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Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia: Game preview and best bet
Will we see a big upset in this classic rivalry game?
| Who | Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs |
| When | Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Where | EverBank Stadium | Jacksonville, Florida |
| How to watch | ABC |
So far, Billy Napier’s Florida Gators (4-3, 2-2 SEC) have done a nice job after being dealt a very tough hand this season. This squad has been tasked with navigating arguably the nation’s hardest schedule, and they currently own a respectable 4-3 record after a very impressive win over Kentucky. The question is whether they have any wins left on the schedule, with a closing slate you need to see to believe.
Florida’s next four games are all against ranked teams, including No. 6 Texas, No. 16 LSU, No. 19 Ole Miss, and this week, No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC). The Bulldogs have been dominant in the SEC throughout the past few years , as they haven’t lost to anyone other than Alabama since the start of the 2021 season. However, cracks in their armor are beginning to show, namely in another loss to ‘Bama and a close call against the same Kentucky team that Florida obliterated.
Nonetheless, the Bulldogs are riding high after a tremendous 30-15 road win over Texas, the top-ranked team in the country before that loss. The team’s talent is coming together, but there are still questions about starting quarterback Carson Beck.
Georgia’s second-year starter came into the year viewed as a contender for honors like the Heisman Trophy and the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but even in the win against Texas, he threw three interceptions and did not account for a touchdown. Many fans and pundits have begun to wonder out loud whether he’ll ever play at the level his talent suggests he can.
With both teams coming off of their best performances of the season, this installment of the classic SEC rivalry could be more interesting than previously anticipated. Georgia is still favored by more than two touchdowns at most major sportsbooks including FanDuel and DraftKings, but let’s take a look at the odds and select a best bet.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Fanatics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida spread | +16.5 (-110) | +16.5 (-110) | +16.5 (-110) |
| Georgia spread | -16.5 (-110) | -16.5 (-110) | -16.5 (-110) |
| Florida moneyline | +580 | +525 | +550 |
| Georgia moneyline | -880 | -750 | -800 |
| Over | Over 52.5 (-105) | Over 52 (-112) | Over 52 (-110) |
| Under | Under 52.5 (-115) | Under 52 (-108) | Under 52 (-110) |
Why bet on the Florida Gators
This rivalry game is played at a “neutral” site, but it’s still South of the Florida-Georgia line. Gainesville is just over an hour’s drive from Jacksonville, while Athens, Georgia is around five and a half hours away from the venue, giving Gators fans a better chance to get to the game.
Outside of that, Florida’s biggest edge might be a mental one. Georgia could very well be looking ahead to their own challenging close-out schedule, with a road trip to Ole Miss and then a home matchup with Tennessee in the immediate future after this game. The Bulldogs might have their minds on bigger goals, but the Gators don’t have higher aspirations than knocking their rivals down a peg and moving closer to bowl eligibility.
Against the pass, Florida’s defense ranks 24th in defensive success rate and 34th in EPA. If Beck plays the way he did against Texas, he could struggle against a toothy Gators pass defense.
On the other side of the football, Georgia’s defense is more vulnerable now than we’ve seen in recent seasons. In addition to the shootout loss to Alabama, in which the unit surrendered 41 points, they also let Mississippi State hang around by scoring 31 points in Athens. They’re 36th in the country in EPA per play, a solid but not elite figure.
Why bet on the Georgia Bulldogs
Theoretically, Florida should not be able to move the ball on Georgia’s defense, even if it’s not quite as consistent as units from years past. The Bulldogs are a top-25 defense by metrics like success rate against the pass and on late downs. The unit is littered with NFL talent like safety Malaki Starks, edge-rusher Mykel Williams and linebacker Jalon Walker.
Starks has already recorded three tackles for loss and an interception this season, earning a PFF defensive grade of 80.0 in the process. Williams has recorded five tackles for loss and two sacks, while Walker has tallied impressive marks of 5.5 and 4.5 in those categories, respectively.
Florida’s offense has not been much of a strength, by contrast. True freshman DJ Lagway will be starting this game at quarterback, and while he has shown plenty of promise and upside, he’s a very raw product. Outside of a win over FCS Samford, Lagway has thrown for just two touchdowns compared to five interceptions and has yet to score a ground touchdown.
He’s completing 62.8% of his passes, but that number falls to 56.9% when whittling his production down to just games against SEC opposition. Simply put, you can’t win if you don’t score, and Georgia has the ability to keep Florida off of the scoreboard entirely if the Gators do anything other than play their best possible game.
Best bet on Florida vs. Georgia
Under 52.5 (-115, FanDuel)
The spread is set at a relatively awkward number, making it very easy to imagine Florida losing by a margin of two touchdowns on the dot, managing a backdoor cover in the process. Instead, let’s focus on the over/under when betting this game.
Georgia is in something of a letdown position after a tremendous win against Texas, and could also be caught looking ahead to Ole Miss and Tennessee. It has the makings of a trap game. This should be an intense rivalry game characterized by defense and hard-fought drives, as these clashes between longtime foes so often are.