We've finally reached NFL Draft week, which means we're only two days away from seeing 257 prospects turn into draft picks for the 32 NFL teams on Thursday. Much like last year, there's certainty at No. 1 (though more so this draft cycle with the Bears and Caleb Williams) and a whole lot of questions starting at No. 2.
On the Monday of draft week last year, the odds market had fully bought in on the Texans taking Will Levis at No. 2, making him the odds-on favorite for the pick at -120. Levis was also the favorite to be picked No. 4 at +130. Three days later, Levis was not picked at all in Round 1 as C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson were selected second and fourth overall, respectively. Other odds of note that Monday: Tyree Wilson was -550 to go in the top five (he went seventh), Christian Gonzalez was -200 to go in the top 10 (he went 17th) and Michael Mayer was -175 to be the first tight end selected (he was the third).
The moral of the story: We think we know generally how Round 1 is going to go after months and months of mock drafts, athletic testing and rumor-mill churning, but we have no idea. If you take any actual draft and present it to the masses as a mock draft even a few days out, they would think it was ridiculous. The Lions going Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell in the first round? Nolan Smith lasting until No. 30?! Will Levis falling completely out of the first round?!? And so on.
I've attempted to harness some of the chaos by putting together a mock draft with some obvious and some not-so-obvious picks. As always, I generate several trades using my NFL Draft pick value chart, which is available over at SportsLine exclusively for members. While you're there, you can also find 10 longshot NFL Draft bets I love heading into the final stretch, and my final mock draft will go up Thursday reacting to the final changes in prospect projections as NFL teams finalize their big boards.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
Round 1
2024 NFL Mock Draft
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1, Pick 1
We're going to get to plenty of upset picks the rest of the way, but this won't be one of them. Expect Williams to hear his named called first on Thursday.
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Round 1, Pick 2
Alright, I'm going to veer away from the general consensus here. With the chaos of the Daniel Snyder era behind them, I can't see the new regime taking a QB who has already generated drama during the evaluation process and may not be 100% bought in to playing in Washington, especially when he's not the clear No. 2 prospect anyway. 'Same ol' Washington Football Team' coming out of this draft would be devastating. I think they'll ultimately choose to hitch their wagon to Maye, and we'll see if I'm right in the coming days.
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Round 1, Pick 3
Some reports suggest the Patriots would be happy with either of Maye or Daniels. Others say the team is high on McCarthy. I could see them going either way, and even one year after the draft community was largely fooled by the Will Levis buzz, I'm going to go with the late riser in McCarthy over the guy who wasn't expected to be here in the first place. De facto GM Eliot Wolf is said to be a big believer in the Michigan product, and he should be an easy sell to owner Robert Kraft.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1, Pick 4
The Giants go into attack mode, and I believe this trade is going to happen for either Daniels or Drake Maye at this spot. They're a more appealing trade partner to Arizona than others sitting at No. 6, and my chart has this costing the Giants No. 70 overall and a 2025 second-round pick to move up two spots, a fine price to pay to find a franchise quarterback. Brian Daboll is the perfect coach to build an offense around Daniels' skill set after helping Josh Allen reach his upside with the Bills.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1, Pick 5
You think Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is going to wait around to see if Harrison makes it to No. 6 after trading down two spots? I don't. While Harrison would be a major boost to the Chargers' receiving corps, I think Jim Harbaugh wants to go in a different direction, so the Chargers take No. 90 and No. 162 to flip spots with the Cardinals. Net for Arizona: Moving up 20 spots from No. 90 and turning No. 162 into a future second-round pick while getting the guy they wanted all along.
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From
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1, Pick 6
If the first four picks are quarterbacks, the Chargers will be faced with a tough decision: Take the offensive lineman they covet, or take the best player in the draft who also addresses a position of need. Or they can move down a spot, pick up extra draft capital and still get the draft's top O-lineman, who can give the Chargers an excellent set of bookends on the offensive line. This way everyone gets what they want, and the Chargers can address their receiving corps on Day 2 with the better depth at the position expected to be available than on the offensive line.
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Round 1, Pick 7
While Alt being off the board is a curse, Nabers being available is a blessing. Yes, the Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a big deal this offseason and still have DeAndre Hopkins, but the latter turns 32 in June, the former turns 30 this season and disappeared at times for the Jaguars in his return to football following an indefinite suspension for violating the gambling policy, and new coach Brian Callahan's offense in Cincinnati excelled when all three top receivers were healthy anyway. Finding a legit young receiver should still be a priority for Tennessee.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1, Pick 8
So the Vikings get shut out of the quarterback party with all four going in the first four picks. What do they do? They still need a quarterback and positioned themselves to take one in this draft by trading for No. 23. Maybe they sit at No. 11 and decide to go with Penix, who has generated more and more buzz as a first-round pick and potentially a high one despite his age and questionable medical history (though he checked out fine at the combine). But with Denver and Vegas right behind them itching for a QB, can they risk either beating them to the punch in a trade up and then go to Plan C? Unlikely. So they send No. 11 and 23 to Atlanta for No. 8 and 43. It's entirely possible the Penix buzz ends up like the Levis buzz, but I'll risk it.
