NFL picks & predictions: Best quarterback props for Week 10

Will Justin Herbert throw a bomb against Tennessee? Can Josh Allen do damage with his legs at Indianapolis?

The majority of weekly NFL betting action has always involved wagers on point spreads, money lines and totals.

In recent years, though, sportsbooks across the United States have seen a major uptick in prop wagering — that is, bets tied to player performance and/or game outcomes that have nothing to do with the final score.

Not surprisingly, the most popular prop betting market relates to the NFL’s most popular position: quarterback.

Also not surprisingly, there are myriad options for wagering on quarterback props — everything from touchdowns and interceptions to total passing yards and longest pass completion.

With a slew of the NFL’s top passers buckling their chin straps this week, here are the five best quarterback props for Week 10, complete with optimum betting odds from the best sportsbooks. 

Josh Allen: Under 25.5 total rushing yards

In addition to the howitzer attached to his right shoulder, Buffalo’s Josh Allen has done serious damage with his legs throughout his seven-year NFL career. Allen rushed for more than 500 yards in five of his first six seasons — and the one time he didn’t, in 2020, he scampered for 421 yards.

This year has brought more of the same, with Allen compiling 211 rushing yards on just 47 carries in nine games. However, more than half that total — 137 yards — was accumulated against three opponents. Allen had 39 rushing yards in Week 1 against Arizona; 44 in Week 3 against Jacksonville; and 54 in Week 5 at Houston.

Since establishing that season high against the Texans, Allen has produced rushing totals of 18, 1, 25, and 7 yards. He failed to beat his rushing prop in any of those contests.

As for this week’s matchup against the Colts, it certainly seems to favor Allen and his legs. Indianapolis is surrendering the second-most rushing yards in the league (149.8 per game).Back in Week 4, Steelers quarterback Justin Fields gashed the Colts for 55 rushing yards on just 10 carries. That was two weeks after Packers backup quarterback Malik Willis sprinted for 41 yards on six carries.

However, among the other seven QBs the Colts have played, none have topped 20 rushing yards. That includes fleet-footed Bears rookie Caleb Williams, who had 8 yards on his only carry in Week 3.

Best odds: -110, bet365

Jayden Daniels: Over 0.5 total interceptions

Forget about the 1,945 passing yards, 459 rushing yards, 71.5% completion rate, 106.7 quarterback rating, and 13 combined rushing and passing touchdowns. The most impressive aspect of Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels’ season (and a huge reason why his team is 7-2)? Ball security.

Daniels has just two interceptions in 228 pass attempts. And while he’s put the ball on the ground three times, he hasn’t lost a single fumble. 

The precocious rookie’s ability to protect the pigskin has been impressive. It’s also been a bit lucky. Two of the opponents Daniels has faced — Cleveland and the New York Giants — have combined for only two interceptions. (Ironically, the Browns’ pick came courtesy of Daniels.) As for Washington’s other seven opponents, none have recorded more than seven interceptions.

This week? Daniels and the Commanders have to deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose 10 interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the NFL (and just three behind league-leader Minnesota).

The Steelers have at least one interception in six of their eight games, including the last four in a row. Also, they’ve picked off four different veteran quarterbacks — not once, but twice. Those QBs: Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones.

Best odds: -105, BetMGM

Patrick Mahomes: Over 1.5 total touchdown passes

Through their first seven games, the Denver Broncos allowed just five passing touchdowns, and no more than one in any contest. Since then? It’s been a different story. In fact, the Broncos’ last two opponents — Carolina and Baltimore — tossed as many touchdowns as the first seven.

Much-maligned Panthers quarterback Bryce Young delivered both of his team’s scores at Denver two weeks ago. Then last week, Ravens quarterback and two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson had three passing TDs.

Now the Denver defense has to go back on the road and deal with another two-time MVP: old AFC West nemesis Patrick Mahomes. Making the situation even more tenuous for Denver? The Chiefs’ quarterback is heating up.

