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Best bets and game preview for Broncos vs. Saints on Thursday Night Football
See how oddsmakers are handicapping this Thursday night matchup
| WHO | Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints |
| WHEN | Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Caesars Superdome | New Orleans, Louisiana |
| HOW | Amazon Prime Video |
For the Saints, Week 2 in Dallas feels like years ago. They were fresh off a 47-point afternoon against the Carolina Panthers. Derek Carr looked like an All-Pro and New Orleans’ offense looked like a juggernaut. Fast-forward a month: Carr is injured, Chris Olave is injured, and the Saints allowed 51 points to Tampa Bay in their fourth-straight defeat.
While Spencer Rattler had a decent showing in his NFL debut on Sunday – throwing for 243 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions – it was not enough to keep pace with the Bucs, who gashed the New Orleans defense in every way possible: 317 passing yards, 277 rushing yards.
The Broncos were riding a three-game win streak before it was snapped in a Week 6 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Denver’s own rookie QB, Bo Nix, went for 216 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and an interception along with 61 rushing yards. Denver dug itself a 23-0 deficit in the fourth quarter before the offense showed some life. The defense, which has been its strength this year, suffered a setback when cornerback Patrick Surtain II left with a concussion. At 3-3, the Broncos are very much in the playoff discussion in the AFC, while the 2-4 Saints are trending downward.
Here are some of the odds that you can find at some of the top online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos spread | -1.5 (-115) | -1 (-110) | -1 (-110) |
| Saints spread | +1.5 (-105) | +1 (-110) | +1 (-110) |
| Broncos moneyline | -102 | -102 | +100 |
| Saints moneyline | -116 | -118 | -120 |
| Over | Over 37.5 (-105) | Over 37.5 (-108) | Over 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 37.5 (-115) | Under 37.5 (-112) | Under 37.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Broncos
If the Denver of the second half last week against Los Angeles and the New Orleans of the second half last week against Tampa Bay show up this Sunday, the Broncos are well-positioned to get back in the win column.
It was too little too late, but Nix and the offense showed signs of promise – including connecting with fellow first-year man Devaughn Vele for 78 yards. The Saints let a close one at halftime unravel over the final two quarters. Not only were they shut out with Rattler being sacked four times and throwing two picks, but the defense let up 305 yards and 27 points.
This could be the ideal situation for Nix to establish his confidence. New Orleans has yielded an average of 262.2 yards through air. Only Jacksonville, Baltimore and Minnesota have allowed more. The Saints have also surrendered the second-most yards per play plus the eighth-highest EPA per play and highest EPA per rush during this four-game slide. Plus, Nix has only turned the ball over once during Denver’s 3-1 stretch.
Even if Surtain is not available to line up in the secondary, Rattler’s inexperience could be just what Denver is looking for. The Broncos are the league’s fifth-best in terms of defensive passing yardage.
Why bet on the Saints
It’s hard to imagine the New Orleans defense being much worse. Baker Mayfield’s aerial efforts resulted in a 325-yard afternoon with four touchdowns. Sean Tucker ran for 136 yards and a score. Bucky Irving added 81 on the ground and also found the end zone.
Bo Nix doesn’t have nearly the years of knowledge that Mayfield possesses and there is an opportunity to expose that greenness. Denver managed a mere 60 first-half yards on its home field versus Los Angeles. It also turned the ball over twice, which can play into the Saints’ hands. New Orleans has forced the fourth-most takeaways in the league – 11 of them via interception.
The Saints need Rattler to build on some of the positives that came from his initial start and shake off the negatives. If he does, he can lean on Alvin Kamara for handoffs or short passes. The eighth-year running back is among the NFL’s top five in carries (104) and rushing touchdowns (six) and the Broncos are relatively weaker in stopping the run at 114.2 yards per contest. With Taysom Hill likely to be out again, he can take up the bulk of short-yardage situations. Kamara also has at least five receptions in each of the past three games.
Best bet for Broncos vs. Saints: Over 37 total points (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
The Broncos at -1.5 is very close to being a pick ’em. And at -105 on FanDuel, there isn’t any real value. Taking them on the money line at -118 doesn’t produce much return on investment, either. Denver has its weaknesses and doesn’t have the home-field advantage.
One aspect of this game that feels a bit more tempting is the point total at Caesars Sportsbook; especially being in a climate-controlled environment like the Superdome.
Despite counting on a quarterback who was going through the feeling-out process of the NFL world and the absence of Chris Olave to aid the passing game, it still managed to tally 27 points against Tampa Bay. With no Surtain to worry about, that can open up the Saints’ options to move the ball. New Orleans can certainly be just as generous on the other side of the ball. It has played to the Over on the point total in four of six games, with those four going for more than 50 points.
Denver, meanwhile, has gone Over in each of the past two weeks. Its formula for success has been well-established: protecting the football and playing solid defense. There is reason to believe that will continue in this short turnaround. The Broncos have taken advantage of weaker defenses this year – the Raiders and Buccaneers, namely. They’ll also have the chance to get some takeaways against the rookie QB and provide Nix with a short field.