Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green hasn't hid the fact that he wants Defensive Player of the Year. He's come up short the past two seasons as Kawhi Leonard's giant hands ripped it right out of Green's fingers. In a podcast interview with The Vertical, Green said that he wants the award "bad" this year and outright said he feels he's playing "incredible" defensively this season. His quotes, via CSN Bay Area, extensively quoted for discussion here:
"When you look at our defense, that's where we get hit at the most is in transition. When we get our set defense we're pretty good. So I look at the numbers and I think about those things, and then I also think about how this is a completely different type of defense -- it'll take a little time for all that to come together..."
"I think I've been incredible defensively this year. It's one of the things that I really locked in on; I focused in on. I'm so locked in on that end of the basketball (court) right now. It's fun. And I think part of the reason I'm so locked in on it is because of everybody talking about what we can't do on that end and how we'll struggle on that end -- just all the doubt on that end from everyone -- it just has me at another place mentally."
Through 13 games, the Warriors are allowing 108.6 points per contest -- the fifth worst mark in the league.The Spurs (97.6ppg) are sixth.
"When I look at that and say, 'Man our numbers our low, I wonder if people will vote for me?' Honestly, I don't think that will affect it ... this is no disrespect to Kawhi (Leonard), but the Spurs' defensive numbers will probably always be better than ours. Their pace is probably always a lot slower than ours, so they're usually playing a set defense, not getting beat in transition as much."
"If that did cost me, then hey, so be it. I'm trying to make it to the point this year where it will be hard to deny me that award. That's my focus and that's what I'm gonna try to do."
"I'm not a selfish guy when it comes to awards or stats ... this is one thing I'm very selfish about. I want to win that Defensive Player of the Year Award bad."
Source: Draymond wants Defensive Player of the Year bad: 'I've been incredible' | CSN Bay Area.
OK, there's a lot here, and it's all germane to the conversation.
About that Warriors-Spurs comparison ...
This is the area where Green's off. Yes, it's true that the Warriors play at the league's third-highest pace and the Spurs play at the fourth-slowest pace, so naturally the Warriors will give up more points and the Spurs will give up fewer. That's why we have this handy-dandy metric called "per 100 possessions." Its entire purpose is to factor for that differential in pace and provide an accurate picture of how a team performs on a per-possession as opposed to a per-minute basis, because you can have five possessions in a minute or three possessions in a minute and that changes things.
Except that the Spurs are the ninth-best defense per 100 possessions and the Warriors are ranked 20th. So the Spurs, when accounting for pace of play, are still great defensively and the Warriors are still very much not.
Green's right about the transition vs. halfcourt element
The Warriors give up the fifth-most fast-break points per game, and via Synergy Sports are ranked 24th in transition defense per possession. However, they are 13th in halfcourt defense per possession. Now, that number is not as great as Green makes it sound, but it's still good and the Warriors continue to improve.
The Warriors also lead the league in deflections, via NBA.com.
It also should be noted that transitions are a real problem for them. That's not as easy as it may seem to clean up. The Thunder attacked the Warriors in transition during last season's playoffs, and the Cavaliers followed the same formula, specifically vs. the Warriors' smallball lineups.
As for Green, the Warriors do give up more fastbreak points per 48 minutes with Green on the floor (15.9) than with Green on the bench (12.6), but then, their pace also goes up significantly as well.
The numbers (right now) favor Green individually over Leonard
Leonard's defensive metrics are not good right now. I know that sounds crazy and makes you want to throw them out completely, but it's not just one thing. Yes, the Spurs' defensive rating is significantly better, by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions, with Leonard on the bench vs. on the court. But it's not just that one metric which factors in overall defensive performance. Opponents are shooting 2.7 percent better vs. Leonard when he's guarding them, according to NBA.com, and he's in just the 53rd percentile of all individual defenders per possession via Synergy Sports.
The Warriors, on the other hand, are seven points better per 100 possessions with Green on the floor defensively, is in the 93rd percentile via Synergy, and opponents are shooting 4.7 percent worse vs. Green.
The eye test is going to check out on both. It should be noted that with Leonard, most of it is that simply no one tries him. The numbers on contests against Leonard are pitifully low, because everyone knows he's lock down. But he's also not making the same kind of impact from a team defensive standpoint, at least empirically, that Green is.
Green's got a good case for early season DPOY with less than a month of the season played. But so does Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Green's right, though, he's played incredible. Sure, he doesn't have to say that.
But then, this is Draymond we're talking about.
