This is shaping up to be one of the best NFL Draft Thursdays in recent memory, because no one seemingly knows anything. Even the No. 1 pick, which by all accounts should be locked into Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, saw an upheaval in the betting market when a random Reddit poster claimed Kentucky quarterback Will Levis was told he would be Carolina's pick weeks ago. (Frank Reich essentially debunked that rumor on Wednesday when he said their chosen franchise quarterback has not been notified he's their pick yet.)
After No. 1, it's anyone's guess. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson, Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson and Levis himself have all been favorites to go No. 2 over the past two weeks. Stroud has alternated with the edge rushers as the favorite to go No. 3 (with the Stroud scenario requiring Arizona trade the pick), and neither of those scenarios may end up happening either with buzz an offensive tackle could be the pick even if the Cardinals don't trade down. At No. 4, the Colts have been strongly linked to Levis for a long time, but up until the last week or so it didn't seem possible Stroud would be available. Does that make a difference? Your guess is as good as mine.
I've done well in my mock drafts over the years at CBS Sports and SportsLine, hitting 30 of 32 players who went in the first round a year ago (apologies to Cole Strange and George Karlaftis) with many within one or two slots of where they were mocked. That led to turning in a top-five score at the site Grading the Experts. I bring that up not to toot my own horn (well, not only to toot my own horn), but to share I actually had a better score the previous year but ranked 15th. And that helps illustrate that the draft seems to be getting less predictable, not more.
To that end, this is my final mock draft of the season after posting multiple earlier versions on SportsLine over the last two weeks. You can find my top 10 picks below and the entire first round over at SportsLine, where I've also made over 1,000 against the spread picks since 2017, going 535-450-30. If you like breaking down the betting side of football (or any sport) and aren't yet subscribed, what are you waiting for?
While this is my final mock, I reserve the right to update it up until the draft starts today based on reporting I trust, so feel free to check back before 8 p.m. ET to see if anything has changed.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
The only pick we can actually have any certainty around 24 hours before the draft. The Panthers had to have a strong sense who they wanted when they executed the move up from No. 9, and it's apparently the quarterback everyone was trying to trade up for.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I'm buying into the Texans not being sold on the quarterbacks past their top-ranked guy in Young and not forcing one at No. 2. I also think if a trade down was going to happen, we'd have already seen it since everyone knows what's happening at No. 1. So being stuck at 2, I have the Texans going edge and worrying about quarterback later, and I'm going to overthink Anderson vs. Tyree Wilson when the former is likely higher on a majority of boards and back to being the favorite to go No. 2.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Johnson isn't the pick because Kyler Murray wants him necessarily -- he's stumped for prospects before and it hasn't mattered to the front office -- but I'm buying this being a fit. Johnson is the long-term replacement for 30-year-old D.J. Humphries at left tackle but until that time comes he has the position versatility to start elsewhere on an Arizona O-line that needs major help.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Back-to-back Buckeyes follow the Alabama pair as the Colts pass on Will Levis for the quarterback more commonly slotted in the top tier along with Bryce Young. There's potential Stroud goes No. 2 to the Texans, or No. 3 to the Titans or another team trading up,
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
A lot of smoke in the betting market that Carter is the pick, and he's a big enough favorite that I think it makes sense to back it even with a blue-chip edge rusher still on the board. Carter's upside is second to none in this class, so if this personnel team is comfortable it can navigate his baggage, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
I believe this is the floor for C.J. Stroud and that the Lions are a bigger factor for a QB than they're being given credit for, considering the upward trajectory of the team but the presence of Jared Goff, who isn't being engaged in extension talks, potentially limiting their ceiling. But with the two top-tier guys off the board, the Lions go chalk with the cornerback everybody is connecting them to and plot a potential quarterback move later in the draft.
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Mock Trade from
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 7
If Wilson sinks at all due to his medicals, it would be a major boon for a team with title aspirations in the Eagles, who benefit by packing No. 10 and 62 to move up three spots for the edge rusher. The Eagles are likely targeting the trenches as usual, and coming away with one of the top three defensive lineman in this draft would be a big win.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 8
At this point it's anyone's guess where Levis goes between No. 2 and No. 32. I'll buy the smoke on the Texans not wanting Stroud and probably having the top two edges ranked above the remaining QBs, but their spot at No. 12 allows them to get both Anderson and a QB. Here they give up No. 12 and 161 along with a 2024 second-rounder (which is key for Atlanta to use to maneuver around for a QB in next year's draft) for the opportunity to get back in the top 10.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Speculation that this pick could be Darnell Wright notwithstanding, the Bears are likely to target an O-lineman if Jalen Carter doesn't fall to No. 9, and Skoronski is the best one on the board. He be tried at offensive tackle first but projects as a Pro Bowler inside at guard.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Raiders saw an ideal scenario at No. 7 with a number of prospects that would be great fits still on the board, so moving back three spots and picking up a second-rounder should be a no-brainer knowing that one of those prospects will be available. Here it's Gonzalez, a favorite to be taken if they stick at No. 7 as it addresses a key position of need in a high-flying AFC West.
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Find the rest of this mock draft, along with daily spread, total, money line and prop picks, exclusively on SportsLine!
