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Commanders vs. Eagles on Thursday Week 11: Game preview and best bet
NFC East foes square off with first place in the division on the line
| WHO | Commanders at Eagles |
| WHEN | Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia |
| WATCH | Amazon Prime Video |
The Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3) are in a tight race at the top of the NFC East. The longtime rivals will square off for the first time this season on Thursday Night Football in Week 11, and the winner will take control of first place in the division.
Since their bye in Week 5, the Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 5-0 with the second-best point differential (+82) over that span. (The Lions are +91.) Defense has been the biggest reason for Philadelphia’s surge. The Eagles are leading the league (by a decent margin) in several key metrics, including points allowed per game (13.0), yards allowed (200.8), and EPA per play. The biggest knock against them is that they have played five teams with losing records, so this game will be a much bigger test.
No team has exceeded expectations so far this season more than the Commanders, who have already surpassed their preseason win total prop of 6.5 wins. Barring injury, rookie sensation Jayden Daniels has essentially locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award with odds as short as -3000 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. He has even entered the MVP conversation with the fifth-best odds (+1400) at both FanDuel and bet365.
The Eagles have a small rest advantage for this game after blowing out the Cowboys 34-6 last week and resting many of their starters for most of the fourth quarter. On the other hand, the Commanders are coming off of a physical, down-to-the-wire game against Pittsburgh, which they lost 28-27.
Can the Commanders bounce back with a huge win on the road to reclaim the division lead? Here are the current betting odds for this pivotal primetime game at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article but are always subject to change.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders spread | +3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Eagles spread | -3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-115) |
| Commanders money line | +160 | +160 | +162 |
| Eagles money line | -190 | -192 | -195 |
| Over | Over 48.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-112) | Over 48.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-108) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Why the Commanders can cover
In what should be a tight, hard-fought battle between two excellent teams, taking the team getting 3.5 points is often a good strategy. This game could easily go either way, and the Commanders could win the game outright, so taking the points in that scenario is a solid bet.
The lookahead line in this game was Eagles -3 and moved to -3.5 after the Eagles trounced the Cowboys and the Commanders lost to the Steelers. That could be a slight overreaction to those two outcomes, and getting the hook on a key number makes betting on the Commanders much more appealing.
The Commanders offense will pose the biggest threat this season for the surging Eagles defense. Philadelphia has faced three offenses that are top 12 in both DVOA and EPA: the Packers, Buccaneers and Bengals. The Packers and Bucs scored 29 and 33 points, respectively, against them. Granted, both of those games were before the Eagles’ post-bye week surge, and more recently the Bengals only scored 17 against them in Week 8 (albeit without Tee Higgins).
Washington’s offense is better than the offenses of those three teams. The Commanders are second in both DVOA and EPA and fourth in both points per game (29.0) and yards per game (377.0). Last week, Daniels had easily his worst game of the season against the Steelers. Excluding the one game he left early because of injury, Daniels had his second-fewest passing yards in a game (202) and his lowest marks in completion percentage (50.0), net yards per pass attempt (4.92), passer rating (68.5), QBR (36.2) and rushing yards (four).
Despite Daniels’ shaky performance, the Commanders still scored 27 points against the league’s second-best scoring defense (16.2 points per game) and a top 10 defense by DVOA (10th), EPA (seventh), and success rate (10th). They were also missing Robinson (hamstring), the team’s No. 1 back who has a chance to return this week.
The Eagles defense may not be nearly as good as its recent performance against bad offenses would suggest, and Daniels should be able to bounce back with a much better game this week. If that happens, the Commanders have a good shot to win this game outright, let alone covering the spread.
Why the Eagles can cover
While the Eagles have faced some easier competition during their current five-game winning streak, they have also looked dominant during most of that stretch. The defense has held opposing offenses to fewer than 300 total yards in all five games, including two games under 150. Philadelphia has also kept opposing offenses out of the end zone in three of those games. The Eagles’ 10 takeaways in the last three games is the best in the league over that stretch.
Though questioning the competition is fair, the Eagles have dominated that competition. If not for a few shaky performances early in the season, Philadelphia’s seasonlong numbers would look even better than they do.
The Eagles’ most advantageous matchup in this game is their rushing attack with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts against the Commanders’ struggling run defense. Washington is 26th in DVOA, 27th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate against the run this season. The Commanders are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (142.7) and third-most yards per carry (4.9). The Eagles’ ground game is fourth in DVOA, fifth in EPA and eighth in success rate. They are gaining the second-most rushing yards per game (176.1) and the sixth-most yards per carry (4.9).
If the Eagles can run the ball effectively against Washington, their offense is going to be very hard to stop. Not only does that keep the offense on schedule, it also allows Philadelphia to dominate time of possession. In a short week in which both teams have less time to recover than normal, that could be an even bigger advantage.
The Eagles also have a slight advantage because they were able to rest some of their key players during most of the fourth quarter of last week’s blowout. That is especially important for Barkley, who is on pace for a career-high 362 touches this season. He had his second-lowest workload of the season last week with just 15 touches and should be fresh for this game.
Best bet for Commanders vs. Eagles: Eagles -3.5 (-105, FanDuel)
While the Eagles’ recent dominance could be discounted based on the level of competition, so could most of the Commanders’ season. Washington has played just three teams with winning records (Cardinals, Ravens and Steelers) and is 1-2 in those games both straight up and against the spread.
The Commanders were lauded for their thrilling Hail Mary victory over Chicago three weeks ago, but they also needed that miracle play to win a home game against a Bears team that since that moment has lost to the Cardinals and Patriots by a combined score of 48-12. If not for that one miraculous ending, the Commanders’ season would be looking much different right now, and they would likely be bigger underdogs in this game.
The Eagles are arguably the hottest team in the league right now, and they will keep it rolling this week while taking a commanding lead in the NFC East.