Entering his third NBA season and with Stan Van Gundy installed as the new head coach, this was supposed to be Pistons center Andre Drummond's breakout season. He showed flashes of being a dominant big man in his first two seasons, but was still extremely raw on the offensive end; Van Gundy was supposed to sand those raw edges down.
That hasn't quite happened yet, for a number of reasons, though his recent play is giving Fantasy players plenty of reason to be even more hopeful about the future. Drummond is averaging 18.0 points, 14.6 rebounds and 3.4 combined blocks and steals over the last seven games, which is more in line with what we were expecting of him.
There is one meaningful caveat to his recent play, however; it has come with Greg Monroe sidelined by a knee injury. The Pistons have undergone a ton of in-season roster turnover between injuries roster moves, but there has been one constant throughout; Drummond needs to be surrounded by shooters.
In 2015, this isn't exactly a revelation, though the Pistons' roster construction since Drummond was drafted might indicate that it is a more difficult concept to grasp than it might seem at first. Drummond's prodigious talents are easy to see, but so are his flaws.
Drummond is a tremendous talent who absolutely dominates in the pick and roll and offensive boards, scoring in the 80th percentile as the roll man in pick and rolls according to stats.NBA.com, while also leading the league by a massive margin in points scored on put backs. However, he is still extremely limited otherwise, scoring in just the 26th percentile on post-up opportunities, and having sank just two field goals from beyond 8 feet on the season.
With all of that in mind, building the blueprint for a team around Drummond isn't hard. You need a bevy of shooters and a point guard capable of running the pick and roll and feeding him easy shots. When Drummond is surrounded by shooters, as he has been over the last seven games with Anthony Tolliver replacing Monroe in the starting lineup, he can dominate; in 196 minutes played with Reggie Jackson as the point guard and Tolliver on the floor, Drummond is averaging 21.4 points and 15.6 rebounds per-36 minutes, elite Fantasy numbers.
And, perhaps more importantly than Drummond's personal production is the effect those lineups have had on the team. In 267 minutes with Drummond and Jackson on the floor and Monroe off, the Pistons are outscoring their opponents by 20.3 points per-100 possessions, according to NBAWowy.com.
Don't take that to mean Monroe is the problem, however. In 315 minutes with Drummond, Monroe and Brandon Jennings -- a 35.1 percent career 3-point shooter who showed a renewed commitment to sharing the ball in Van Gundy's offense before a season-ending Achilles injury -- on the floor, the Pistons outscored their opponents by 11.9 points per-100 possessions. That's not quite Drummond-Jackson levels of production, but it's enough to show that Drummond and Monroe can work.
Indeed, if you look at the significant lineup combinations featuring Drummond or Monroe this season, one trend becomes clear:
Units ranked in descending order of minutes played.
You can't put more than one non-shooter on the floor with Drummond if you want to succeed. Jackson-Drummond can work as a pairing, provided you have Tolliver, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks dotting the perimeter. Monroe and Drummond can work, provided your point guard can both run a pick and roll and hit his 3's, like Jennings can and Jackson cannot.
With Monroe an unrestricted free agent, Jackson a restricted free agent and Jennings recovering from one of the toughest injuries for an NBA player to come back from, the Pistons enter the offseason with as many questions as any team in the league.
Drummond, a strong, athletic big man who won't turn 22 until two and a half months before next season, is about as much of a sure thing as you can get when building a team, which is great news for Stan Van Gundy. However, where they decide to go with their roster will certainly impact Drummond's chances of hitting his considerable ceiling next season, so Fantasy owners will need to keep a very close eye on their plans when considering Drummond.
