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Three NFL underdogs that could win outright in Week 1
Why Carolina, Jacksonville and the Jets have great chances to pull off upsets this weekend.
The start of any NFL season is met with expectations that are through the roof, and that is certainly the case in 2024. Months of buildup will crest in Week 1, which features a couple of appetizer games on Thursday and Friday (in Brazil) before a full schedule of Sunday action and the traditional wrap-up on Monday evening.
The relative lack of information for Week 1 provides potential opportunities for betting value. To that end, here are three underdogs and the case for each to win outright in the season’s first week.
Carolina Panthers (+176, FanDuel) over New Orleans Saints
The Panthers were abjectly terrible a year ago, finishing with the league’s worst record and gifting the No. 1 overall pick to the Bears. That season is over, however, and Carolina has reason for optimism in advance of Week 1.
The Panthers upgraded their offensive line in an attempt to keep former top pick Bryce Young clean in his second season, and Young is in line for a step forward. He enters the season opener with better weapons, headlined by Diontae Johnson, and there will be no intimidation with Carolina traveling to New Orleans for an NFC South clash in the opener. While the Panthers are clearly improved from a year ago, the Saints largely stood pat in the offseason, and expectations are modest as a result.
New Orleans is rightly favored in this game at home, but division matchups tend to lead to close results. This is a value spot on a road team that may be undervalued after dismal results when the football world last saw the Panthers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+140, DraftKings) over Miami Dolphins
While most teams would be fighting an uphill battle playing an outdoor game in Miami in early September from a weather perspective, Jacksonville should not have that problem. Granted, neither team will have fun dealing with sweltering conditions, but having a full training camp should lessen that particular challenge for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars did not overly inspire in 2023, losing five of their last six games to finish 9-8. Along the way, however, Jacksonville did knock off New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston on the road and Buffalo in London.
The Jaguars spent big in the offseason to upgrade their roster while also retaining core pieces such as quarterback Trevor Lawrence on long-term deals. Miami does present unique challenges with its speed, but the Dolphins faced some injury issues at the end of training camp and could be wobbly in advance of this matchup.
New York Jets (+166, FanDuel) over San Francisco 49ers
The final game in Week 1 will take place in Santa Clara, Calif., with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets taking on the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Early betting action has moved the point spread a touch toward the Jets from the opening line earlier in the summer, and New York is actually healthy in key ways for this matchup. For one, Rodgers is back after missing almost the entire 2023 campaign with injury, and while there are injury and age concerns, he will be fresh for the opener.
The Jets also bring back a stellar defense, and the combination of running back Breece Hall and receiver Garrett Wilson can stack up against any RB-WR duo in the league. Some of the penalty the Jets might pay for a cross-country trip during the season should be lessened by not having a preseason game the week before and the lack of a bounce-back needed from a previous game.
In addition, the 49ers are facing all kinds of uncertainty. Brandon Aiyuk finally signed a new deal, but the standout wide receiver endured a disrupted training camp because of his contract situation. Elite offensive tackle Trent Williams held out camp due to another contract dispute, and rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall suffered a brutal attack that will keep him off the field for some time. The 49ers are also less deep and talented at key spots up front on the defensive side from a year ago, and San Francisco will be battling the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.
The Jets shouldn’t be favored to win on the road against the reigning NFC champions, but this is strong value for a live underdog that is more than capable of pulling a very mild Week 1 upset.
