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Betting preview, stats and best bets for Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Who will win this battle between the best two teams in the NFC?
| WHO | Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings |
| WHEN | Sunday at 1 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | U.S. Bank Stadium | Minneapolis |
| TV | FOX |
Through six weeks, the NFC North is not just the best division in the NFL, but possibly the best division the NFL has ever seen at this point in a season. Never before has every team in a division had at least four wins through the first six weeks of a season. The division’s cumulative point differential is +211. (The AFC West is second at +20.) The highest division point differential in history belongs to the 2013 NFC West at +359. The NFC North is already 59% of the way there even though the season is less than one-third over.
At the top of the top division sit the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions. The Vikings (5-0) are undefeated, have the best point differential (+63) in the NFL and are No. 1 in the league in DVOA. The Lions (4-1) have the second-best record in the NFC and the second-best point differential (+60) in the NFL and are No. 2 in the league in DVOA.
The third- and fourth-best point differentials in the NFL belong to the other two teams in the division. (The last time any NFL division occupied all the top spots in point differential in any week in the season was 1942, when the West did it, featuring three of the same four teams: the Lions, Bears and Packers.) So winning divisional games in the NFC North is an absolute must for any team with serious postseason aspirations.
The Vikings have already beaten the teams with the second-, fifth-, ninth- and 10th-shortest Super Bowl odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Lions have yet to face any team in the top 10. The Vikings also won the only NFC North battle yet this season, against the Packers, while Sunday’s game will be the Lions’ first divisional game.
This matchup between two of the top teams in the league features both elite offenses and defenses, and sportsbooks have made the over/under the third-highest total in the league in Week 7, at 49.5. Each of the last five games between the Lions and Vikings has gone Over the total, and Detroit currently leads the league in scoring at 30.2 points per game, while Minnesota ranks seventh at 27.8. But the Vikings are allowing the third-fewest points at 15.2, with the Lions ranking eighth at 18.2. Here are the current betting odds for Lions vs. Vikings at some of the best online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions spread | +1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Vikings spread | -1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Lions moneyline | +110 | +102 | +105 |
| Vikings moneyline | -130 | -122 | -125 |
| Over | Over 50.5 (-110) | Over 50.5 (-112) | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-108) | Under 50.5 (-110) |
Why the Lions can cover
The Lions are coming off an absolute shellacking of the Dallas Cowboys, adding to the team’s confidence and momentum. More importantly, Detroit has covered the spread in each of its last seven games against the Vikings. In fact, the Lions have covered the spread in each of their last eight divisional games in which they were an underdog.
The Vikings have some offensive concerns coming into Sunday. In their most recent game, quarterback Sam Darnold looked more like the Darnold of previous seasons than the Darnold of 2024. In addition, star running back Aaron Jones is week-to-week with a hip injury and may miss the game. The offense looked much worse against the Jets once Jones departed.
Why the Vikings can cover
The Week 6 bye came at the perfect time for the Vikings. It gave Darnold an extra week to recover from his rib injury and provides an outside shot that Jones could return as well. Darnold will also have his full complement of weapons for the first time all season, as former Lions star tight end T.J. Hockenson is expected to make his season debut, having fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered the last time these teams met, in 2023.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings can take advantage of some Detroit injuries. The Lions defense has been led by an elite pass rush, in particular star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has led the NFL in sacks, QB hits and QB pressures. But Hutchinson suffered a horrific tibia and fibula fracture in the Cowboys game and is out four to six months. This comes after Detroit’s other starting edge, Marcus Davenport, also suffered a season-ending injury.
The rest of the Lions combined have fewer sacks than Hutchinson did by himself. Detroit has only two players with more than two QB hits. Without both starting edge rushers, the Lions could struggle to pressure Darnold, who is protected by one of the best tackle pairs in the NFL in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. If Detroit cannot replace Hutchinson’s production, Darnold figures to have time to find Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hockenson downfield.
Best bet for Lions vs. Vikings: Lions to win by 1-13 points (+160, FanDuel)
While the Vikings may be able to move the ball against Detroit’s defense, the Lions also have the best offense in the NFC, which will challenge Minnesota’s No. 1 defense. Although advanced stats indicate that the Vikings’ pass defense has been excellent this year and opposing teams have been forced to pass, Minnesota is still allowing the third most passing yards per game (263.0).
Now the Vikings face Jared Goff, who is leading the NFL with an absurd 76.3% completion percentage, which would easily be an NFL record. Goff is also leading the league with an equally absurd 9.6 yards per attempt and passer rating (112.7).
Nothing suggests that Goff will cool down from his hot start to the season. But this should be a close game. In lieu of the Lions’ money line, Detroit to win by fewer than 14 points at more favorable odds provides the better value.
Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 24