After sweeping the Indiana Pacers in the first round, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have home-court advantage against the Toronto Raptors. These teams met last year in the Eastern Conference finals, which the Cavaliers won in six games, four by blowout. Game 1 will be Monday in Cleveland. Let's take a look at the matchup.
Why will this be different than last year?
For one, the Raptors have much more talent than they did at this time last year. Luis Scola started all six games at power forward and averaged 13.3 minutes. Bismack Biyombo started at center, with Jonas Valanciunas missing the first four games because of a sprained ankle. Cleveland essentially ignored both of them when Toronto was on offense. The Raptors don't play anyone who can be treated that way anymore, and their defense is worlds better than it was, thanks to the midseason acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. (Note: Aside from a meaningless game with stars resting on the final night of the regular season, these teams didn't play each other after those trades, so this preview will not feature any references to previous meetings this season.)
Toronto still does not have the star power that the Cavs do, but it does have the next best thing: depth and versatility. This is by far the most complete team the franchise has ever had -- it had the league's best offense through mid-January, and, with Ibaka and Tucker on board, it had the fourth-best defense after the All-Star break. This is not merely the Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan show.
In last year's conference finals, cult hero Matthew Dellavedova had the Cavaliers' best net rating: plus-22.1 points per 100 possessions. Channing Frye made 58.7 percent of his 3-pointers. The Raptors' second unit had killed opponents all season, but it got a taste of its own medicine when Cleveland's reserves rained 3s over and over. In Game 4, a bench-heavy lineup ran the same play seven times in a row and the Cavs scored on 14 consecutive fourth-quarter possessions.
This time, Toronto has a better shot at playing Cleveland even when the teams go to the bench. The Cavs' second unit still spaces the floor well, but it was awful defensively for the vast majority of the season. The Raptors, with Ibaka at center and a bunch of interchangeable reserves who stretch the floor, can match up with them well -- at least in theory.
The Raptors won Games 3 and 4 last year largely because of Cleveland playing poor defense. That defense been much worse for most of this season, and the Indiana series didn't exactly indicate that the problem has been solved.
But the Raptors struggled against the Bucks, didn't they?
Yeah, at times. They looked bad in Game 1, triggering familiar questions about their offense in the playoffs and their inability to start a series on the right note. In Game 3, they looked downright awful and lost by 27 points. In Game 6, they went away from the ball movement that built their 25-point lead, necessitating a late run to put the Bucks away. But Milwaukee was uniquely equipped to take Toronto out of rhythm by blitzing Lowry and DeRozan, helping and recovering.
When the Raptors' offense stalled, it was because Milwaukee overwhelmed their ball handlers with length. The Bucks then made multiple efforts in order to reset their defense if Lowry or DeRozan managed to get rid of the ball without turning it over. Milwaukee, however, has the most impressive collection of quick, long-limbed athletes in the league this side of the Golden State Warriors' Death Lineup.
The Cavaliers can trap Lowry and DeRozan if they want to, but Toronto just endured six games against a team that did it better than they can. Cleveland would be unwise to do too much of that, especially when its slower veterans are on the court.
The Cavs are a far more fearsome team than Milwaukee, but that's because of their almost unfair amount of offensive firepower. The Raptors should find it much easier to create open shots against them.
So you're saying the Raptors can actually pull this off?
They can, sure, but I'm not saying that they will. They need many things to go right. Toronto will definitely run a ton of pick-and-rolls at Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. It will try to make James into simply a scorer and keep him from finding Frye, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver for wide-open 3s as he pleases. Tucker, DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson are all likely to spend some time guarding James, though throwing different looks at him will not guarantee the Raptors success.
Cleveland is the more talented team here, and James is obviously the best player. This will be a series of adjustments, though, and there are many variables. Here are a few questions:
- Can Irving step up his defense against Lowry?
- Can Valanciunas limit Tristan Thompson's rebounding and score over him in the post?
- Can Carroll, Tucker, Patterson and Norman Powell hit enough 3s -- especially on the road -- to keep the Cavs defense honest?
- Can these teams play solid, physical defense without sending James or DeRozan to the free throw line repeatedly?
So, what will this look like?
I'll bet that this turns out to be not entirely dissimilar to the Cavs-Pacers series aesthetically. Most (if not all) of the games will be high-scoring, and many will come down to a) which team makes its open shots, and b) which team executes best in crunch time. Toronto has to hope it can score enough and keep enough speed on the floor that transition defense isn't an issue. Cleveland has to hope DeRozan doesn't exploit the holes in its defense to the point that it has to send a ton of help his way.
The thing to remember is that both of these teams have demonstrated wild, almost dumbfounding swings in their play. The Cavs became a fantastic defensive team when they absolutely needed to in the 2016 playoffs, and there remains the possibility they can summon some of that magic again. The Raptors have a nasty habit of completely falling apart on offense, and it's unclear if we have seen the last of that.
If both teams play to their identities, then this should be close, but inconsistency is woven into the fabric of those identities. This makes the series more unpredictable than most, particularly when Toronto has the ball.
The prediction
I went Cavs in seven, and Ethan Skolnick was the only one of CBS Sports' writers bold enough to pick the Raptors. I admire his guts in making that call, but I couldn't bring myself to bet against James. Cleveland's offense is so awesome I'm not sure Toronto can stop it, but Cleveland's defense is so pedestrian that I'm not sure it can stop Toronto. The Utah Jazz showed Sunday you can beat big names and experience with clever game-planning and adaptability, and that's what the Raptors will have to rely on.
