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Best anytime touchdown bets for Packers vs. Bears in Week 11
Will the Bears new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown get Chicago back in the endzone?
| WHO | Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears |
| WHEN | Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Soldier Field | Chicago, Illinois |
| HOW | FOX |
The Green Bay Packers (6-3) look to maintain playoff position in the NFC Wild Card race when they face the plummeting Chicago Bears (4-5) on Sunday, with the point spread and over/under implying anytime touchdown bets may be harder to cash at sportsbooks…at least for one of these teams.
It’s always useful to consider projected scoring conditions for these potential NFL bets. In this Week 11 NFC North battle, Green Bay has an implied team total of 23 as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 40.5 at BetRivers. That means Chicago has an implied team total of 17.5.
Unlike games with totals lined in the 50s, a more conservative anytime touchdown betting strategy is prudent here. What also may not be fully accounted for in the odds this week is a new Bears offensive coordinator, cluster injuries on the Chicago offensive line, and Packers QB Jordan Love’s groin injury. Although, he has been fully practicing this week.
Frankly, Chicago’s offense is difficult to count on for touchdowns this week, having lost three games in a row and looking particularly inept in the past two against New England and Arizona, when they got outscored by a combined 48-12.
Maxing out at one anytime touchdown prop bet in this game is probably the best way to go, with a focus on the healthy Packers offense coming off the bye week, instead of a Bears offense that is currently allergic to the endzone. Chicago has not scored a touchdown since 25 seconds before giving up the Hail Mary to Washington in Week 8.
Below are two anytime touchdown picks, both from Green Bay, and perhaps the best values on the board this week. Included are the advanced statistics and tape study backing up those bets. Shop for the best odds available across the sports betting sites. Doing so is one of the easiest strategies to maximize chances of long-term profitability in sports betting.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers spread | -5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-112) | -5 (-110) |
| Bears spread | +5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-108) | +5 (-110) |
| Packers money line | -235 | -210 | -250 |
| Bears money line | +194 | +175 | +205 |
| Over | Over 40.5 (-110) | Over 40.5 (-112) | Over 40.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-108) | Under 40.5 (-110) |
Tucker Kraft (+280, FanDuel)
Which Packers pass catcher leads the team in red zone targets? It’s not wide receivers Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks. It’s tight end Tucker Kraft, as his spike in high-leverage opportunities coincides with fellow TE Luke Musgrave still being on injured reserve.
Yet, Kraft is being priced as the third-most likely Green Bay pass catcher to hit pay dirt. He has scored in three of the five games since Musgrave got hurt, playing more than 80% of snaps in each.
Meanwhile, Chicago is back healthy at cornerback with Jaylon Johnson leading a strong position group, but the Bears are shorthanded at safety with Jaquan Brisker (concussion) out again in Week 11. That could make Kraft tougher to slow down in coverage while the corners are busy against a deep Green Bay group of wideouts.
Kraft has also taken snaps from under center in short-yardage sneak/tush push situations this season, adding another out for a potential goal line touchdown.
Romeo Doubs (+240, DraftKings)
Remember Tyrique Stevenson? The Bears cornerback that was captured talking smack to Commanders fans seconds before failing to guard Noah Brown, who caught the Hail Mary? Well, Stevenson is dead last among all cornerbacks in PFF’s raw separation prevented metric. If there is a weak link the Bears pass defense, it’s him.
Identifying his assignment in this game would make for an attractive anytime touchdown prop bet. Reviewing tape from the past two Packers games, it appears the top-two candidates to line up outside left for the Packers are Doubs and Wicks, but Green Bay rotates where its receivers line up quite often. That makes it tough to peg who the best bet is here to see the most coverage (or lack thereof) against Stevenson.
What we know for sure is Doubs is playing more snaps. He’s played more than 80% each of the past three games versus Wicks, who has snap percentages in that span of 41%, 30%, and 54%. Doubs has out-targeted Wicks 21-11 during this stretch, too. Since returning from a one-week team suspension in Week 5, Doubs leads the Packers offense with 25 targets, six more than both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