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Round 1, Pick 9
I expect the Bears would be happy trading down from this slot and adding draft capital with just four picks on their ledger for 2024, but it's going to be hard to pass on Odunze if he's available, which I don't expect him to be in a more conventional draft scenario than I've laid out in the first eight picks as I think someone trades into No. 8 for him. An offense rolling out Odunze, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen gives top pick Caleb Williams all the weapons he needs to be a Day 1 success.
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Round 1, Pick 10
While the Jets could still take an offensive lineman even after adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson his offseason, I believe this comes down to Odunze vs. Bowers, and I won't rule them trading up for the former if they have the opportunity. But here they go with the tight end and put together on paper what looks like a dangerous offense if Aaron Rodgers is back in form once healthy.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1, Pick 11
Went back and forth between making this Dallas Turner or Latu and initially went Turner, but the markets have now moved to make Latu the favorite at No. 8 at some spots so I'm going to go with my initial gut instinct. The Falcons turn their second-round pick into another first-round pick and still wind up with their choice of edge rusher. I'm not ruling out them trading down a little further with him as the target either, and Turner is obviously another option at this point.
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Mock Trade from
Denver Broncos
Round 1, Pick 12
What, you thought Monti Ossenfort was done? When the Cardinals have the most draft capital in the league, with six picks -- six picks! -- in the top 71 after their earlier pair of trades? Think again. Turner has long been projected as the first defender off the board, and this is a version of the Texans getting the best offensive and defensive player last year with their trade up from No. 12 to No. 3 with the Cardinals. Arizona gives up No. 27 and No. 35 for No. 12 and No. 147, putting Denver in better position to address their biggest need at better value.
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Round 1, Pick 13
The betting market is projecting Fuaga to go right around this pick, and he seems like the perfect fit for the Raiders at right tackle, so I'll make a rare obvious pick with quarterback no longer a realistic option for the Raiders. Fuaga should stick at tackle, but he also has the ability to be a Pro Bowl guard if he has to kick inside.
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Round 1, Pick 14
Another obvious match here with the Saints in dire need of tackle help with Trevor Penning a recent bust at left tackle and Ryan Ramczyk a question mark at right tackle due to injury. While some predraft buzz has suggested Fashanu could slip, the betting market isn't buying it, with strong indications that No. 14 is his floor.
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Mock Trade from
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1, Pick 15
Murphy is the type of athletic freak the Packers love to draft, and GM Brian Gutekunst has a track record of prioritizing the defensive trenches in the draft. The Texas product will give them a true pass-rushing threat from the interior of the defense as they move to a one-gap scheme under new DC Jeff Hafley and bring the attack mentality he's focused on building around. The deal costs Green Bay No. 25 and 58 to move up.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1, Pick 16
We're probably not going to see six trades in the first 16 picks, but I'm going with it in this mock anyway. The Steelers get a plug-and-play right tackle who allows Broderick Jones to flip to the left side, and the Seahawks get to trade down as they often want to do (especially in a draft where they don't have a second-round pick). This deal costs the Steelers No. 20 and 84, but it's worth it with Latham lasting longer than anticipated.
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Round 1, Pick 17
It seemed unlikely for much of draft season that Mitchell could fall this far, but the betting market has been all in on him slipping further than expected. The Jaguars' need for a corner matches up well with the how the market is expecting things to shake out a few days away from the draft, as they should have a chance to draft either Mitchell or Terrion Arnold here (or Cooper DeJean if they prefer).
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Round 1, Pick 18
Fautanu is expected to be gone in the first 15 picks, but so are four other offensive linemen even though I'm not sure it's that realistic for it to happen. If one of them slips, the Bengals are poised to take advantage here and grab someone who can immediately step in at right tackle.
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Round 1, Pick 19
It's thought the Rams are going to go either with an edge rusher or a defensive tackle after the retirement of future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. They certainly could use more pass rush, but I think the cornerbacks available at this spot are going to grade higher than their options at other positions, particularly if Latu and Murphy are gone as I expect. Arnold gives the Rams much needed help at corner with his ability to cover all types of receivers.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1, Pick 20
The Seahawks move down a second time, taking the 20th and 84th picks they received from the Steelers for No. 16 and sending them both to the Bills for No. 28, 60 and 160. Buffalo traded away Stefon Diggs for a 2025 second-round pick, and this gives them a chance at a replacement without completely sacrificing a second-rounder, instead moving down 24 picks and staying in Day 2. Thomas is a great match for Buffalo, and many mock drafters have connected the dots in a trade-up scenario. This one puts the Seahawks in better position for someone I think is their top target.
