If an extension isn't signed before next offseason, Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta will hit free agency after the 2017 World Series. We've heard things here and there about a possible extension in the past, but most of the time the discussion ends with Arrieta seeming pretty confident in betting on himself.
Still, there's always the chance that the Cubs make Arrieta an offer he can't refuse, especially since he wasn't the Terminator anymore down the stretch in 2016. Arrieta's agent, Scott Boras, held court as usual at the Winter Meetings. He's always there throughout, for obvious reasons, and this nugget emerged Thursday:
I asked Scott Boras about talking long term deal for Arrieta. The window is now. Said when they discuss arb in Jan. it will come up
— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) December 8, 2016
The line on Boras clients is that they don't sign extensions and always hit free agency, but there are a few notable examples (Elvis Andrus, Jered Weaver). We saw a huge one this past summer when Stephen Strasburg signed a seven-year, $175 million contract to stay with the Nationals.
Arrieta won't be getting anywhere close to that in years from the Cubs, given that he's going to be 31 years old next season. Still, they could certainly afford as much in average annual value ($25 million a year to the Cubs won't be much in the coming years compared to their revenue).
Since being traded to the Cubs in 2013, Arrieta has gone 54-21 with a 2.52 ERA (153 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP and 630 strikeouts in 634 2/3 innings. Sure, a lot of that is propped up by his super-human second half in 2015, but overall he has been very good for more than just a season. Don't forget about his ninth-place finish in Cy Young voting in 2014.
Now, command did elude Arrieta in the second half last season, but maybe that's why it's an opportune time for the Cubs to strike now as opposed to paying when he was coming off 2015. He was still best in the majors with only 6.3 hits allowed per nine innings and then looked very good in his two World Series starts.
In terms of what it would take to get an Arrieta extension done, it's tough to find a comp. Cliff Lee always comes to mind for me. He was mostly bad but had a few good stretches before his age-29 season, when he broke out and won the Cy Young -- same as Arrieta. Two seasons later -- again, the same! -- Lee hit free agency. He signed a five-year, $120 million deal with the Phillies.
Elite starting pitching costs more now, but there are more elite-level arms out there. Plus, this is different because there's still a year left. Could Arrieta really turn down that kind of offer knowing that it's possible his command continues to leave him more often than not while risking injury?
Meantime, would the Cubs really pony up that much money for Arrieta, knowing it's possible he'll never regain his great command from 2015-early 2016? Then they would be paying him more than $20 million a season into his mid-30s.
The hunch here is nothing gets done, but it's fun theater for the offseason when we don't exactly have games to watch.
