Best anytime touchdown scorer bets for Lions vs. Texans on SNF in Week 10

A trio of wide receivers are the best anytime TD scorer bets for this primetime matchup

The highlight of Week 10 in the NFL is the Sunday Night Football matchup between two first-place teams, the Detroit Lions (7-1) and Houston Texans (6-3). The Lions are the betting favorites at -3.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set on the high end at 49.5. 

Having lost two of their last three games, the Texans could use a big win over a tough opponent, but they might have to do it without two of their top players. Star wide receiver Nico Collins is eligible to return from injured reserve this week, but his 21-day practice window was not opened until Friday, and he is officially questionable. Dynamic edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is unlikely to play with an ankle injury.

Unlike the Texans, the Lions are adding some key players to the roster this week. Third-year WR Jameson Williams is returning from his two-game suspension, while edge rusher Za’Darius Smith has a chance to make his team debut after being acquired from the Cleveland Browns this week. 

This should be an exciting game in primetime that will generate plenty of attention from the online sports betting community. This article will cover the best anytime TD prop bets in this contest. The betting odds for each pick discussed below were the best at the time of publication, but it’s always worth double-checking the odds at all of the best online sportsbooks before placing any bets. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (+115, FanDuel)

The two players in this game most likely to score a touchdown for Detroit are running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs leads the team with eight TDs, while Montgomery is close behind with seven. Given how productive they both have been and that the Lions are the fifth-most run-heavy offense in the league with a 53.1% run play rate, both Gibbs and Montgomery typically are priced at less than even money to score a touchdown. This week, their best odds to score are both -125 at FanDuel.

Not only do those odds make it less appealing to bet on either player, but it’s also difficult to know which one to pick. At least one of those backs has recorded a touchdown in every game this season, but they have both scored in just four of the Lions’ contests. That makes it roughly a 50/50 chance that either one could score in this game, but given the odds, bettors are better off looking elsewhere than trying to pick the correct back on which to bet.

The next most likely Lions player to score a touchdown is star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is the best anytime TD bet in this game with his +115 odds. St. Brown is third on the team with six touchdowns and he has found the end zone in six consecutive games. He has a whopping 27.5% target share inside the red zone, and his 11 red-zone targets are tied for the seventh-most in the league. He has very consistent red-zone usage in the Lions’ offense, having earned a 23.9% target share in 2022 and a 30.8% share last season. 

This also should be a favorable matchup for St. Brown, at least when it comes to finding the end zone. The Texans have been one of the best defenses in the league this season against both the pass and the run, but one area in which they have struggled is the red zone. Their red-zone defense is 29th in the NFL, having allowed touchdowns on 69.6% of their opponent’s red-zone possessions. 

Houston has also allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, which is second-most in the league. By contrast, it has permitted just six TDs to opposing running backs, which is tied for ninth-fewest. That is another reason to like betting on St. Brown more than either Montgomery or Gibbs. With a solid matchup in what could be a high-scoring game, St. Brown is a good bet to score a touchdown for the seventh consecutive game. 

Jameson Williams (+250, BetMGM)

For similar reasons as St. Brown, Williams is another good anytime TD bet in this game, albeit with a bit more uncertainty. That comes from the fact that the Lions could take a more gradual approach to easing Williams back into the offense. He might not immediately return to the snap and target volumes he was seeing prior to his suspension. But he still is the second-most dangerous receiving weapon Detroit has, and if St. Brown has the potential to benefit from the Texans’ weakness against wideouts this season, then so does Williams.

Whereas St. Brown sees more usage in the red zone, Williams is more likely to score a touchdown on an explosive play, which is another area that the Texans’ defense can be exploited. Over the last four weeks, Houston is allowing explosive plays on 10.8% of its opponents’ plays, which is the ninth-highest rate in the league over that span. Williams has hit explosive pass plays in four of his six games this season and has three plays of 50 or more yards. He has a whopping 21.2 yards per reception and a team-high 33.1% air-yard share in the games he has played. 

Even if Williams has a more limited role this week, there is a good chance the Lions will take at least one deep shot to him, and that makes him worth a dart throw with +250 odds at BetMGM to score a touchdown.

Tank Dell (+155, DraftKings)

On the other side of this matchup, the uncertainty surrounding Collins’ status complicates picking a Texans TD scorer. Houston will not put Collins out there unless it is confident that he’s ready to go and has a minimal chance of aggravating his hamstring injury. If that’s the case, he should go back to being the No. 1 receiver in this offense. That means Dell’s limited time as the team’s top target would be over, and his +155 anytime TD odds at DraftKings would not look nearly as appealing.

However, all reports indicate Collins is a longshot to play, and several sportsbooks – including BetMGM and FanDuel – have him unlisted in their prop betting markets. Assuming he’s out, Dell should continue to benefit from his absence and become another good TD scorer bet in this game, and his current odds become more of a value.

Dell had his best game of the year last week, when he caught six passes for a season-high 126 yards against the New York Jets. He has scored touchdowns in two of the four contests Collins has missed, and he has earned a team-high nine red-zone targets and a 27.8% target share during that span. He is elite at creating separation, and the chemistry he showed with C.J. Stroud as a rookie has started to return over the last few weeks with both Collins and Stefon Diggs out of the lineup.

Just like the Texans’ defense, the Lions’ biggest vulnerability is against wide receivers. They are last in the league in both receptions (17.1) and yards (209.0) allowed per game to wideouts. Part of the reason for that is they have held big leads in so many games, leading opponents to target wide receivers more heavily, but it’s possible that could be the case again this week. 

It’s worth noting that Dell popped up on the injury report late in the week with a back injury and officially carries a questionable designation for this game, though recent reports indicate he is expected to suit up on Sunday night. Late-week additions to the injury report are never a good sign, and it could just be precautionary, but it’s worth monitoring.