Dallas looks to get its offense, and its season, back on track when the Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The Cowboys are coming off their first loss of the season after their offense was stifled in a 12-10 defeat at the hands of the Saints last week. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott will look to prove that was a fluke against a Green Bay team that also is looking to rebound from its first loss, 34-27 against the Eagles. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium, and Packers wide receiver Davante Adams is out with turf toe. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Cowboys odds, down a half-point from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 46.5. Before making your Packers vs. Cowboys picks, you need to listen to the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it's simulated Packers vs. Cowboys 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it has also generated a strong against the spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine. 

The model has taken into account that Elliott was held to 35 yards in last week's loss, but he entered the game fourth in the NFL in rushing and has 324 yards this season. The Packers' run defense is vulnerable, allowing 142.2 yards per game. Prescott is fourth in the NFL with a 113.7 passer rating, with Amari Cooper (21 catches, four TDs) as his top target. Second-leading receiver Michael Gallup (226 yards) is expected to return, while veteran Randall Cobb will eye a big day against his former team. Cobb, who spent eight seasons with Green Bay, averages 11.2 yards on his 14 catches. 

Linebacker Jaylon Smith captains a defense that is allowing just 14 points per game and leads the team with 36 tackles. Defensive end Robert Quinn is providing pressure, with three sacks in the two games since returning from a suspension, and while the secondary isn't getting turnovers, it is limiting teams to 221.8 passing yards.

But just because Dallas is at home doesn't mean it will cover the Cowboys vs. Packers spread on Sunday.

Rodgers threw for 422 yards in last week's loss as Green Bay all but abandoned the running game and has 1,069 yards and six touchdowns this season. He could be without standout receiver Davante Adams, who had a career-high 180 yards last week, but left with a toe injury. That means Marquez Valdes-Scantling (16 catches, 217 yards) and tight end Jimmy Graham (9 for 91) will need to contribute even more. 

Green Bay's defense is anchored by linebackers Blake Martinez (team-high 47 tackles, 1 sack) and Preston Smith (4.5 sacks, 1 interception). The Packers struggle against the run but allow only 330.2 yards and 17.2 points per game. Also in the Packers' favor: the Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread in their past four against teams with a winning record.

So who wins Packers vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Cowboys spread you should be all over on Sunday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks, and find out.