After throwing just one touchdown in a three-game stretch against the Chargers, Saints and 49ers, Mahomes has picked up five in the past two weeks. He had two against the Raiders in Week 8, then matched Jackson’s trifecta Monday night against Tampa Bay.

It’s no coincidence that Mahomes has found his groove since his team acquired veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins prior to the game against the Raiders.

Hopkins, who caught two of Mahomes’ scoring throws against the Buccaneers, is a huge addition because Kansas City lost top receiver Rashee Rice to a season-ending injury in Week 4. Moreover, Hollywood Brown, who signed with the Chiefs in the offseason, has yet to take a snap this year as he continues to languish on injured reserve.

With and without Hopkins, Rice, and Brown, Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last seven games.

He also did it in five of nine games against the Broncos from 2018-22 before being held to one touchdown pass in two meetings last season.

Best odds: +100, FanDuel Sportsbook

Justin Herbert: Longest pass completion Under 34.5 yards

It’s already been a very long season for the Tennessee Titans. Their only victories came against opponents who are a combined 4-13 and whose quarterbacks were a rookie (New England’s Drake Maye) and a recently signed third-stringer (Miami’s Tyler Huntley).

Also, they have scored the sixth-fewest points in the league and allowed the sixth-most.

The one thing Tennessee has done well (very well)? Defend the pass. 

Yes, the Titans have allowed a dozen touchdowns through the air, but they’re limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 155.8 passing yards per game and 5.97 yards per pass attempt. No team has done better in either category.

Sure, it helps that those opposing quarterbacks have included Maye, Huntley, another rookie (the Bears’ Caleb Williams in his NFL debut) and another backup (Green Bay’s Malik Willis). However, Tennessee’s defense also has gone up against veterans Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Josh Allen and Joe Flacco.

Of those eight quarterbacks, only two have completed a pass longer than 26 yards against the Titans. Willis had a 37-yard strike, and Allen connected for a 57-yard bomb.

The Chargers’ Justin Herbert will look to add his name to that short list Sunday when Tennessee visits Los Angeles. And judging by Herbert’s longest completion projection of 34.5 yards, oddsmakers believe he’s got a good chance to do it.

That belief is well-rooted, considering Herbert has cashed the Over on this prop in five consecutive weeks. What’s more, he’s done it with completions that have gotten longer each week: 37, 38, 41, 60, and 66 yards.

It should be noted, though, that only one of Herbert’s opponents during this six-game stretch currently has a top-10 pass defense (Denver, which is sixth). It also should be noted that Herbert didn’t complete a pass longer than 29 yards in any of his first three games — including against the lowly Panthers.

Best odds: -110, bet365

Jared Goff: Under 223.5 total passing yards

The Detroit Lions have the NFL’s second-best record (7-1) and second-best Super Bowl odds for many reasons. Perhaps the biggest is the play of quarterback Jared Goff.

The MVP candidate is completing a mind-boggling 75% of his passes, which leads the league. He’s thrown 10 more touchdowns (14) than interceptions (four). And his average of 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 115.0 quarterback rating rank second in the league.

However, Goff has thrown for more than 223 yards in just half of Detroit’s eight games. And not once has he done it against an opponent that ranks higher than 18th in pass defense.

This week, Goff heads to Houston for a Sunday Night Football clash with the Texans, who field the NFL’s third-best pass defense. Not only is Houston giving up a measly 167.4 aerial yards per contest, but only one opposing quarterback has topped 220 yards. That quarterback: Patriots rookie Drake Maye, who had 243 yards in his first NFL start on Oct. 13 (with 132 of those yards coming after New England was trailing 27-7 en route to a 41-21 defeat).

Goff has been held below 200 passing yards in three of his last six outings. That includes back-to-back games of 145 yards at Green Bay last week and 85 against Tennessee, which leads the NFL in passing yards allowed.

Meanwhile, none of the four quarterbacks who have played the Texans in their house have thrown for more than 175 yards. That includes another MVP candidate: Buffalo’s Josh Allen had a season-low 131 yards in his Week 5 visit to Houston.

Best odds: -110, bet365