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Bears vs Commanders: Game preview and best bet
See how oddsmakers are handicapping this NFC contest between the top two 2024 NFL draft picks
| WHO | Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 4:25 p.m. EST |
| WHERE | Northwest Stadium | Landover, Maryland |
| HOW | CBS |
It was billed as the matchup featuring the first two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft and the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels have shown why they were chosen to quarterback their respective teams, as each have winning records and playoff aspirations. They are also the clear favorites on the board for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Daniels at -145 and Williams +115 on DraftKings.
However, the hype is tempered. Daniels played one possession in Week 7 before leaving with a rib injury. Marcus Mariota and the rest of the Commanders had little trouble defeating the Carolina Panthers at home, compiling 421 yards of total offense and getting a Dante Fowler interception returned for a touchdown in a 40-7 rout. Mariota filled in for the rookie QB with 205 passing yards and two scores. Washington is atop the NFC East at 5-2, but now Daniels is considered “week-to-week.”
Nonetheless, Washington has become quickly enamored with its newly-minted franchise quarterback. And the Bears may have found theirs. Williams experienced a steep learning curve early on in the season as he struggled to connect with his receivers. But there’s been marked improvement in his performance lately. Facing the Jaguars in London, Williams shook off a first-half interception to throw for 226 yards and four touchdowns – the first rookie to toss that many TDs in 25 years – and completed at least two passes to five different receivers. The Bears are now 4-2 in a tough NFC North and coming off their bye week.
Here are some of the most recent odds that you can find at some of the top online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears spread | -2.5 (-110) | -3 (-102) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Commanders spread | +2.5 (-110) | +3 (-118) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Bears moneyline | -138 | -148 | -145 |
| Commanders moneyline | +118 | +124 | +120 |
| Over | Over 43.5 (-105) | Over 43.5 (-105) | Over 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 43.5 (-115) | Under 43.5 (-115) | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Why to bet on the Bears
The progression of their rookie quarterback is giving Chicago plenty of hope. Williams failed to exceed 100 yards passing in his debut, then threw for a pair of interceptions in each of his next two outings. But the last two weeks against Carolina and Jacksonville have been promising.
The connection of Williams and DJ Moore devastated the Panthers. A 304-yard passing day included two TDs to his 27-year-old wide out who wound up with 105 receiving yards in a 36-10 domination.
Williams’ stat sheet only looked better the next Sunday and the Jaguars were worse off for it. This time, the primary targets were tight end Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen – who each caught a pair of touchdowns. Williams displayed tremendous poise in piloting an 85-yard, 10 play drive late in the first half that included quarterback scrambles of 23 and 19 yards.
Now with a week off to prepare, the Commanders present a good defense to continue this trend. Granted, Washington has improved in this area after being torched in the opening game by Tampa Bay and again in a shootout victory in Cincinnati. But it is still nowhere near to the level of the elite.
As for Chicago’s D, depending on how things pan out, a game in which it’s facing a quarterback that doesn’t possess the elusiveness of Daniels certainly improves its chances. Mariota won’t take off and run as much. Even if Daniels is able to play, there’s a question as to how effective he will be throwing and passing. The Bears are also among the league’s best in turnover margin at +6. Only the Bills and Steelers are better in this category.
Why to bet on the Commanders
Just as the Bears are capable of winning if Daniels is in the lineup, the Commanders can do the same without him – provided that Mariota manages the offense and the defense can force Williams into mistakes.
As good as Chicago has been in turnover margin, Washington has fumbled the ball away just once. Establishing the run behind Brian Robinson Jr will help control the ball. Washington has 1,158 yards on the ground through seven games. That 165.4 yard average is good for third-best in the NFL. A lot of that yardage came courtesy of Daniels. However, Robinson has produced 396 yards and scored six times while backup Austin Ekeler is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and Jeremy McNichols is running at a clip of 6.6 per attempt.
Mariota doesn’t have dynamic play-making ability like Daniels, but has a dynamic wide receiver in Terry McLaurin – who caught two TDs against the Ravens, has gone for at least 100 receiving yards twice and nearly eclipsed the century mark last Sunday. If Daniels is healthy enough to start and be close to what we’ve seen, then the chances for success grow larger.
Defensively, pressure will be a key. The Bears are in the top half of all teams in allowing quarterback sacks and Washington is among the top half of all teams in recording quarterback sacks. Williams has already been brought down 20 times (tied for third-most) and Washington has a pair of linebackers – Frankie Luvu and Dante Fowler Jr. – who have four and 4.5 sacks, respectively.
Best bet for Bears vs. Commanders: Over 43.5 Total Points (-105, FanDuel)
The great unknown of Jayden Daniels’ status looms over this game. That would make siding with one team quite the challenge, especially as the line has shifted. Determining how the scoring will sort out has somewhat less variance. The point total has not yet had the public go one way or the other, giving it nearly even odds to take the over.
Despite the performance coming against woeful Carolina, there is belief that the system of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury can still generate yards and eventually points. Daniels has certainly been key to their success, but many others have contributed to a group that has accounted for 31.1 points per game – a league-best average the Commanders share with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a bye and are relatively healthy. Their recent competition may not be as strong either – sharing the Panthers as a common opponent – but scoring 36 and 35 points is a sign of headway no matter what. Washington’s defense is better, but not among the best. Each offense has the advantage over who it’s facing on the other side of the ball.