NFL Week 11 odds, picks: Chiefs suffer another upset loss, Fitzmagic continues as Miami extends winning streak

Ten weeks of the NFL season are in the books and this most recent weekend may have been the toughest in terms of trying to pick winners and losers.

We saw the likes of Ryan Tannehill square up with the Chiefs and get a win, Matt Ryan and the Falcons looking like the team that went to Super Bowl LI against the Saints, and even the Browns were able to squeak out a 'W' over Buffalo. That's not even mentioning the 49ers falling for the first time this season or the Rams laying an egg in Pittsburgh.

This week things appear to be a bit more cut and dry, but still are some head scratchers, especially when you take into consideration some of the injuries happening across the league, like Matthew Stafford in Detroit and Indy's Jacoby Brissett. That said, we feel pretty confident about a number of these games, including a few that will have a direct impact on the AFC West playoff picture.

Before we get to those picks, let's see where we stand heading into Week 11.

Picks record

Straight up: 92-55-1
Against the spread: 68-78-2

Tough go for us last week as the Titans, Falcons and Steelers were all able to come out with upset wins in Week 10. We were able to save ourselves a bit with the Vikings pick over the Cowboys along with Raiders and Ravens coming out winners ATS.

Alright, let's get to the picks.

Steelers at Browns

Point spread: Steelers +2.5

Cleveland was able to snap its four-game losing streak last weekend with a win against the Bills, but now have the daunting task of hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on "Thursday Night Football.'' In that win, the Browns passing game looked a little improved, but they did mostly lean on both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. If that's the game plan heading into this AFC North showdown with the Steelers, I don't believe it'll be enough to beat a red-hot Steelers defense, that ranks third in the NFL in DVOA. That unit has been able to create multiple turnovers in each game coming off their Week 7 bye and have found the end zone in their previous two contests. With this Cleveland offense prone for turnovers, it should be another strong day for the Steelers as long as quarterback Mason Rudolph can keep up.

The pick: Steelers 24-17 over Browns

Texans at Ravens

Point spread: Ravens -4

Lamar Jackson has been in full video game mode as of late, especially in Baltimore's Week 10 win over the Bengals. That said, we kind of expected that Jackson would be able to run wild over Cincinnati, so we'd by lying if we said last weekend's stellar performance was shocking. Sunday will prove to be a much more difficult test as the Ravens are set to face the Houston Texans, a team that is very strong against the run. Heading into Week 11, the Texans rank third in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (84.1). For Jackson, he'll need to work with his arm to beat the Texans, who can be had through the air. While they are a strong team against the run, they've allowed the fourth most passing yards per game this season. With this spotty defense going up against an MVP candidate in Jackson, the Ravens should have no problem securing another win.

The pick: Ravens 30-20 over Texans

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Bengals at Raiders

Point spread: Raiders -10.5

The Bengals aren't exactly in the business of winning football games in 2019. They are on the inside track at the No. 1 overall pick and are lacking at key areas on both sides of the ball, so this one shouldn't be particularly close, as the double-digit spread indicates. The Raiders, meanwhile, haven't been a juggernaut this season, but have been competitive enough to be in contention for the AFC West crown. With Cincinnati coming to town this week and the a matchup with the Jets in Week 12, this is a prime opportunity for Jon Gruden's team to stack up some wins before a pivotal Week 13 showdown with Kansas City.

As for how the Raiders will win this game, look for rookie Josh Jacobs to see a heavy workload and thrive against a Bengals defense that is allowing 173 rushing yards a game.

The pick: Raiders 27-14 over Bengals

Chiefs at Chargers

Point spread: Chiefs -3.5

The Chiefs and Chargers will put a bow on Week 11 in the NFL when they square up in L.A. for "Monday Night Football.'' Patrick Mahomes returned under center for the Chiefs this past week, but his arrival didn't coincide with a victory as Kansas City fell to the Tennessee Titans in a rather surprising loss. Ryan Tannehill was able to find success against the Chiefs defense, who also struggled mightily against the run as Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns. That's the fifth time this season that the Chiefs have allowed over 180 rushing yards and they are 2-3 in those games.

They face another tough running team as the Chargers have run the ball 68 times over the last two weeks for 305 yards and three touchdowns. That, along with Philip Rivers' skills under center, looks like it'll result in another upset.

The pick: Chargers 35-33 over Chiefs

Bills at Dolphins

Point spread: Bills -6

Would you believe me if I told you that the Miami Dolphins are on the longest current winning streak in the AFC East? Well, they are. Miami finds themselves on a two-game winning streak heading into their Week 11 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. That has been on the shoulders of Ryan Fitzpatrick stabilizing things for the offense under center. They've averaged 21 points per game over this streak, while holding opponents 15 points and under 100 rushing yards per game.

Buffalo's defense has still been pretty solid over their rough stretch, but the offense has been under some criticism. Josh Allen has continued to be inaccurate throwing the football as he ranks 30th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks with a 59.9 completion percentage. I expect his struggles to continue once again as Fitzmagic, meanwhile, pulls off another upset.

The pick: Dolphins 24-20 over Bills