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Why the Pittsburgh Steelers have sportsbooks worried
With NFL bettors’ apparent belief in the Steelers, sportsbooks will be keeping a close eye on Mike Tomlin’s team.
As we enter the dog days of summer – with NFL training camps set to begin later this month – it’s a good time to take stock of the league from an NFL betting perspective. It’s usually around this time every year that we start calling up bookmakers from across the country to get their insights about what respected bettors and the public are betting on, and those calls lead to a few interesting article ideas.
When we spoke to several bookmakers in June, there were a few notable nuggets that came out of those conversations, but one that stood out was the love bettors seem to have for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Consistency in Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season, securing a wild-card spot and losing in the wild-card round 31-17 as 12.5-point road underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. Despite poor quarterback play from the combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky for most of the season, Pittsburgh finished above its win total (9) for the fourth consecutive season and extended head coach Mike Tomlin’s record of 17 straight non-losing seasons with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh went out and acquired both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason, which should give the Steelers better QB production. However, with a win total of 8.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and arguably the toughest division in all of football, we were surprised to learn that bettors liked the Steelers to go over their win total. They’re also betting on them to win the AFC North and even the Super Bowl.
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Validated on: October 31, 2024
“At 7.5, we got nothing but Over bets,” Christian Cipollini, a trader at BetMGM, said over the phone. “At 8.5, we also mostly took Over bets, but it was a little more even. To make the playoffs, we’ve been taking pretty much only Yes money on Pittsburgh.”
Betting the Steelers Over
The Steelers Over is the most bet season win total among all 32 NFL teams at BetMGM Sportsbook.
“I feel like the Steelers are this team every season, they’re always around .500,” Cipollini said. “We’ll take mixed bets from them – public bettors think they’ll be bad and the sharper people like them. Some people that think Wilson will be benched quickly and think Fields will play well. Sentiment with everyone is that Wilson is approaching cooked level. That would be the angle, or people betting the playoffs based on the fact that they’re in it every year and get a plus-money price.”
The Steelers opened at +8000 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, and are now down to +4000.
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Validated on: October 31, 2024
Are sportsbooks nervous?
“Our biggest liability is actually the Steelers,” Cipollini noted. “We’ve had a couple years in a row of this where based on the price we end up with liability on them.”
The story was similar in Las Vegas when we spoke to John Murray, the executive director of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, a sportsbook known for taking action from respected bettors.
“People won’t stop betting the Steelers with us,” Murray said. “They are our biggest liability in the Super Bowl market. It’s been a while since they’ve been a team that you thought could win it all, though.”
Other oddsmakers weren’t as high on Pittsburgh’s chances this season.
“I don’t think they’ll be .500 this year and that streak will end,” Zachary Lucas, retail sportsbook director at TwinSpires told us. “Looking at their schedule and their roster, I’d be shocked if they get 10 wins. I don’t believe in Wilson at all.”
Steelers 2024 outlook
Can Wilson and/or Fields, along with Tomlin and a strong defense, reward Steelers backers?
It will likely come down to a brutal finishing stretch for Pittsburgh, which involves all six divisional games (Pittsburgh went a remarkable 5-1 in the division last year, albeit with many games against backup QBs), along with games versus Kansas City and at Philadelphia.
That’s a gauntlet indeed.
“It’s such a tough division, I can’t see any scenario where they are .500 or better,” Lucas said. “You’re just throwing away money if you’re betting them +800 for the division.”
Other Steelers 2024 bets
In addition to betting on the Steelers’ win total, to win their division and/or the Super Bowl, there are a plethora of bets you can now place at online sportsbooks like FanDuel.
FanDuel Sportsbook already has lines available for the Steelers opener in Atlanta (where the Steelers are +2.5), as well as their Christmas Day game where they will host the Kansas City Chiefs. There are tons of other betting options, including who will be the Steelers starting QB in Week 1, where Russell Wilson (-1000) is currently the favorite.
Think Najee Harris will score at least 10 rushing touchdowns during the regular season (+460)? What about Justin Fields to throw 25 or more passing touchdowns?
If you’re feeling really strongly about the Steelers, you can even bet on them to go 17-0 (+85000) or 0-17 (+18000).
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