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Giants vs Steelers: MNF game preview, best bet and odds
Get the latest betting odds and best bet recommendations for the Giants vs. Steelers Monday Night Football
| WHO | New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers |
| WHEN | Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Acrisure Stadium | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| HOW | ESPN, ABC |
The New York Giants take on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week on Monday Night Football. The Steelers (5-2) get the spotlight of a primetime game for the second week in a row after their convincing victory over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.
Russell Wilson made his Steelers debut in that game and made coach Mike Tomlin look smart for inserting him into the starting lineup despite Justin Fields leading the team to a 4-2 start. Wilson threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns while adding a third score on the ground. Whether he can build on that solid performance in his second start will be a big storyline to watch in this game.
The Giants (2-5) suffered their worst loss of the season last week, a 28-3 drubbing at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. Even with star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers returning from his concussion, the offense could not get anything going, and Nabers finished with his worst statistical output of the season (four catches for 41 yards). New York is looking to bounce back with a better performance this week despite a very tough matchup against the Steelers’ defense.
Here are the current betting odds for Giants vs. Steelers at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article but are subject to change.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants spread | +5.5 (-105) | +6 (-112) | +6 (-110) |
| Steelers spread | -5.5 (-115) | -6 (-108) | -6 (-110) |
| Giants moneyline | +220 | +195 | +215 |
| Steelers moneyline | -270 | -238 | -267 |
| Over | Over 36.5 (-108) | Over 36.5 (-108) | Over 36.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 36.5 (-112) | Under 36.5 (-112) | Under 36.5 (-110) |
Why to bet on the Giants
The Giants’ biggest advantage in this game is the way their defensive line matches up with the Steelers’ offensive line. As Mike Tomlin noted in his mid-week press conference, Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is “a problem” in both the run game and the passing game. It’s worth noting that Lawrence is dealing with a hip injury and missed the Giants’ first practice of the week, but as of this writing he is expected to play.
Lawrence has been the most dominant defensive player in the league this season. He leads the league in sacks with nine (9) and has odds as low as +300 at DraftKings to win Defensive Player of the Year. (The Steelers’ T.J. Watt is the favorite at +130.) Lawrence commands so much attention on the interior that it creates more opportunities for the Giants’ edge rushers as well.
The Giants lead the league with 31 sacks despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of blitz rate (26.3% of opponent dropbacks, the 14th highest rate in the league). That’s because the defensive line consistently wins its pass rush snaps and generates sacks and pressures. New York’s defensive line leads the league in adjusted sack rate, while the defense as a whole is seventh in pass rush win rate.
The Steelers could struggle to slow down the Giants’ pass rush given their plethora of injuries on the offensive line. Arguably their two best offensive linemen – James Daniels and Troy Fautanu – are out for the season, and top backups Nate Herbig and Dylan Cook are also on IR. Rookie center Zach Frazier also missed the last game with an ankle injury and remains questionable to return this week, so Pittsburgh could be down three starters up front.
With all those injuries, Pittsburgh is struggling to protect the passer. It is 22nd in adjusted sack rate and 23rd in pass block win rate. If the Giants can exploit the major advantage they have on this side of the line of scrimmage, that could have a dramatic impact on this game. Few things can swing a matchup more than a dominant pass rush, and if New York can wreak havoc up front, it would have a great opportunity to keep this game close enough to cover the spread or potentially pull off an upset.
Why to bet on the Steelers
The Steelers once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that unit is the biggest reason why they are three games above .500 and trending towards yet another winning season. Their defense has been simply dominant this season, especially against the run, where they are holding opponents to just 81.0 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Both of those marks are No. 2 in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is also third in both DVOA and EPA and fifth in success rate against the run.
With that dominant run defense, Pittsburgh can quickly force the Giants to become one-dimensional. New York has struggled to run the ball this season, ranking just 25th in rushing offense (101.9 yards per game) and 29th in yards per carry (3.9). It’s unlikely the Giants will improve on those numbers in this matchup, so it will be up to Daniel Jones to make plays with his arm.
That’s a favorable situation for Pittsburgh’s defense. It may not have the pass rush production that the Giants have this season, but the Steelers still have DPOY favorite T.J. Watt, and the Giants just lost their top offensive lineman in left tackle Andrew Thomas. Expect Pittsburgh to line up Watt on that side of the ball to exploit Thomas’ backup, Josh Ezeudu, who surrendered two sacks last week and forced the Giants to change their protections to give him help from the tight end on his side.
New York has only scored 10 points in its last two games against the Bengals and Eagles, and the Steelers’ defense poses a much more formidable threat than those previous opponents.
Best bet for Giants vs. Steelers: Steelers -6 (-108, DraftKings)
The Giants have a puncher’s chance in this game if their pass rush can dominate the Steelers’ banged up offensive line, but that’s not enough of a reason to take the points in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s defense is too good to expect New York to be able to do much offensively, and the Steelers offense is starting to figure things out. They have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games, and Russell Wilson can bring more of a vertical element to the passing game.
Another big factor in this game is turnovers. Pittsburgh leads the league in EPA off of turnovers, while New York is 20th in that category. The Steelers’ defense has forced 13 takeaways this season, tied for third most in the league, while the offense has committed just four turnovers, tied for the third-fewest. Dominant defense and winning the turnover battle is a winning formula, and it will lead to a comfortable Steelers win this week.