Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
I'm looking at Minnesota's bench here with Kyle Anderson dealing with a hip injury. You could go in a number of different directions. Nickeil Alexander-Walker played very well and is versatile enough that you could talk yourself into almost any of his props. My favorite on the board, though, is Naz Reid's 3-pointers. He fired off six of them in Game 1, but more importantly, Minnesota won his minutes by 22 points. There was some fear coming into this matchup that Phoenix would force Minnesota to play a bit smaller, but the opposite was true in Game 1. The Timberwolves can play big because of the spacing their non-Rudy Gobert bigs provide, and with Kevin Durant largely guarding Karl-Anthony Towns, Reid is going to have a lot of opportunities for quick-trigger 3's against slower bigs that want to hang near the rim. The Pick: Reid Over 1.5 3's
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
A lesson you learn from extensive postseason betting: don't abandon your pre-series beliefs based on a single game. Sometimes a team just plays badly. Does Damian Lillard scoring 35 points in a half against the NBA's stingiest 3-point defense twice in a row sound likely? How about Tyrese Haliburton attempting only seven shots? Is Rick Carlisle, the most creative in-series coach in the NBA with the possible exception of Erik Spoelstra, not going to have adjustments for an extremely limited defense? Giannis Antetokounmpo (left soleus strain) will miss Tuesday's game. I came into this series believing the Pacers were meaningfully better than the Bucks as long as Antetokounmpo remained out and I'm standing by that. The Pick: Pacers +1.5
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Same deal here as in the Pacers-Bucks series. I came into this thinking the Mavericks were better than the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is questionable, but the Clippers can afford to be a bit more cautious, having picked up a Game 1 win. If he's out, I still think the Mavericks are better. They had horrible shooting luck in Game 1, a lazy game plan, and just generally lacked energy. Shooting luck is mostly random, but the last two problems are entirely fixable. Come prepared for traps in pick-and-roll, adjust lineups to include a bit more shooting and either try to space Ivica Zubac off of the floor or find some way to help against him near the rim. These are fixable problems. Sometimes a team just plays badly in Game 1. That is largely what happened to the Mavericks. One game doesn't erase two dominant months. The Pick: Mavericks -2
