Revenge or repeat? Burrow vs. Lawrence and McCarthy vs. Penix Jr. headline NFL Week 2 slate
Week 2 puts the spotlight on where four famous college QBs stand in their NFL journeys
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14 min read
Week 2 of the NFL season features plenty of fascinating matchups, including two quarterback rematches from recent college football national championship games.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, which is a QB rematch from the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship game, where LSU defeated Clemson, 42-25. J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings will welcome Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons to U.S. Bank Stadium, which is a QB rematch of the 2024 CFP National Championship game, where Michigan defeated Washington, 34-13.
All four of these quarterbacks went on to be selected in the first round of their respective drafts. Some of their NFL careers have taken off, while there are question marks for others. Let's revisit these four quarterbacks, who they were as college players, how they fared in their championship games and what their NFL careers have been like.
Burrow becomes a legend after losing QB battle
"Joe Cool," a four-star recruit from The Plains, Ohio, began his college career at Ohio State. He played just 11 games for the Buckeyes, backing up J.T. Barrett and then losing a QB battle to Dwayne Haskins, before opting to join LSU as a graduate transfer. In his first season with the Tigers as a redshirt junior in 2018, Burrow completed 57.8% of his passes for 2,894 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions while the LSU went 10-3. It was a solid first campaign, but that season set the table for college football history.
In 2019, the Burrow-led Tigers stood atop the FBS with 568.4 total yards per game and 48.4 points per game. Burrow led the SEC in virtually every passing metric, completing 402 of 527 passes (76.3%) for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 15 total games. His 65 total touchdowns are still tied for an NCAA record, and Burrow won the Heisman Trophy, AP College Football Player of the Year, and other honors, such as the Manning Award. LSU went a perfect 12-0 in the regular season.
As a prospect, Burrow drew comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner. He was lauded for his football IQ, comfort with full-field progressions and the ability to throw with anticipation. All the things you want from a prospective franchise quarterback, which is why he was eventually selected No. 1 overall.
CBS Sports' Dave Richard was clearly excited about Burrow's potential:
"Burrow has nearly all the characteristics desired to be a great NFL quarterback. His throwing motion and footwork are NFL-ready, helping him effortlessly and accurately place balls for his receivers all over the field. He does an excellent job avoiding the pass rush when he can while keeping his eyes downfield, but he's even better at realizing that it's coming and adjusting to it before the snap. He throws with good velocity and can add the perfect amount of touch when needed.
Lawrence quickly goes from No. 1 recruit to champion
The 6-foot-6 quarterback from Cartersville, Georgia, was the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2018 class, according to 247Sports. While he began his collegiate career on the bench behind Kelly Bryant, Lawrence quickly took over as a starter after four games and led Clemson to the ACC Championship game, throwing for 3,280 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions.
It was a magical season, as Clemson blew out Pittsburgh in the ACC title game, defeated Notre Dame by 27 points in the Cotton Bowl Classic and then handed Tua Tagovailoa and Nick Saban a 44-16 loss in the 2019 CFP National Championship game. Lawrence threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns, good enough for Offensive MVP honors. The Tigers finished the season a perfect 15-0.
Lawrence entered his sophomore year as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and ended up leading the ACC with 3,665 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Clemson had another undefeated season going, destroying Virginia in the ACC Championship, 62-17, and slipping by Justin Fields' Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl, 29-23. That set up a date with LSU in the national championship, which we'll get to soon...
Lawrence finished his collegiate career with a 34-2 record and was compared to Andrew Luck as a prospect. He was praised for his size, ability as a pocket passer, internal clock and athleticism. Yes, he was even described as "generational." With the Jaguars holding the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Lawrence was hailed as "The prince who was promised."
Tale of the tape: 2020 CFP championship
It was the 14-0 Tigers vs. the 14-0 Tigers in New Orleans. Lawrence had a loaded arsenal that included Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers and Travis Etienne, but LSU boasted more eventual NFL Draft picks. Burrow was throwing to a couple of wideouts named Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, and had the backing of a defense that included Patrick Queen, K'Lavon Chaisson, Kristian Fulton, Derek Stingley Jr. and Grant Delpit -- just to name a few. LSU was favored by about 4.5 points entering this matchup, and you could understand why with them having "home-field advantage" in Louisiana.
Believe it or not, this game began with four straight punts -- including three three-and-outs! Lawrence got the scoring started with a one-yard touchdown run to cap a five-play, 67-yard drive. Burrow answered late in the first quarter with a 52-yard touchdown pass to Chase -- who tormented eventual first-round CB A.J. Terrell that game. Clemson would score 10 straight points to start off the second quarter, but that's when LSU blew it open.
Ed Orgeron's Tigers scored three straight touchdowns to go up 28-17 at halftime. An Etienne touchdown in the third quarter pulled Clemson within three points, but LSU would close out the game with two more touchdowns for a 42-25 victory. LSU's win snapped Clemson's 29-game win streak and completed the perfect season for the "Bayou Bengals."
