When it comes to rematches that are heavily anticipated in the UFC, none may be more important to some fans than what we'll see in Calgary on Saturday night. In the main event of UFC on Fox 30, top lightweight contenders Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier will do battle once again.
Alvarez and Poirier were well on their way to producing a top fight at UFC 211 last year when Alvarez landed a pair of knees while Poirier was considered a grounded opponent. Instead of earning a disqualification, Alvarez was handed a no contest, leading to even more controversy.
Now, the two will finally settle things on Saturday with a lot more than a win on the line. Plus, we get the return of Jose Aldo when he faces off with veteran and rising title contender Jeremy Stephens as well as Joanna Jedrzejczyk looking to get back in the win column when she takes on Tecia Torres.
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Let's take a look at the full main fight card with the latest odds from Bovada.
| Favorite | Underdog | Weightclass |
|---|---|---|
Dustin Poirier -165 | Eddie Alvarez +135 | Lightweight |
Jose Aldo -125 | Jeremy Stephens -105 | Featherweight |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -300 | Tecia Torres +230 | Women's strawweight |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier -130 | Alexander Hernandez +100 | Lightweight |
With a big card on tap, our experts took a crack at picking each of the main card fights. Here are your pick makers: Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Matthew Coca (producer), Michael Mormile (producer), Jack Jorgensen (editor) and Brandon Wise (editor).
UFC on Fox 30 predictions
| Fight | Campbell | Mormile | Coca | Jorgensen | Wise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alvarez vs. Poirier | Poirier | Poirier | Poirier | Poirier | Poirier |
Aldo vs. Stephens | Aldo | Aldo | Aldo | Stephens | Stephens |
| Jedrzejczyk vs. Torres | Jedrzejczyk | Jedrzejczyk | Jedrzejczyk | Jedrzejczyk | Jedrzejczyk |
| Hernandez vs. Aubin-Mercier | Aubin- Mercier | Aubin-Mercier | Hernandez | Aubin-Mercier | Aubin-Mercier |
| Overall (2018) | 16-19-0 | 18-17-0 | 18-17-0 | 17-18-0 | 22-13-0 |
Campbell on why Poirier will win: Younger, hungrier and more precise. Those are the attributes favoring Poirier in a rematch of a fight he had largely been getting the better of when it was infamously stopped following Alvarez's illegal knees. Not only is Poirier, at 28, operating at the peak of his prime physically, he showed in a knockout of all-action Justin Gaethje that he's in his mental prime too after not buckling in the face of constant pressure and damage. While Alvarez has shown a long history of getting rocked and rallying back, as he did in Round 2 of their first fight, eventually the wars will catch up with him. Expect this to be the fight.
Jorgensen on why Stephens will win: It's just becoming increasingly harder for me to believe anymore that the legendary Aldo's head is still completely in the fight game, especially coming off two devastating knockout losses to Max Holloway. That said, with this being his first three-round, non-title fight in nine years, I have a more difficult time believing he's any more motivated than he was in three KO losses in his last four outings. Stephens, on the other hand, has done a hell of a job as of late emerging as a rising contender in the featherweight division. If this isn't the last fight in Aldo's career on Saturday, it'll be close to it as Stephens walks away with another knockout win.
Wise on why Jedrzejczyk will win: Plain and simple, Joanna Champion is the better fighter. Jedrzejczyk is coming off the first two defeats of her professional career at the hands of one of the most unique women's fighters today in Rose Namajunas. Now, she will face a completely different body type in Torres, who is a much more compact and close-range boxer. Expect to see a vintage Jedrzejczyk performance as she uses her speed and athleticism to stay at range and pick her spots while earning a decisive decision win.
