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Two staff aces will square off Monday when Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants host Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds at Oracle Park in San Francisco in the first of a three-game series. Webb (1-0, 3.00 ERA) and the Giants (8-1) are off to a fast start this season, currently leading the NL West by percentage points over the rival Dodgers (9-2). Meanwhile Greene (0-1, 2.25) and the Reds (3-7) are looking for their first series win of the season, after dropping their first three series to the Giants, Rangers and Brewers.
The Webb-Greene pitching matchup is only one of 11 on Monday's MLB slate. Some of the other top matchups include the Yankees' Carlos Rodon (1-1, 3.97) facing the Tigers' Casey Mize (1-0, 0.00), the Dodgers' Dustin May (0-0, 0.00) taking the mound against the Nationals' MacKenzie Gore (0-1, 2.45) and the Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.38) squaring off against the Orioles' Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.75).
For the Webb-Greene matchup, sportsbooks have set Greene's total strikeout player prop at 6.5, while Webb's is 5.5. Neither prop, however, rates better than 3.5 stars on the SportsLine Projection Model's five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts rates as a 3.5, while Greene Over 6.5 rates as a 3.
However, there are four pitcher strikeout player props for Monday that the model has rated at 4.5 or better, including one that rates as a 5. Here they are:
Carmen Mlodzinski Under 3.5 strikeouts (-102) vs. Cardinals (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.2 strikeouts
St. Louis batters have struck out 73 times this season; just eight teams have fewer strikeouts. More importantly, the Cardinals have fanned just 44 times against right-handed pitchers; only the Padres and Phillies have fewer strikeouts against righties. Meanwhile the Pirates' Mlodzinski is making the transition from relief pitcher to starter and did not get out of the fourth inning of his 2025 debut, a 6-1 loss to the Rays.
Richard Fitts Over 3.5 strikeouts (+133) vs. Blue Jays (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
One of the top pitching prospects in the Red Sox organization, Fitts is coming off a quality start against the Rangers (three earned runs and four strikeouts in 6.0 innings). The 25-year-old righty also was solid in spring training, averaging almost a strikeout per inning (14 strikeouts in 14.2 innings.) On Monday, he will face a Toronto team that struck out eight times in Sunday's 2-1 loss to the Mets.
Easton Lucas Over 3.5 strikeouts (-154) vs. Red Sox (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
Just three teams have struck out more times this season than Boston, which has fanned 76 times already this year. That bodes well for the Blue Jays' Lucas, who is coming off a sensational first career major league start, allowing only one hit and zero runs in 5.0 innings in a win over the Nationals. The 28-year-old lefty has the potential to give fits to a Red Sox lineup with four key lefthanded bats.
Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 strikeouts (-120) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
The Twins' Woods Richardson has a nasty breaking ball that helped him strike out five White Sox over just 4.0 innings in an 8-3 Minnesota victory. The performance continued a solid run for the 24-year-old righty, who struck out 13 batters across 15.1 innings during spring training. He will face a Kansas City club that struck out seven times Sunday against the Orioles.
