (+260, FanDuel)

Another consequence of the Ravens having a dominant run defense and a porous pass defense is that Jaylen Warren could see more action in this game than Najee Harris. Warren is the better pass-catcher of the two Steelers running backs, so if the offense is calling more passing plays in this game, then that should mean a heavier workload for Warren this week compared to Harris.

While the Ravens are dominant against the run, they have been vulnerable to pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to running backs (47.0) and the eighth-most receptions (5.1). They have also allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs, tied for third-most in the league. 

Since returning from a two-game absence in Week 6, Warren has claimed an even larger share of the Steelers’ backfield snaps. He has played 43.3% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps compared to just above 50% for Harris over that span. It’s no coincidence that usage has coincided with Wilson taking over the offense and making it a more balanced attack. 

Warren has yet to score a touchdown this season, but with his expected role in the offense in this game, he is a good bet to change that this week. He is priced as low as +125 at BetMGM, just 15 points longer than Harris, but there is a much wider gap at other sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, where is odds are about twice what they are at BetMGM. That also makes Warren a nice value as an anytime TD bet in this game.

It’s worth noting that Warren did pop up on the injury report after missing practice on Thursday, but he returned to a limited practice on Friday and is expected to play in this game.

Zay Flowers (+190, FanDuel)

As noted above, Derrick Henry is clearly the most likely player in this game to score a touchdown, but his odds make that a less attractive bet. Instead, the best Ravens player to bet on scoring a TD this week is wide receiver Zay Flowers.

Flowers had a surprisingly quiet game last week, but he had at least 111 receiving yards in four of his previous five games. He only had two touchdowns during that stretch, and both of these touchdowns came against the Broncos in Week 9. That is significant because the Ravens used Flowers much more heavily from the slot in that game, and that could be the case again this week. 

Flowers ran 53% of his routes from the slot against Denver so that he could escape the shadow coverage from elite cornerback Patrick Surtain II. The Ravens could deploy a similar plan this week because Steelers top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is also a threat to shadow outsider receivers. Undrafted rookie slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr. would be a much more favorable matchup for Flowers.

There could also be a schematic advantage for Flowers in this game. The Steelers play a single high safety at the highest rate in the league this season (71% of snaps). Flowers has been deadly against single high coverage this season. He has gained 3.36 yards per route run (YPRR) against single high, which is a significant jump from his 2.40 YPRR overall this season. Lamar Jackson has targeted Flowers on a whopping 30.3% of his pass attempts against single high, and he has looked to Flowers as his first read on 32% of his dropbacks.

Even with the addition of Diontae Johnson, Flowers is still the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in this offense, and this matchup presents multiple reasons to like his chances of finding the endzone this week.