Technically, the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots when the two last met in Foxboro. But I say technically because when the Patriots hosted Buffalo in last year's regular-season finale, they had already wrapped up the AFC's top seed.
As a result, Tom Brady played just five series in a game that saw New England coast before pulling several key starters -- including Brady, Darrelle Revis, Jamie Collins, Devin McCourty and Nate Solder -- for most if not all of the second half.
So yes, the Bills did technically win that game 17-9, but the reality is Buffalo hasn't defeated its division rival in a meaningful road game since Nov. 5, 2000, when Steve Christie tied New England with a 48-yard field goal with four seconds left before winning it with a 32-yarder in overtime at the old Foxboro Stadium.
Fifteen years later, at a new venue and with completely different rosters, the Bills will look to find some of that magic again Monday night. It won't be easy: That Pats team was 2-6 and this one is 9-0. But at least the banged-up Patriots will be without several key cogs, including some of the guys listed above.
And hey, if the Lions can beat the Packers at Lambeau, anything can happen.
Using numbers to tell the story, here's what to expect Monday night at Gillette Stadium.
1. Turnover trends favor the Bills
- Key stat: After committing just three turnovers in their first seven games, the Patriots have turned it over four times in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills registered a season-high four takeaways in Week 10.
Does that mean the somewhat depleted Pats offense is becoming sloppier? Or was that a rough patch and they'll get back on track in prime time?
And does that mean the Bills -- who were one of three teams with 30 or more takeaways last season -- are starting to find a groove when it comes to being opportunistic? Or was that just a fortuitous game against a mistake-prone Jets team?
Brady committed three of New England's four turnovers against Washington and the Giants, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble, while the Bills intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick twice and forced two fumbles (one on special teams).
Brady's first interception (against Washington) came when he simply and uncharacteristically failed to see a linebacker underneath in the red zone. Strangely, his second pick (against the Giants) also came in the red zone, and he also looked as though he was trying to do too much on a strip sack. Both of those miscues came in the fourth quarter, so Brady really is lucky his team wasn't haunted by them.
If indeed the Pats -- who won't have top receiver Julian Edelman for quite a while -- continue to make those types of mistakes Monday night, a Bills team that has the third-highest takeaway total in football dating back to the start of 2014 might be capable of making them pay dearly.
| Most takeaways since the start of 2014 | ||
| Rank | Team | Takeaways |
| 1 | Giants | 49 |
| 2 | Eagles | 48 |
| 3 | Bills | 46 |
| Panthers | 46 | |
| 5 | Texans | 45 |
| Entering Week 11 | ||
2. This game features two of the three highest-rated passers in football
- Key stat: While Brady has the league's highest quarterback rating (111.1), Tyrod Taylor of the Bills has completed a league-high 70.5 percent of his passes.
| NFL's highest-rated passers, Weeks 1-10 | ||||||
| Rank | Player | Team | Completion % | TD-INT | YPA | Rating |
| 1 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 67.8 | 24-3 | 8.2 | 111.1 |
| 2 | Carson Palmer | Cardinals | 64.0 | 23-7 | 8.9 | 108.0 |
| 3 | Tyrod Taylor | Bills | 70.5 | 11-4 | 8.2 | 106.2 |
| 4 | Andy Dalton | Bengals | 66.2 | 18-5 | 8.2 | 104.6 |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | 63.3 | 21-3 | 7.3 | 103.4 |
Yes, Brady rightly gets a hell of a lot more attention, but this really could be a stellar quarterback matchup because Taylor -- albeit within a much smaller sample size of just seven starts -- has been lighting it up.
Prior to this season, the five-year veteran had never started a game in the NFL. But beyond midseason, he's been one of the most consistent, accurate passers in football. And the numbers show he gets better as games progress.
Problem is, so does Brady ...
| Highest-rated fourth-quarter passers, Weeks 1-10 | ||||||
| Rank | Player | Team | Completion % | TD-INT | YPA | Rating |
| 1 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 72.4 | 9-1 | 9.5 | 131.5 |
| 2 | Tyrod Taylor | Bills | 69.8 | 5-1 | 9.8 | 130.3 |
| 3 | Carson Palmer | Cardinals | 66.7 | 8-1 | 8.6 | 122.2 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | 65.9 | 7-1 | 7.9 | 111.8 |
| 5 | Andy Dalton | Bengals | 66.2 | 6-2 | 8.6 | 108.8 |
| Min. 30 attempts | ||||||
3. This could actually be a defensive battle
- Key stat: The Patriots have the league's No. 1 run defense and entered Week 11 ranked second in football with 30 sacks, while the Bills have given up 17 or fewer points a league-best five times.
