In any other year, the AFC West would be pretty clearly the best division in football. Because of the existence of the 2016 NFC East, where all four teams are .500 or better heading into Week 12, we have to qualify the AFC West's excellence with "arguably" this season. The AFC West is arguably the best division in the NFL.
The four teams in the division have a combined record of 26-14, good for a 0.650 winning percentage that is second-best to only the NFC East. They have a combined point differential of plus-128, again second to only the NFC East. They also have three teams currently in playoff position, a distinction they share with ... the NFC East.
The AFC West's three playoff teams are: the Oakland Raiders, who currently hold the No. 1 seed by virtue of controlling a tiebreaker over the New England Patriots; the Kansas City Chiefs, who have grip of the No. 5 seed; and the Denver Broncos, who control the No. 6 seed.
With six games remaining for each of the three teams, it's a good time to take a look at how they each got to where they are now, what they can expect to face the rest of the way, and the chances that each of them winds up snagging the division crown or one of the wild card spots.
Oakland Raiders
- Record: 8-2 (3-2 at home; 5-0 on the road; 6-1 against AFC; 2-1 against AFC West)
- Point differential: +29
- DVOA: Eighth (fourth on offense, 29th on defense)
- Remaining schedule: Panthers, Bills, at Chiefs, at Chargers, Colts, at Broncos
- SOS: 0.525
The Raiders are currently the overwhelming favorite to win the division, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds, which pin their chances of finishing atop the AFC West at 54.5 percent. Oakland is a game ahead of both the Chiefs and Broncos, and has the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams thanks to games against four teams that currently have records below .500, plus one against KC and one against Denver.
The FO odds give the Raiders just about an equal shot of finishing as the AFC's No. 1 (26.8 percent) or No. 2 seed (26.5 percent). They are in first place thanks to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Patriots, who nevertheless remain the heavy favorite (57.5 percent) to get home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Even if the Raiders slip in the division race, they still stand a very good chance of making it to the postseason: FO pegs their odds of playing after the first week of January at 89.4 percent. That's the highest of any team in football other than the Seahawks, Patriots, and Cowboys.
It should be noted that each of the Raiders' three remaining division games are on the road, but it's also important to remember that Jack Del Rio's gang has yet to lose a game away from home this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Record: 7-3 (4-1 at home; 3-2 on the road; 5-2 against AFC; 2-0 against AFC West)
- Point Differential: +35
- DVOA: 13th (20th on offense, 11th on defense)
- Remaining Schedule: at Broncos, at Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Broncos, at Chargers
- SOS: 0.607
This Sunday's game against the Broncos will go a long way toward deciding who actually has a leg up in the race, but for now, the Chiefs are ahead on the tiebreaker and hold the No.5 seed. The two teams also play each other in Week 16 so even this week's game isn't definitive, but it's almost always better to play from ahead than behind.
Currently in the higher seed line, the FO playoff odds pin Kansas City's chances of making the playoffs at an only very slightly higher number (62.6 percent as opposed to 62.2 percent). The Chiefs are considered to have the lowest chance of the three teams to win the division, however, at just 11.3 percent. This is likely thanks to a schedule that contains only two games against teams below .500, as well as a road date with the Falcons.
The Chiefs are also the only one of the three AFC West contenders that doesn't have an elite unit on either side of the ball. The Raiders have the NFL's No. 4 offense by DVOA; the Broncos have the No. 2 defense; Kansas City is outside the top-10 on both sides.
Andy Reid's squad is the only one in the AFC West without a division loss so far, but they also still have four divisional games left on the schedule, two at home and two on the road. They have the misfortune of ending their season away from home, which also helps Denver get a slight leg up on the playoff chances overall, though most of that is due to having a leg up on wild-card chances as opposed to the division.
Denver Broncos
- Record: 7-3 (4-1 at home; 3-2 on the road; 4-2 against AFC; 1-2 against AFC West)
- Point Differential: +50
- DVOA: 11th (26th on offense, second on defense)
- Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, at Jaguars, at Titans, Patriots, at Chiefs, Raiders
- SOS: 0.607
The Broncos lead the division in point differential at plus-50. They have easily the best defense of these three teams. But they also have the worst offense, the worst record against the conference, and the worst record in divisional games.
Luckily, they have a home-and-home left with the Chiefs and end the season at home as well. They also have the good fortune of playing their toughest remaining opponent (the Patriots) in their own stadium. That's not something either the Raiders or Chiefs can say.
The Chiefs have greater odds at winning the division than the Broncos, per Football Outsiders -- 24.5 percent to 20.9 percent. However, the same odds give Denver a better chance at snagging the No. 1 seed in the AFC as well as the No. 5 seed if all three AFC West teams happen to make it into the tournament (which has an approximately 38 percent chance of happening, per the implied odds).
While the Broncos and Chiefs have the same remaining strength of schedule overall, Denver does get to play the Jaguars, which probably gives them the surest remaining win on any of these three teams' schedules. That game is balanced out with one against the Patriots, but when every win matters a great deal, it's nice to have a potential gimme on the books.
