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NFL win totals 2024: Bettors favor Broncos, doubt Patriots and Vikings
Bettors at DraftKings appear to have strong opinions on the Broncos, Patriots and Vikings
The NFL betting market for the 2024 season opened for business at most sportsbooks before the NFL Draft commenced in late April. Since then, there’s been a flurry of wagering action on win totals, which essentially asks bettors to answer a simple, two-part question:
Which teams will exceed expectations during the 2024-25 season, and which will fall short of preseason projections?
With two weeks to go until the season kicks off, a clear consensus has formed around both sides of that question at one popular U.S.-based sportsbook.
NFL win totals: Bettors have buy sign on Broncos
Back in February 2016, the Denver Broncos claimed the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in franchise history when they throttled the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
Shortly after that triumph, quarterback Peyton Manning hung up his helmet for good. It’s been all downhill for the Broncos since. A quick summation of Denver’s ensuing eight seasons: five different head coaching hires; six different passing leaders; six different rushing leaders; one winning record (followed by seven straight losing seasons and counting); and zero playoff appearances.
No, not zero playoff wins; zero playoff appearances.
So it’s no surprise that, when NFL win totals were first posted at DraftKings in late March, the Broncos were hanging out at the bottom of the barrel. Their opening win total of 5.5 was tied with the Carolina Panthers for second-lowest among the NFL’s 32 franchises. The only team below Denver and Carolina in the NFL win totals pecking order: New England at 4.5.
Well, it turns out that just because DraftKings’ oddsmakers aren’t high on the 2024-25 Broncos, it doesn’t mean bettors feel the same way. Denver might be hanging out in the NFL win totals outhouse at DraftKings, but when it comes to wagering action, it is sitting in the penthouse.
Ignoring those eight consecutive seasons of sub-.500 futility — and that rookie quarterback Bo Nix will be under center for the Broncos in Week 1 — DraftKings has taken more bets on Broncos Over 5.5 wins than any other win total option. As of Aug. 20, that particular prop bet had odds of -130 (as opposed to +110 on Broncos Under 5.5 wins).
What’s more: DraftKings lets customers wager on alternate win totals for every team, with the associated odds adjusting based on whether the win total slides up or down.
Guess what the most-best alternate win total is at DraftKings (and the fourth most-bet total overall)? Yep, Broncos Over 6.5 wins (+150).
NFL win totals: Will it be another long, cold winter in New England?
One likely reason that DraftKings bettors are high on Denver: The team came on strong at the end of coach Sean Payton’s first season, closing 7-4 after starting 1-5 (including a ghastly 70-20 loss at Miami in Week 3).
Also, even though the Broncos are in the midst of an eight-year postseason drought, they did record at least six victories in five of those years (and never finished with fewer than five wins).
That’s more than the once-mighty New England Patriots can say. Last season, the Patriots put a rubber stamp on Bill Belichick’s 24-year reign as head coach with a 4-13 record. Only the Panthers (2-15) were worse.
Not only was it New England’s third losing season in the past four years (which followed 17 consecutive double-digit win campaigns), but it was the franchise’s worst effort since the 1992 squad went 2-14.
Is there reason to be optimistic that the six-time Super Bowl champs hit rock bottom last season and are ready to swim back to the surface under first-year coach Jerod Mayo? Not if you believe bettors at DraftKings, where Patriots Under 4.5 is the second most-bet win total behind Broncos Over 5.5.
Not only that, but the alternate total of Patriots Under 5.5 has generated the fifth-most win total action at DraftKings (despite hefty current odds of -200).
The fact that NFL bettors have soured on New England so dramatically is understandable, given how quickly the franchise fell off a cliff once legendary quarterback Tom Brady departed. But it’s also unfathomable from this perspective: Prior to last season, the Patriots hadn’t lost more than seven games since Belichick’s first team went 5-11 in 2000.
Also, last year’s win total projection of 7.5 was New England’s lowest since Brady’s rookie season in 2001 (6.5) — and second lowest since oddsmakers posted a total of 4 in 1991.
NFL win totals: Strong opinion forms around Vikings
With Denver ranking first (Over 5.5) and fourth (Over 6.5) when it comes to most-bet win totals at DraftKings, and New England positioned second (Under 4.5) and fifth (Under 5.5), you’re probably wondering: Which team is in the middle?
Answer: the Minnesota Vikings.
Even though they have won at least seven games in 10 consecutive seasons, the Vikings’ consensus win total heading into the 2024-25 campaign is just 6.5. And needless to say, DraftKings bettors have as much faith in Minnesota exceeding expectations as they do New England.
That’s because Vikings Under 6.5 has been the third-most-popular win total wager at DraftKings — although, somewhat interestingly, the odds on this prop are shaded more toward Over 6.5 (-140) than Under 6.5 (+120).
Why might bettors be down on Minnesota this year? Two reasons: Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Vikings’ preseason opener. As a result, the starting job falls to the player McCarthy was expected to challenge: former No. 1 overall pick Sam Darnold.
Also, Minnesota is stuck in the NFC North, which is expected to be one of the league’s toughest divisions.
Does this mean the Vikings are a lock to do something they haven’t once done in the past decade (finish in last place)? Nope.
Likewise, regardless of the lopsided action that DraftKings has taken, there are no guarantees that the Broncos will soar over their win total, or the Patriots will fall short of theirs.
This, after all, is why they play the games.
Here is a look at the most-bet NFL win totals for the 2024 season, along with splits:
- DEN Over 5.5 Wins
92% of handle; 66% of bets - NE Under 4.5 Wins
48% of handle; 55% of bets - MIN Under 6.5 Wins
47% of handle; 57% of bets - DEN Over 6.5 Wins
93% of handle; 53% of bets - NE Under 5.5 Wins
50% of handle; 52% of bets