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Best anytime touchdown bets for Chiefs vs. Bills in Week 11
Which players have the best value to score in this contemporary AFC rivalry?
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have faced off in many classic games in recent years. Josh Allen and the Bills won a regular season tilt over the Chiefs in 2023, only to see Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City return the favor with a narrow playoff victory on the way to a Super Bowl title. This season, the rivals meet in Week 11 and enter with the two best records in the AFC.
Kansas City is the league’s only unbeaten team with a 9-0 record after a comeback win over the Denver Broncos in Week 10. The Chiefs will visit Highmark Stadium in Buffalo for this matchup, though Kansas City is 4-0 away from home in 2024. The Bills are 8-2 overall and 4-0 in home games this season. Buffalo also enters on a five-game winning streak, including a Week 10 road win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Kansas City is the current betting favorite with +400 consensus odds at NFL betting sites to win the Super Bowl, while Buffalo is listed at +800 in the Super Bowl futures market. For this Week 11 tilt, the Bills are listed as 2-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 46 points.
This article will highlight some of the best anytime touchdown prop bets available for this game. As a gentle reminder, these odds and figures are always subject to change, and it is recommended that readers take stock of the odds at all of the best online sportsbooks before placing wagers.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (-115, FanDuel)
At the time of this post, Hunt has the shortest odds in the market of any player to find the end zone in this game. That reality could take attention away from him in some corners of the handicapping space, but there is an opportunity with his current price at FanDuel Sportsbook. Hunt’s efficiency is not exactly top-notch, as he is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, with five straight games under 4 yards per rush attempt. However, Hunt has been a fixture in short-yardage situations, and he was a mainstay in the passing game in Week 10 with 10 targets, seven receptions, and 65 yards through the air.
Since taking over lead duties in Kansas City’s backfield, Hunt has five touchdowns in six games, and he is a physical runner who can garner the extra yard when needed. The Bills have also been at least somewhat vulnerable against opposing running backs this season, giving up more than 155 total yards per game and yielding 10 total touchdowns. Hunt may not be the most aesthetically pleasing player, but he has at least 21 touches in five straight games, and the volume points to an opportunity here.
Bills TE Dawson Knox (+275, bet365)
Kansas City’s defense has been fantastic all season, especially when it comes to stopping the run. The Chiefs are also elite in limiting wide receiver production, but Kansas City does have something of a vulnerability when it comes to tight ends. No team in the NFL has allowed more yardage (77.6 yards per game) to opposing tight ends this season and, while that has only resulted in three touchdowns, Buffalo should be able to create positive chances with its tight ends.
Enter Dawson Knox, who might be the No. 1 tight end for Buffalo in this matchup. Incumbent starter Dalton Kincaid suffered an injury in Week 10 and even if he plays. there is a chance he is limited. Knox was once the starter for the Bills, and he is not an anonymous backup tight end, with Knox scoring 23 touchdowns in his NFL career. At the moment, he is being priced below where he should be given the uncertainty with Kincaid and the matchup.
Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins (+240, bet365)
Travis Kelce’s resurgence commands a great deal of attention. After all, he is one of the best tight ends of all-time, a very famous person in the current climate, and a player with 40 targets in the last three weeks. With that said, Buffalo will be keyed on Kelce in a big way, and the Bills have allowed only one touchdown to an opposing tight end in 2024.
Hopkins has a more favorable price than Kelce in the market, and he is more than capable of winning in tight spaces. The veteran’s final game with the Tennessee Titans came against Buffalo, and it was a flop. Still, he has seen the Bills in the very recent past, and Hopkins has 14 targets and two touchdowns in the last two games with Kansas City. Kelce is the No. 1 target in the offense, but Hopkins looks to be the clear No. 2 and he is underpriced this week.
