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Odds, preview and best bets for Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Who will win this battle between the best two teams in the NFC?
| WHO | Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 1:00pm ET |
| WHERE | U.S. Bank Stadium | Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| HOW | FOX |
Through six weeks, the NFC North is not just the best division in the NFL, but possibly the best division the NFL has ever seen at this point in a season. Never before has every team in a division had at least four wins through the first six weeks of a season. The division’s cumulative point differential is +211 (the AFC West is second at +20). The highest division point differential in history belongs to the 2013 NFC West at +359. The NFC North is already 59% of the way there even though the season is less than one-third over.
At the very top of this top division sit the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions. The Vikings are undefeated, have the best point differential in the NFL, and are number one in the league in DVOA. The Lions have the second-best record in the NFC, the second-best point differential in the NFL, and are number two in the league in DVOA. The third and fourth-best point differentials in the NFL belong to the other two teams in the division. (The last time any NFL division occupied all the top spots in point differential in any week in the season was 1942, when the West did it, featuring three of the same four teams: the Lions, Bears and Packers.) So winning divisional games in the NFC North is an absolute must for any team with serious postseason aspirations.
The Vikings have already beaten the teams with the second, fifth, ninth and tenth best Super Bowl odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Lions have yet to face any team in the top 10. The Vikings also won the only NFC North battle yet this season, while this week’s game will be the Lions’ first divisional game.
This matchup between two of the top teams in the league features both elite offenses and defenses, so it’s hard to get a handle on the over/under, which is the third-highest total in the league in Week 7. After all, each of the last five games between the Lions and Vikings has gone over the total points line, and the Lions currently lead the league in scoring at 30.2 PPG, with the Vikings just behind in seventh at 27.8 PPG. But the Vikings are allowing the third-fewest points at 15.2 PPG and the Lions the eighth-fewest at 18.2 PPG. Here are the current betting odds for Lions vs. Vikings at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions spread | +2.5 (-115) | +2.5 (-110) | +2 (-110) |
| Vikings spread | -2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-110) | -2 (-110) |
| Lions moneyline | +110 | +114 | +115 |
| Vikings moneyline | -130 | -135 | -135 |
| Over | Over 49.5 (-110) | Over 49.5 (-112) | Over 49.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-108) | Under 49.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Lions
The Lions are coming off an absolute shellacking of the Dallas Cowboys. Their confidence and momentum have never been higher. More importantly, they have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against the Vikings. In fact, they have covered the spread in each of the last eight divisional games in which they were an underdog.
The Vikings have some offensive concerns coming into this game. In their most recent game, quarterback Sam Darnold looked more like the Sam Darnold of previous seasons than the Sam Darnold of 2024. In addition, star running back Aaron Jones is currently “week-to-week” with a hip injury and may miss the Lions game. The Vikings offense looked much worse against the Jets once Jones departed. And whereas the Vikings have vastly exceeded expectations thus far this season, and so some reversion to the mean is to be expected, the Lions are exactly who we thought they were.
Why bet on the Vikings
The Week 6 bye came at the perfect time for the Vikings. It gave Sam Darnold an extra week to recover from his rib injury and provides an outside shot that Aaron Jones could return as well. Darnold will also have his full complement of weapons for the first time all season, as former Lions star tight end T.J. Hockenson is expected to make his season debut, having fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered the last time these teams met in 2023.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings can look to take advantage of some Detroit injuries. Detroit’s secondary has question marks, but the team’s defense has been led by an elite pass rush, in particular star edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson, who has led the NFL in sacks, QB hits and QB pressures. But Hutchinson suffered a horrific tibia fracture in the Cowboys game and is out for the rest of the season. This comes after the Lions’ other starting edge, Marcus Davenport, also suffered a season-ending injury. The rest of the Lions combined have fewer sacks than Hutchinson did by himself. They only have two players with more than two QB hits. Without both starting edge rushers, the Lions will struggle to pressure Darnold, who is protected by one of the best tackle pairs in the NFL in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Expect Darnold to have time to find Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hockenson downfield.
Best bet for Lions vs. Vikings: Lions to win by 1-13 points (+160, FanDuel)
While the Vikings may be able to move the ball against Detroit’s defense, Detroit also has the best offense in the NFC, which will challenge the Vikings’ league-best defense. Although advanced stats indicate that the Vikings’ pass defense has been excellent this year and their yardage total allowed mostly reflects volume, as they have so frequently been winning big that opposing teams are forced to pass, it is still true that the Vikings are allowing the third most passing yards per game.
Now they face Jared Goff, who is leading the NFL with an absurd 76.3% completion percentage, which would easily be an NFL record. Goff is also leading the league with an equally absurd 9.6 yards per attempt and leading the league in quarterback rating (112.7).
Taking into account the Lions recent run of success against the Vikings, expect Goff to continue his hot start to the season and overcome the Vikings elite defense. But it should be a close game. So instead of taking the Lions’ moneyline, you can bet them to win by fewer than 14 points at more favorable odds at FanDuel.
Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 24