Tom Brady became the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots back in 2001. He took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and the rest is (literally) NFL history. In the ensuing 15 seasons, the Patriots have won the AFC East 13 times. They've also won the division each of the last seven years.
The last time the Pats didn't finish the regular season atop the AFC East was in 2008, when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 and didn't play the rest of the year. In every season where Brady has played all 16 games, there's only been one time where the Pats didn't win the division: back in 2002, when the New York Jets took it down.
Jets wide receiver Eric Decker is convinced that this year could see the team rise to the top yet again. Why? Because of Brady's four-game suspension.
"I think we're there, to be honest," Decker said on NFL Network this week, per the New York Daily News. "We're set up with a tough schedule ... a playoff team's schedule. You got to win your division games. With Brady being suspended four games, I think it makes that division up for grabs. I believe in this team that we're ready to make the run now."
Decker's right about that tougher schedule. The AFC East last season was matched up in the rotation with the NFC East and AFC South (also known as the two worst divisions in football), and the Jets finished 2014 in last place in the division, so they played a schedule with a collective winning percentage of 0.441 in 2015. Next season sees the AFC East matched up with the much stronger AFC North and NFC West, and the Jets finished 2015 in second place in the division, so they have a schedule with a collective winning percentage of 0.531 -- that's basically the equivalent of playing a team 1.5 wins per season better than they faced last year every single week.
The Jets are also not lucky enough to be one of the teams that plays New England within the first four weeks while Brady is serving his suspension (if it's upheld on appeal after the previous reversal). Instead, they open with five playoff teams in the first six weeks of the season and later get Brady in Week 12 and Week 16.
It's also likely that the Jets finished 2015 with a record that didn't accurately reflect their true talent level, given the wildly out-of-character performance they got from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The career journeyman that had never shown the ability to perform at a consistently above-average level finished his age-33 season with 31 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He seems extraordinarily unlikely to repeat that performance in 2016 ... and that's if the free agent winds up back with the Jets, as Decker himself expects. If he doesn't return to the fold, New York is looking at starting Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, or Christian Hackenberg under center. That's not exactly a murderer's row of candidates.
The thing working in the Jets' favor if the division does wind up "up for grabs" is that, well, the Dolphins and Bills aren't exactly all that great either. Unless they can get off to a super-hot start against their tough schedule, though, they're going to have to outduel Brady down the stretch of the season in order to come away with the division crown, and that's a tall order.