Burrow, Lawrence's 2020 CFP championship game stats
| Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
Passing | 31/49 | 18/37 |
Passing yards | 463 | 234 |
Passing TDs | 5 | 0 |
INTs | 0 | 0 |
Rushing attempts | 14 | 10 |
Rushing yards | 58 | 49 |
Rushing TDs | 1 | 1 |
Burrow clearly outplayed Lawrence in this game, scoring six total touchdowns compared to Lawrence's one rushing touchdown.
Burrow firmly among NFL's top QBs
It's safe to say that Burrow lived up to the No. 1 overall billing, as he is regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today.
While he tore his ACL 10 games into his rookie season, Burrow returned in Year 2 to take the Bengals to the Super Bowl. He's a two-time Pro Bowler, two-time Comeback Player of the Year and led the NFL in both passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43) this past season. Just three quarterbacks have ever thrown for 4,500 yards, 40 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season: Burrow in 2024, Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Tom Brady in 2007. Burrow is the only one of the three not to win MVP after that campaign.
Lawrence amid make-or-break year
The jury is still out on the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Some believe Lawrence is a certified bust, while others think there's a chance the 25-year-old signal caller can turn it around. Under Urban Meyer in Year 1, Lawrence went 3-14 while throwing for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns and a league-high 17 interceptions. He was given a pass since Meyer was such a disaster in the NFL. Lawrence did rebound in 2022 under Doug Pederson.
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The Jags went 9-8 in 2022, while Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Jacksonville won the AFC South and came back from down 27-0 vs. the Chargers in the wild-card round to win, 31-30. It marked the fifth-largest comeback in NFL history. However, that was probably the pinnacle of the Lawrence era thus far. He went 8-8 in 2023 and signed a five-year, $275 million deal the following offseason, but has gone just 3-8 since.
Injuries have unfortunately been a big storyline for Lawrence as of late. A shoulder injury and concussion held him to just 10 games played in 2024, which was Pederson's final season in Jacksonville. There's optimism for Lawrence with Liam Coen now roaming the sidelines, but he did not look especially sharp in the 26-10 Week 1 win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, throwing for 178 yards, one touchdown and one interception. We'll see what happens.
Now for the Sunday night clash.
Michael Penix Jr.'s out-of-nowhere star turn
Penix was a three-star recruit hailing from Tampa and committed to play football at Indiana in 2018. He suffered a torn ACL as a true freshman, needed shoulder surgery that cut his 2019 season short and then suffered another torn ACL in 2020, followed by a dislocated shoulder in 2021. It looked like Penix's story was going to be one headlined by injury, but everything changed when he transferred to Washington.
In his first season with coach Kalen DeBoer's Huskies, Penix led the FBS in passing yards per game with 357, and had his best collegiate season to that point, throwing for 4,641 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. In 2023, Penix somehow upped the ante by throwing for 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while Washington went 14-0. As Dennis Dodd wrote last year, Penix took control of his career and became the most impactful player of the transfer portal era.
Penix wrapped up his collegiate career with a 37-8 record over six seasons and was the 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up. He became the first player since Patrick Mahomes to have multiple seasons of 4,500 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns, and shined as a deep-ball thrower. Penix led the FBS in completions (60) and passing touchdowns (26) of 25+ air yards over his final two seasons.
As a prospect, Penix was lauded for his arm talent and willingness to chuck the ball all over the field. However, there were plenty of evaluators who were absolutely terrified of his injury rap sheet, and wondered if he was worth the investment as a first-round pick.
J.J. McCarthy elevated Harbaugh's Michigan era
McCarthy was born in Illinois and began his high school career at Nazareth Academy before transferring to IMG Academy. He grew up as an Ohio State fan, but after being spurned by Ryan Day, he switched his allegiance to Michigan. 247Sports' Gabe Brooks was impressed with McCarthy's mobility when he evaluated the young quarterback in 2020:
"Already flashes plus vertical arm capacity and good velocity in the short-to-intermediate game. Capable of pushing the ball down the field even when forced to remain flat-footed with pressure in his face. Consistently makes on-target throws from the pocket, but also is dangerous breaking the pocket and throwing on the move. Pro-style QB with functional athleticism to hurt defenses as a scrambler, whether via off-schedule throws or tucking it. Fit the ball in some tight windows as a senior and owns requisite arm strength to drive the ball to the perimeter when required..."
In his second collegiate season, McCarthy took the starting job from Cade McNamara -- who had led Michigan to a CFP berth, losing to Georgia -- and threw for 2,719 yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. That year, the Wolverines won their first game in Ohio Stadium since 2000, defeated Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game and made the CFP with a 13-0 record. McCarthy had proven a clear upgrade over McNamara. However, Michigan was stunned in the CFP semifinal by TCU, 51-45, as Quentin Johnston exploded for 163 yards receiving and one touchdown.