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Round 1, Pick 21
The Dolphins are widely expected to go offensive lineman here, but I believe Newton is the type of prospect who can cause them to deviate from that plan as their replacement for Christian Wilkins up front on the other side of the ball. A skilled pass-rusher who can attack from the interior and alleviate some of the pressure on the edge rushers returning from injury in Miami, Newton is a Round 1 lock for me even if many projections have put him on the fringe of hearing his name called Thursday.
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Round 1, Pick 22
DeJean is expected to go right around this spot in the betting market, and he's seemingly a great fit for the Eagles with the versatility to play either corner or safety, both needs in the secondary after last year's disastrous stretch run. DeJean's stock is trending up heading into draft week, and I wouldn't be surprised if he cracked the top 20, or if the Eagles decided to trade up for him or another of the top three corners to make sure they aren't shut out at the position or have to pivot to the next tier.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1, Pick 23
The Falcons likely were hoping to get one of the top three corners when they added this pick, but Wiggins is a fine consolation prize as a Georgia native with a connection to A.J. Terrell as another prospect out of Clemson. The betting market has decided Wiggins is at best the fourth cornerback prospect, but I don't really know why. I can see a team like Atlanta, which met with him at the combine, having him rated higher than the market expects as a fit for Raheem Morris' defense.
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Round 1, Pick 24
The Cowboys are typically connected with Tyler Guyton at this point of the draft, but there's a real chance Mims is still available when they're on the clock. He has all the traits to succeed and lands in a good spot to develop in Dallas, and if he takes to left tackle, the Cowboys are in a great spot on the left side of the line with Tyler Smith at guard. Or they have the option to keep Mims at his more natural right tackle and move Smith to left tackle. It's nice to have options.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1, Pick 25
Offensive line isn't seen as an option for the Colts' first pick, but I think it makes a lot of sense, especially if they trade down to this range. Ryan Kelly is a free agent after this year and will be 32 years old in 2024, while Will Fries is also heading into free agency after this season. Barton could be an upgrade on Fries this year and/or the natural successor at center to Kelly with a year to fully train for the position, and he can also provide immediate depth outside should Fries stick as a starter.
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Round 1, Pick 26
Verse is not expected to be available this deep in the draft, although the betting market has been trending toward him falling further than expected, possibly due to him not having ideal traits for the position. That would benefit the Bucs and help them fill their biggest need while not having to reach for a Chop Robinson type.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1, Pick 27
The Broncos picked up the 27th and 35th picks from the Cardinals in order to move down from No. 12, and while Nix's stock suggests they can wait until the latter to select him, I don't think they risk it, especially with Verse coming off the board right before their pick as the obvious pivot. The Broncos have remained the heavy favorite to land Nix in betting markets despite not having a second-round pick thanks to his potential fit in Sean Payton's offense, and this is a way for that to happen without reaching at No. 12.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1, Pick 28
No linebackers were expected to go in the first round last year before the Lions selected Jack Campbell at No. 18. No linebackers are expected to go in the first round this year, but this is an obvious fit for the prospect some rate as the best at the position. Colson played a key role in the success of new coach Mike Macdonald's defense at Michigan as a freshman, and Seattle has prioritized this position before when no one expected it by taking Jordyn Brooks in the first round. They're in much worse shape at the position this year with Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker set to man the inside on one-year deals. Colson is a player I expect Macdonald to prioritize after trading down.
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Mock Trade from
Detroit Lions
Round 1, Pick 29
The Panthers are largely out of the mock draft conversation after trading their first-round pick to the Bears in last year's deal to move up for Bryce Young. But they're in prime position to move up for a receiver with two picks in the top 40, and they could either focus on the speed of Xavier Worthy or the better size and all-around potential of Mitchell. They give Detroit No. 101 to move up four spots, allowing the Lions to enter Day 2 and Day 3 with the top pick on the board and in prime position to field trade offers. I'd have them taking Darius Robinson at No. 33 if this mock went beyond 32 picks.
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Round 1, Pick 30
The Ravens have needs all over the offensive line aside from center with three starters departing, and Guyton is someone who can be groomed to take over for Ronnie Stanley at left tackle after the veteran's contract was reworked for 2024. Stanley has also played just 31 games over the last four seasons, so Guyton may be needed sooner rather than later.
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Round 1, Pick 31
The 49ers have added depth at corner, but McKinstry provides an upgrade on those options who has scheme versatility and impressed with his athletic testing in the face of a Jones fracture in his foot. The depth the 49ers have can allow McKinstry to get fully healthy even if he's not ready for training camp as expected, and he should quickly slot in as a key contributor in the secondary.
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Round 1, Pick 32
While receiver could certainly be an option for the Chiefs here, I expect Morgan will appeal as an alternative to re-signing Donovan Smith after penalties were such an issue for the Chiefs tackles last year. Morgan has recovered well from 2022's ACL tear, and the expectation is that he'll be a first-round pick.
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