All this talk so far has been about Brady's MVP-caliber numbers and Taylor breaking out within Buffalo's revamped offense, but the truth is both of these teams are pretty superb defensively.
In fact, entering Week 11, only the Bengals, Vikings and Broncos had allowed fewer points per game than the Pats (18.8). New England also has the league's fourth-highest sack rate (7.8) and has surrendered a league-low 88.0 rushing yards per game.
Of course, it's easy to succeed in those last two areas when your offense is spotting you big leads. But rate-based stats don't lie quite as easily as cumulative stats, and only nine defenses have posted stronger opposing yards-per-attempt averages.
Besides, five of New England's nine victories have come by a single score, so it's not as though they've been running away with every game. Keyed by NFL sack leader Chandler Jones, who along with Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins leads one of the best front sevens in football, this unit is legit.
Who needs Vince Wilfork or Darrelle Revis?
On the flip side, the Bills defense doesn't rank as highly as it did during a dominant 2014 campaign, but the talent is still there and they've been getting better after surrendering 40 points to the Pats in Week 2. Since then, Buffalo has allowed 17 or fewer points four times.
These two defenses have given up only eight 40-yard plays combined (five for Buffalo, three for New England), which places them in the top 10 and well ahead of the league average of 9.0 per team.
I know these teams combined for 72 points in Week 2, but don't look for an encore of that shootout in Week 11.
4. Pats could frequently use backs as receivers
- Key stat: When defending against running backs in the passing game, Buffalo's Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) of 33.7 percent ranks dead last in the NFL.
The Bills have surrendered an average of 54.1 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, which is bad but not terrible. The reason their DVOA is so bad is because they've had trouble with some non-traditional pass-catching backs and have given up some particularly big plays to backs in the passing game.
Three of the six longest completions against Buffalo this season have come from running backs, with Rashad Jennings scoring on a 51-yard catch in Week 4, Dion Lewis picking up a 40-yarder when these teams met in Week 2 and Chris Ivory gaining 36 yards on a pass and run last week.
Lamar Miller of the Dolphins also had three catches that picked up 20-plus yards against them in Week 9 (39 percent of Miller's receiving yards this season have come against Buffalo) and Giovani Bernard had a 23-yarder in Week 6.
That's seven big passing plays involving running backs, four of which came in the last two weeks.
New England won't have Lewis Monday night, but that might not stop the Patriots from aggressively attempting to expose that potential defensive flaw in a unit that is stout everywhere else, especially considering they're far from healthy elsewhere without Edelman and left tackle Nate Solder.
LeGarrette Blount did have a pair of catches last week, but that might also mean some opportunities for James White, who had four grabs against Jacksonville and three against the Jets.
5. The best a man can get
- Key stat: Since the start of 2013, the Patriots have won 23 of 24 home games in the regular season and playoffs, with the only loss coming in a meaningless tilt that saw them rest Brady and other key starters.
| NFL's best home teams since the start of 2009 | ||
| Rank | Team | Home record |
| 1 | Patriots | 49-4 |
| 2 | Packers | 44-8 |
| 3 | Ravens | 40-12 |
| 4 | Seahawks | 37-15 |
| 5 | 49ers | 37-15 |
| Entering Week 11 | ||
Yeah, that hollow Buffalo win in last year's regular-season finale? That's the only home game this team has lost at home in three years. And if you want to broaden the scope, they're 50-4 in their last 54 games in Foxboro, dating back to 2008.
This is a quarterback-driven league, though, so let's focus on games Brady has started and finished. Remember, he spent virtually the entire 2008 season on injured reserve. Dating back exactly nine calendar years, the Patriots are 60-3 in regular-season home games in which Brady was the primary quarterback.
Sixty. And three.
The Pats have also won seven consecutive prime-time games, home or away, and haven't lost in prime time at Gillette Stadium since falling to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in 2012. Their last Monday night home loss came in 2005.
Prediction: While I do believe Buffalo's trajectory is aiming upward and the banged-up Pats are beatable, you can't deny those numbers at home in prime time. New England by 10.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