McCarthy has not lost a game since then. He upped his game in 2023, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. This Michigan team was loaded, and never dropped below No. 3 in the AP poll. The Wolverines cruised to a 12-0 record, blanked Iowa 26-0 in the Big Ten Championship, defeated Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl in overtime and then took down Washington for their first national championship since 1997.
McCarthy finished his collegiate career with a 27-1 record, which is the third-best by a quarterback in FBS history. He threw 44 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in his final two seasons, but it was clear he was not the most exciting prospect in the history of college football. He never threw for 3,000 yards in a season and was not known for letting the ball rip downfield. CBS Sports' Dan Schneier described McCarthy as one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, but compared him to Rich Gannon with more to offer as a runner.
Sure, McCarthy was efficient, but was he a legitimate playmaker worth drafting in the top 10 or top five?
Tale of the tape: 2024 CFP championship
This game was about Washington's offense vs. Michigan's defense. Penix commanded the No. 2 passing offense in the FBS, which averaged 343.7 yards per game, while Michigan touted the No. 1 overall defense, allowing just 247 total yards per game and an incredible 10.4 points per game. Harbaugh's squad didn't allow 10 points in a game until Michigan's sixth game that year.
The Wolverines entered this matchup as favorites of about 4.5 points -- the same spread of that Clemson-LSU championship we addressed earlier. Michigan kicked off the game with a touchdown -- a 41-yard Donovan Edwards run to cap an eight-play, 84-yard opening drive. Washington wasn't rattled, as Penix led a 14-play, 67-yard drive that stalled inside the Michigan 10-yard line. Kalen DeBoer settled for a field goal. Edwards then again broke loose on the Wolverines' next possession, scoring from 46 yards out to put Michigan up 14-3.
Penix hit Jalen McMillan for a 3-yard touchdown in the second quarter to pull Washington within seven points at halftime, but the Huskies never got closer. After the two teams exchanged field goals in the third quarter, Blake Corum scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to clinch a 34-13 victory.
Michigan put up 301 yards of total offense compared to Michigan's 443 yards. However, McCarthy passed for just 140 of those yards! Corum and Edwards were the stars of the show, as they combined for 238 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Edwards averaged 17.3 yards per carry, but Corum won offensive MVP.
Michigan's championship win was shrouded in controversy, as the program was in the midst of a sign-stealing investigation that led to Harbaugh being suspended for three games on two separate occasions during this season.
McCarthy, Penix's 2024 CFP championship game stats
| J.J. McCathy | Michael Penix Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
Passing | 10/18 | 27/51 |
Passing yards | 140 | 255 |
Passing TDs | 0 | 1 |
INTs | 0 | 2 |
Rushing attempts | 4 | 3 |
Rushing yards | 31 | -5 |
Rushing TDs | 0 | 0 |
A surprising pick, Penix is now Atlanta's guy
The Falcons shocked the NFL world by selecting Penix No. 8 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft directly after signing Kirk Cousins to a lucrative deal in free agency. Penix received three starts as a rookie, winning one of them, while throwing for 775 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in five total games played. Still, he did enough to win the trust of Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson, and was named the starter for the 2025 season.
There's legitimate optimism surrounding Penix. Not only does he possess enough talent to be a franchise quarterback, but he's also surrounded by a fleet of weapons -- Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Can McCarthy repay Minnesota's trust?
McCarthy was selected by the Vikings with the No. 10 overall pick in the same draft as Penix, but missed his entire rookie season due to a knee injury. Kevin O'Connell felt comfortable enough with him to allow Sam Darnold to hit free agency following last year's 14-3 campaign.
In his first NFL start this past Monday night vs. the Chicago Bears, McCarthy completed 13 of 20 passes for 143 yards, two touchdowns, one pick six, and also rushed twice for 25 yards and another score. He started the game painfully slow, but scored three total touchdowns in the fourth quarter as Minnesota overcame an 11-point deficit to beat the Bears at Solider Field. It was the largest fourth-quarter comeback recorded on the road by a quarterback in his first career start since at least 2000. No doubt McCarthy won over the locker room with his play in that one quarter.
Which QB has the best chance at revenge in Week 2?
Between Lawrence and Penix, which player has the best shot at revenge this weekend? Both of these quarterbacks will be playing on the road. Believe it or not, sportsbooks indicate Lawrence has the better chance to secure an upset victory, despite him being probably the most disappointing quarterback of this group. His Jaguars are 3.5-point underdogs, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while Penix's Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs to the Vikings.
With that being said, I believe it's actually Atlanta that has the better chance to register an upset. Penix threw for 298 yards and accounted for two total touchdowns vs. the Buccaneers last week, while Robinson shined as a receiver with 100 yards and one touchdown on six receptions. To me, the Vikings could be an easier opponent than the Burrow-led Bengals. McCarthy had an incredible fourth quarter on Monday night, but he looked like a quarterback that was not prepared at all in the first half of his first start.
I say Penix has a better chance at beating McCarthy than Lawrence has of beating Burrow.
